bud2380 Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 We could probably fire up a thread by tomorrow for the weekend storm if it continues to show promise. All global models show it and most fairly strong. There are actually a few shots at snow in the next 7 days, so it has the potential to be active for a good portion of the forum. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Stacsh said: Looks like I’ll be golfing in mid-December. Hope to have winter come by Xmas. Until then, enjoy the mild weather. Peace. I stuck my hand into the lake yesterday thinking of taking out my jet ski lol. But no one else was out there, if I hurt myself or break down I am really screwed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Holy ridge after the storm next weekend 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: Well, there's definitely no denying that I enjoy winter weather! I'm not very creative and just quickly thought of a name while signing up 4 years ago and never bothered to change it I was thinking of another Team Qwerty member. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Had a low of 34, and upper 40's now. 21 and freezing fog at my last place. Does Kentucky get fog much? Are you in your new house? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Mr Marine Layer said: Are you in your new house? Yes I've been at the house since late November. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 hours ago, Stacsh said: No longer longer wintery in SMI in the near future. Bring back the clipper pattern! GRR Quote NOTE: When we issue this headline, it will be from 1 block NORTH of Stacsh's house, on north to US10. Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GRR I’m ok with 1 day of wind and blowing snow that won’t amount to much , but come on. Blow torch coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I’m ok with 1 day of wind and blowing snow that won’t amount to much , but come on. Blow torch coming. That was talking about the front-end snow/mix. You are north of 96, correct? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, jaster220 said: That was talking about the front-end snow/mix. You are north of 96, correct? By about a mile. I was reading the rest of the discussion lol. Might get some flakes and freezing drizzle but should turn to plain rain as usual. I like storms though so hoping for a decent snow squall and wind on the back side. But yes. 96 seems to separate storms like the system is conscious and knows the dividing line. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS crapping the bed for the late week system next week....... 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 No snow on the ground will just make it easier when it goes back to ridging and highs in the 50s after this coming week 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: GRR Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark. I’m down to 28.4 atm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 540 line all the way to Hudson Bay in mid December. 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS says bye bye late week storm. It would be gone anyway if the ridge after it verifies. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 and now does the EURO and CMC and even ICON... Dec is setting up to be an epic fail for those who deemed it cold and snowy for the majority reading. I dont see any cold air until maybe the last 11 days of the month.... For sure the 1st half is going to be near 10F above normal for many. 3 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: and now does the EURO and CMC and even ICON... Dec is setting up to be an epic fail for those who deemed it cold and snowy for the majority reading. I dont see any cold air until maybe the last 11 days of the month.... For sure the 1st half is going to be near 10F above normal for many. Ya, it's pretty much trending that way...looks like I'll be doing some more outdoor grilling in DEC...I almost don't care to see any snow from the possible system next weekend bc it'll be gone in a day or two. 2 things: 1) Terrible Teleconnections 2) Polar Vortex not playing ball 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Time to wave the white flag like the hawkeyes after a few cold days then back to a torch. Cycle 2 must be 115 days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 First off congrats to Michigan and their big win over Iowa last night! The overnight low here was 28 and with cloudy skies it is now 31. Yesterday the official high at GRR was 41 with a lot of sunshine before the clouds moved in. The first 4 days of December have been very mild and the departure for the month is now at +3.8 and so far just 0.6" of snow fall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 You can't put together a worse set of teleconnections than what we have right now. Hope the MJO can help in a week or so. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 28 for a low in Ashland. First day this month the sun didn't come out at least in the morning anyhow. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: 540 line all the way to Hudson Bay in mid December. If its gonna be that warm, I hope it produces storms. Otherwise, lol. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: If its gonna be that warm, I hope it produces storms. Otherwise, lol. Looks like western Ky has a shot of severe weather today. What part of Kentucky are you in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Looks like western Ky has a shot of severe weather today. What part of Kentucky are you in? Ashland is right along the Ohio river, so far eastern. There are commuters from WV/OH driving through Ashland daily. I think Charleston NWS covers our weather and alerts. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 I think I'm just a 15 minute drive from both Ohio and West Virginia from here. The bridges are pretty close to my house. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 11 hours ago, Stacsh said: By about a mile. I was reading the rest of the discussion lol. Might get some flakes and freezing drizzle but should turn to plain rain as usual. I like storms though so hoping for a decent snow squall and wind on the back side. But yes. 96 seems to separate storms like the system is conscious and knows the dividing line. If 96 went ENE from MKG instead of ESE, it would be the perfect dividing line of the 2 wx zones for the LP of Michigan. So yeah, it's often the case. Hopefully, the backside LES over-performs for SWMI. I know APX is expecting it to for NWMI, but they get the best ingredients further north. Looking like Nov and Dec swapped roles again this season for here. Oh well won't have to deal with slippery roads and all that comes with a snowy Dec during the busiest time of year. One small silver lining. Enjoy the squalls tomorrow. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Thunderstorms do excite me if you haven't noticed. Back in central-eastern Oregon it was maybe twice a year we'd see a severe t'storm watch issued by the SPC. 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: and now does the EURO and CMC and even ICON... Dec is setting up to be an epic fail for those who deemed it cold and snowy for the majority reading. I dont see any cold air until maybe the last 11 days of the month.... For sure the 1st half is going to be near 10F above normal for many. If that system wasn't going to be followed by another shot of arctic cold, it was DOA so not really surprised to see the models do a turn-about on it's development. Just so sad how nothing works in December any more. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 I'm legit starting to get concerned they're going to close down the ski resorts for part of december. It's going to sleet/rain/snow today, I was out Friday and the base was already so low dirt was popping up in spots. We are getting this little three day stretch of really good snow making weather and it looks like everyone is going to have to hang on until after the 20th if these models verify. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Uneventful December doesn't surprise me, but nothing in Oct or Nov either does. Going to have to start watching for latest measurable snows. December 31, 2006 for both Omaha and Lincoln. 7.5" fell that day in Lincoln. 3 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 The latest GFS has a week of 50s to near 60º here next week. If it's not going to snow (no snow through Xmas on the GFS), then I'll gladly take mild air. 4 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Sunrise from Dec 1st I forgot to share. 8 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 So I’ve been told that if I thought November and December was warm then wait til Jan. Record heat is on the table. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, GDR said: So I’ve been told that if I thought November and December was warm then wait til Jan. Record heat is on the table. Warmth in November is more understandable but crazy in January. Nov can be a wild card month especially where I lived before. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 I see the fun already started in western KY. 3 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 There is a good trace amount of snow on the ground and at this time getting freezing rain and sleet here with a temperature of 31. Roads are mostly wet with some icy spots more so in parking lots. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 17 hours ago, jaster220 said: GRR Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark. looks like just north of my house they are getting some significant frozen precipitation judging by road conditions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 Sun angle is about the same as January 6 today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 There looks to be rather heavy snow falling at this time in Houghton Michigan. https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/view/ And there looks to be a good amount of snow on the ground in the Gaylord area at this time. http://www.snowmancam.com/ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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