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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm almost inclined to say "we've seen who the winners will be" for the winter. Maybe not EVERY week of winter, but overall I think the flavor of our winter has been seen. We're stuck hoping blocking will save us. This is the new norm. Back in the day, winter just was, we didn't have to chase blocking episodes in order to see snow. November was a decent example of this, it just got cold and snowed. Anymore tho, November snows are bad ju-ju, and December's become a real crap-shoot coming up snake eyes more and more on the regular! I did enjoy some "replacement November" wx today tho. It was a day good to be outside, and many folks were. 

This must be what people in southern Indiana or Kentucky feel like in winter all the time.   What a terrible feeling.  Not warm.  But not wintery.  At least they get sun though.  I miss the days when I was younger.  Maybe the snow piles seem to last longer and bigger because I was little, but I’m 41 now and feel like there’s been 1 awesome and 1 decent winter in the last 15 years.  

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9 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

This must be what people in southern Indiana or Kentucky feel like in winter all the time.   What a terrible feeling.  Not warm.  But not wintery.  At least they get sun though.  I miss the days when I was younger.  Maybe the snow piles seem to last longer and bigger because I was little, but I’m 41 now and feel like there’s been 1 awesome and 1 decent winter in the last 15 years.  

Yep, and we're the lucky(ier) ones to have seen plow-able snow already. Many haven't.

Younger, as in under 10, or your teen/young adult years?

The 80's were "mostly good" thru 85-86 (82-83 Mega Nino aside), then a couple off years for SEMI where I was living before 89-90 was at least respectable. The next 7 winters I was in TC and not really following downstate winters (pre-www remember).

And yes, I think snow piles do seem bigger when you're young, that does make sense. But for my youth, the 70's really were a very snowy (and cold) era for the Lwr Lakes, it wasn't just my lack of adult perspective.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Apologizing in advance if you've all seen this already.

This is the stuff nightmares are made of. After learning some details about what the Flint/Beecher F5 twister was like as a kid, I had bad dreams that a black wedge TOR was coming across the farm fields to the immediate west of my folk's neighborhood heading right towards me! (the gentleman who bought my childhood home in '86 actually out-ran the twister as a teen back in '53).

Later, as a young adult I worked at GM's facilities in Flint just a few miles S of where the path was. Several older gents there remembered that fateful day, and even lived somewhat closer to the damage zone. One guy's uncle had a farm about a mile west of where it touched-down. A man of color had stopped by to discuss a little tilling project for side cash when It came over the farm without warning so they hit the ditch. It ripped their shoes off and bent the silo over! When the man seeking the work got back home to his place in Beecher, he learned that his wife and all 3 children were killed. How merciless these stronger TORS can be, especially back in that pre-warning era.

I get chills watching this:

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some interesting info wrt how many times ORD has 60+ over the years.  Ironically, during one of the coldest & snowiest winters in Chicago's history (1977), it hit 60F on Dec 17th.  This year, we will likely hit 60F+ on back-to-back days this week (15th & 16th).

1.jpeg

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With this December looking more than likely to end up well above average this will be the 4th above average December in a row here at Grand Rapids and the 7th in the last 10 years. Also 6 of the last 10 Decembers have less then 10" of snow fall (that has brought down the 30 year December average to 20.8") and a total of 7 of the past 10 Decembers have had well below average snow fall. Of course the other 3 in the last 10 have had well above average snow fall so sort of a feast or famine in the snow fall department.

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^^-- still some ways to go. But being this is my first year really following the "LRC"-- (and been a weather pro that pays the bills for the last 22 years) --- I really see no merit in the "LRC". At least not this year. Maybe this year is an outlier. Maybe the "LRC" will come to play as it did a few years ago in the Chiefs playoff game. Something says sooooo NO. The worldwide in teleconnections don't show ---and it's not going to snow for most reading this.  "LRC" ? what is the cycle? and where are the storms?   Just asking. Open to anything. But this "LRC" seems a little far fetched when it get's broken down into actual regions. I don't think it's good enough to pinpoint a system 500mb layer within 1000-2000 miles at 10 days (240 hours). At least not to forecast it. All these rain storms in OCT- when S- where did they go- OK N. But this pattern that had heavy rain in OCT for most reading is not producing.  Sorry for the rant- just saying what has transpired after the "LRC" has supposedly cycled through.  

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Some interesting info wrt how many times ORD has 60+ over the years.  Ironically, during one of the coldest & snowiest winters in Chicago's history (1977), it hit 60F on Dec 17th.  This year, we will likely hit 60F+ on back-to-back days this week (15th & 16th).

1.jpeg

Yeah, that brief Dec relaxing period in '77 has been mentioned elsewhere. Ofc, that was the golden era when torching was more the exception, not the rule. There was also a twister in Jan of '67 with the torch that led up to the bliz iirc. The old "mid-winter thaw" isn't always a bad thing. But you kinda need winter first like in '67 & '77 to call it that.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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47 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^-- still some ways to go. But being this is my first year really following the "LRC"-- (and been a weather pro that pays the bills for the last 22 years) --- I really see no merit in the "LRC". At least not this year. Maybe this year is an outlier. Maybe the "LRC" will come to play as it did a few years ago in the Chiefs playoff game. Something says sooooo NO. The worldwide in teleconnections don't show ---and it's not going to snow for most reading this.  "LRC" ? what is the cycle? and where are the storms?   Just asking. Open to anything. But this "LRC" seems a little far fetched when it get's broken down into actual regions. I don't think it's good enough to pinpoint a system 500mb layer within 1000-2000 miles at 10 days (240 hours). At least not to forecast it. All these rain storms in OCT- when S- where did they go- OK N. But this pattern that had heavy rain in OCT for most reading is not producing.  Sorry for the rant- just saying what has transpired after the "LRC" has supposedly cycled through.  

There are literally storms every day across the continent.  Pinpointing which storms is recurring when is far fetched.

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For Topeka, the winter of 2021-2022 is starting to look like the winters of 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 in terms of precipitation. In both of those winters, Topeka received very little measurable precip and snowfall from mid-late Nov until mid Jan. This winter seems to be following the same pattern so far. In those two previous winters, seasonal snowfall finished under 10 inches.

2001-2002: Nov 25-Jan 17 (54 days):  precip: 0.16"; snow: 0.0"; total snow: 9.4"

2002-2003: Nov 15-Jan 14 (61 days):  precip: 0.05"; snow: 0.4"; total snow: 5.8"

2021-2022: Nov 15-Dec 12 (28 days):  precip: 0.00"; snow: 0.0"; total snow (so far): 0.0"

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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26 minutes ago, inferno said:

There are literally storms every day across the continent.  Pinpointing which storms is recurring when is far fetched.

Yeah, I find this whole idea of "this is the same system as the one on October 11th..."  hilarious.  There is always a storm that's going to look similar to a storm months ago somewhere in the area.  I don't buy it.   Oh the cycle is 47 days, oh wait, 51, no this is the 63 day cycle storm....It's all to generate clicks, in my opinion.  It's a good theory, but rarely predicts any type of pattern and actual storms.   And when it get's one right, well that's just coincidence, but used to back it up as fact.  

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Last year these dates in DEC just W of DSM . This year= brown. Just saying. It did melt by Christmas .But far cry from this year with all the hoopla. No photo description available.No photo description available.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It's going to take a lot to make this winter even normal-- both temps/precip/snowfall  to the 30yr avgs.  I wont show the pics but I got dandelions still growing--- this DEC is a major bust for nearly all that made predictions. (including myself). 

Now 300 miles to the N (much like last year) is completely different. Mother Nature gives and she takes.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Last year these dates in DEC just W of DSM . This year= brown. Just saying. It did melt by Christmas .But far cry from this year with all the hoopla. No photo description available.No photo description available.

I miss the white stuff. Had too little of it for a couple winters running.

Here's one from APX's (very tardy) post-storm write-up on the system a week ago.

 

NMI Snowstorm.jpg

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Something to keep an eye on:

NOAA:
The main baroclinic zone is expected to stall out over portions of
the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys Thursday/Friday before
advancing northward for the weekend. Latest forecast data suggests a
more winter like system for Southeast Michigan during the weekend.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, GDR said:

I think anything above 0% is highly unlikely. What’s the Latest inch of snow on record for a season in Des Moines? I think that will be broken this year

 

I doubt it. Feb 2nd, 1989.

Top 15 latest 1" or more snows for DSM. DSM has some pretty paltry "lack of snow" records that many are shocked at.  DEC 2002 (T) being one of them.

At this rate- might as well go into early JAN and than BANG like 1971 (13.6" ) or 1890 (12.0")

image.png.be233b6679ca63bd079c0b3560fa4265.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yesterday was kind of a rare December day here in west Michigan. There was 100% of sunshine and warm temperatures. The official high here in Grand Rapids was 47 it is not too often we have sunny and warm days in December.

The overnight low here at my house so far has been 24 and that is the current temperature. Tomorrow night looks like it could once again get rather windy as yet another deep low moves to our west and north west.

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A good frost this morning and hit at least 25 degrees. Clear skies.

All the leaves on the ground are nice and crispy. 

IMG_4560.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday was kind of a rare December day here in west Michigan. There was 100% of sunshine and warm temperatures. The official high here in Grand Rapids was 47 it is not too often we have sunny and warm days in December.

The overnight low here at my house so far has been 24 and that is the current temperature. Tomorrow night looks like it could once again get rather windy as yet another deep low moves to our west and north west.

I enjoy reading your daily posts, our son goes to Grand Valley so it’s nice seeing what type of weather he’s dealing with out there. 

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

GFS has us hitting 70+ AGAIN!! This time on 12/23😆

3 previous times total in past 135 years? How about going for 3 times this month alone?!!

Not surprising as we had ample warning back in September and October that Decemburrrrrrrr would be historic.  And it just might be if the above comes to fruition… 🌞 

Already looking forward to next years outlook.  Is summer cancelled yet 😆 

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45 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

Not surprising as we had ample warning back in September and October that Decemburrrrrrrr would be historic.  And it just might be if the above comes to fruition… 🌞 

Already looking forward to next years outlook.  Is summer cancelled yet 😆 

One of our local mets bought in back in late Oct, early Nov. And basically stated this will NOT be a repeat of December's past and will be a fairly fast start to winter.  He was obviously wrong, but a lot of people were saying this.   I wanted to buy in so much, but again, I'm a show me before I believe it type of person.  So I didn't believe it and apparently was somewhat right.  We've had some snow, but no staying power and now well below normal.  Long range looks bleak, but that can change quick.  Does look like we are going back to normal temps, so with that will come chances at light snow here.  Good news for me is that Lake Michigan is still primed for LES, if we ever get a cold artic cold shot.   Problem is, like I stated last month...Tis the season of warm cutters for SMI.  I'd rather it be warmer with more snow, than cold and blah with no snow.  With that comes warm ups though.  And that's not too bad.  

All I really want in winter is two weeks of snow and cold around the Holidays.  And maybe one awesome snowstorm to track, only to be disappointed by the dry slot or thermal issues.   Then bring on spring.  February and March were decent last year with some warm ups.  So hopefully a repeat of that this year.  

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58 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

I enjoy reading your daily posts, our son goes to Grand Valley so it’s nice seeing what type of weather he’s dealing with out there. 

Back in the late 90's early 2000's when I was at GVSU, we'd get a ton of LES.  It's been missing out there lately.  

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15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS has one below avg high temp (by only 1º) in my area the rest of this month.

I don't dig into the tele-connections personally, but I'm going out on a limb and guessing all the positive looking trends for the EPO/NAO/AO etc (not to mention the MJO) were another fake-out from the cyber world of models.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I don't mean to beat a dead horse- but this month is done S of 43N and west of 90 longitude when it comes to late month DEC weather. An epic bust. One of the worst busts of all time in reading not only this forum- but also paid professionals such as PP at Accu-WX and JB at WeatheBell. Only Jan of 05' comes to mind as such a bust-- but to the opposite- FEB 2021' a month out from--- CFS and many paid pros had no clue of the epic cold.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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