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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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26 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its a cold day today. Currently at 23F. A couple of flurries flying, but very sporadic.

Ditto over here...was out shopping earlier and with the Christmas carols on in all the stores it sorta put me in the holiday mood.  Would love to see more snow before the holidays!

Screen Shot 2021-12-07 at 1.54.40 PM.png

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4f60fWNqZjI

Not sure if this link attached correctly but anyone looking to get in the holiday Spirit take a look at this web cam, it’s up in a little town in north west lower MI called Harbor Springs. The town looks like they could film a Hallmark Christmas movie there. Their Expecting 6” of new snow into tomorrow and possibly a bunch more going into the weekend. The camera is mounted to the top of a church steeple in the middle of town. My wife and I, her parents and her sister/brother n law bought a place up there back in April for a family retreat. We also rent it through a local rental agency occasionally. After spending some time up there the pas 6 months my wife and I agree this is going to be our retirement area, it’s one of the prettiest areas in MI I feel. So anyone looking to see a beautiful snowy seen check this webcam out when you can.

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Geez, Thursday and Friday will see us at 80*.  
This weather will surely kill us.  Then back into the 50’s.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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GRR saying there might be a Meso-Low tomorrow morning. IF it materializes, a small-ish region will get hit with a nice surprise.

Quote
What really gets things going is toward morning the exit region of
a 140 knot jet core comes in phase with a strongly digging
northern stream shortwave. That will really "kick" up the lake
effect snow bands from near Holland to Muskegon since there will
be a surface low to add curvature to low level wind field. The 950
to 850 mb lift is very impressive in a narrow area over from near
Holland to Sparta at 7 am. Likely there will be some narrow bands
of snowfall with rates near or maybe greater than an inch an
hour. This conditions will not last long through. Once the jet
core moves inland, by noon, the activity will fall apart. This
looks like one of those MESO-Low type events. We will have to
monitor this but there could be some significant travel impacts
on US-31 and maybe I-96 near MKG if this really happens.

Only a small fraction of our CWA will see any impacts from this
event but where it does happen, travel will be challenging.

The new snow grids show up to 4 inches of snow possible near
Holland Wednesday morning.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gaylord continues to Rake!

image.png.8c33e80485c7bd342f14d212ddb590bf.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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31 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

December 15th or April?

70s with dews at or near 60.

This morning's Euro also has 70º with a 60º dew in Cedar Rapids next Wednesday.  That would be seriously impressive.  Cedar Rapids' record high that day is 55º.  The December record is 69º.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Alright, alright, alright....this morning my intuition drew me towards dialing down on this years LRC pattern.  Like many of you who follow the LRC, this year has been quite the year trying to figure out the cycle length.  Here is my analysis of the pattern and I'd like your opinion on this.  Remember that Hurricane that formed near Bermuda in early Oct and raced towards Greenland??  Doesn't this animation look similar??

2.gif

 

The more I look deeper into this pattern and the storm we are tracking for this week, it appears to me that the "inside slider" that is tracking currently offshore of CA is part of the pattern that developed Oct 8th-12th.  What are your thoughts?  

As @Grizzcoatposted in the storm thread, there will be two pieces of energy along the west coast (2nd Inside slider in early Oct)...that will form into a strong SLP down near the "SLOT".  What transpired back in Oct was convoluted with so many pieces of energy, waves, etc that it makes it very complicated and complex trying to dial down the cycle length.  Are we seeing a 58-60 day cycle....or...60-62 day???  

 

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59 minutes ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright....this morning my intuition drew me towards dialing down on this years LRC pattern.  Like many of you who follow the LRC, this year has been quite the year trying to figure out the cycle length.  Here is my analysis of the pattern and I'd like your opinion on this.  Remember that Hurricane that formed near Bermuda in early Oct and raced towards Greenland??  Doesn't this animation look similar??

2.gif

 

The more I look deeper into this pattern and the storm we are tracking for this week, it appears to me that the "inside slider" that is tracking currently offshore of CA is part of the pattern that developed Oct 8th-12th.  What are your thoughts?  

As @Grizzcoatpotorm sted in the storm thread, there will be two pieces of energy along the west coast (2nd Inside slider in early Oct)...that will form into a strong SLP down near the "SLOT".  What transpired back in Oct was convoluted with so many pieces of energy, waves, etc that it makes it very complicated and complex trying to dial down the cycle length.  Are we seeing a 58-60 day cycle....or...60-62 day???  

 

I lean in the direction of the 60-62 day.  The cutoff low part of the pattern verified at 62 days and if the timing goes as modeled this week this storm will verify at 60 days.  Gary listed some dates on the news for later this month for chances of snow and seems to be using a 60 day cycle.  The hard cutter for next week and the hurricane Patriica part of the pattern has been showing up at times and looks to be running at 60 days as well.

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While GRR reported around a half inch of new snow overnight here at my house there have been just a few flurries. However I still have a inch of snow on the ground from the snow that fell before while most of the area to the south of me only had a dusting on the ground at best yesterday afternoon. The overnight low here at my house was 21 and at this time it is 23 with snow light snow falling.

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Snowed a tiny bit, only 1/10th inch. 

IMG_4511.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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@Tom@Clinton

Using the 00z Canadian and 06z GFS I thought these were the best 500mb matches. I think the cycle is around 59-60 days. I think the 57 day match below may adjust as we get closer to the date. Verifying when Oct 11 and Oct 13 occur this time around should clear things up (hopefully...lol). You guys are pretty good at this and I'm no expert so "buyer beware"...lol

Oct 6 = Dec 4 (59 days)

Oct 11 = Dec 9 (59 days)

Oct 13 = Dec 11 (59 days)

Oct 20 = Dec 16 (57 days)

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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26 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@Tom@Clinton

Using the 00z Canadian and 06z GFS I thought these were the best 500mb matches. I think the cycle is around 59-60 days. I think the 57 day match below may adjust as we get closer to the date. Verifying when Oct 11 and Oct 13 occur this time around should clear things up (hopefully...lol). You guys are pretty good at this and I'm no expert so "buyer beware"...lol

Oct 6 = Dec 4 (59 days)

Oct 11 = Dec 9 (59 days)

Oct 13 = Dec 11 (59 days)

Oct 20 = Dec 16 (57 days)

Oct 24 = Dec 23rd

Oct 28 = Dec 27th

Gary is beginning to hype up a few storms Christmas week, that would make up for a slow start imo.  The question is will it get cold?

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Oct 24 = Dec 23rd

Oct 28 = Dec 27th

Gary is beginning to hype up a few storms Christmas week, that would make up for a slow start imo.  The question is will it get cold?

It's got to balance right?  Usually after a huge warmup like what is being forecasted next week, it's gotta come crashing back down at some point.  

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No winter here, but we are  rockin' and a rollin' this morning! 4.3 earthquake at 7:45 AM this morning centered in central Kansas. I could easily feel it here with a brief shake and rattling of things. It's like living in California here with warm weather and earthquakes...lol!

"...The U.S. Geological Survey says a small earthquake was centered in Southern Saline County. According to the agency a magnitude 4.3 earthquake was centered about 3.1 miles south /southwest of Gypsum. The earthquake happened Wednesday morning at 7:45. The earthquake was felt throughout Central Kansas and South into Oklahoma. There were no immediate reports of damage. Earthquakes of this magnitude, ranging between 2.5 and 5.4, are often felt but only cause minor damage."

https://www.ksal.com/4-3-magnitude-earthquake-centered-near-gypsum/

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Oct 24 = Dec 23rd

Oct 28 = Dec 27th

Gary is beginning to hype up a few storms Christmas week, that would make up for a slow start imo.  The question is will it get cold?

Yeah it would be great to get some real winter around here sooner rather than later for a change. Hopefully we get some cold air to work with.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 minute ago, someweatherdude said:

Serious question.  Is it necessary or even worth trying to nail it down to an exact number of days?  Isn't it just as useful to say the cycle is 55-60 days.  Or even 55-65 days?  I have to imagine that, even assuming the LRC is totally valid (and I think there's something to it), it doesn't work like a clock.  It's more like a heartbeat that can speed up or slow down from time to time.  

Maybe you guys are just trying to get an exact number for academic purposes.  And that's cool.  Just wondering if even Gary thinks it's truly like a clock.  

No there is a variance, usually +/-2 days or so.  I've been trying to nail it down tighter because one of the stronger storms should be timed to arrive just before Christmas.  With an even larger storm after that between then and New Years, so lot of people traveling.

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15 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Serious question.  Is it necessary or even worth trying to nail it down to an exact number of days?  Isn't it just as useful to say the cycle is 55-60 days.  Or even 55-65 days?  I have to imagine that, even assuming the LRC is totally valid (and I think there's something to it), it doesn't work like a clock.  It's more like a heartbeat that can speed up or slow down from time to time.  

Maybe you guys are just trying to get an exact number for academic purposes.  And that's cool.  Just wondering if even Gary thinks it's truly like a clock.  

That explains it to a “T” how I interpret the usefulness of the LRC.  The “River of Air” aloft is just that, a “River”, that slows and speeds up.  The cycle length cannot be pinned down to just one day, but instead, a few days window. 

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sadly, it’s More snow so far this year than Chicago…

There would also already have been a moderate snowstorm or two by this point in Klamath Falls OR other years, but I think I'll like Springs and Falls more over here.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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GFS and Euro both show a strong low forming next week and tracking it near me. Not much similarity between the models past that, as GFS brings it over me with hella moisture although half of that falls as rain, whereas Euro brings it South of me with not much moisture and a mere 2" snowfall. 

Can I just get a Euro track with a GFS amount of PWATs?

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It's got to balance right?  Usually after a huge warmup like what is being forecasted next week, it's gotta come crashing back down at some point.  

Weather patterns can tend to last from 30 to 45 days. It could be late January or February before there is a pattern change (think last winter) we shall see

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44 minutes ago, Tom said:

Records low/highs will be shattered...heck, even DP records???

Tom, this is incredible. KC may have a low Wednesday morning 65-70 with some humidity. Its really hard to warm up this time of year with the sun angle, Tuesday and Wednesday next week per the GFS could shatter records. CMC is very warm too. 

 

I wake up every day saying..."Come on GFS, show me some change"

12z GFS today, still showing spring time in KC until further notice.  Had we not had this 24 day dry spell, the grass here in KC may still be in full growth. We're still growing some, but, had it been wet, weekly mowing might still be going. 

 

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We now have 7 days of December 2021 in the record books. With the very mild look to at least the next week or more it now looks like December 2021 has a good chance of ending up warmer than average. As of this AM Grand Rapids has a mean temperature of 33.5° and that is right at average after 7 days. So far this month GRR has recorded 2.7" of snow fall and that is 1" below the average of 3.7" for the season so far GRR is at 12.4" and that is +1.3". At Muskegon the mean so far is 35.6 and that is a departure of +0.8° Snow fall is at 0.8" average after 7 days is 4.1" for the season so far Muskegon is at 6.4" that is a departure of -4.2" At Lansing they have a December mean of 35.5° and that is a departure of +2.7° in the snow fall department there has only been 0.4" reported at Lansing this month and for the season so far they have officially reported 6.1" and that is -0.3"  So far December has been near or above average in temperatures and below average in snow fall and the season only Grand Rapids is just above average in snow fall.

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2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Serious question.  Is it necessary or even worth trying to nail it down to an exact number of days?  Isn't it just as useful to say the cycle is 55-60 days.  Or even 55-65 days?  I have to imagine that, even assuming the LRC is totally valid (and I think there's something to it), it doesn't work like a clock.  It's more like a heartbeat that can speed up or slow down from time to time.  

Maybe you guys are just trying to get an exact number for academic purposes.  And that's cool.  Just wondering if even Gary thinks it's truly like a clock.  

Just to add to what others have said, when I state a specific number I think of it as a midpoint so to speak knowing it can vary by a few days shorter or longer from cycle to cycle.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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