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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Could there be flashes of Hope as we open the New Year???  The models are struggling big time as the EPS is going back n forth wrt to pressing the cold or not.  Is the MJO going to play ball?  How about the EPO or PNA???  I'll tell ya, I do like the fact that the PNA is forecast to relax quite a bit from its duldrums next week.

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It appears that the models have all cooled the northern half of the Sub from I-80 on north during the NYE/New Year period...I'm watching for a potentially significant storm during the later parts of the 1st full week of JAN.  My original call was between the JAN 7th-11th but that may have to be tweaked.

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So these are the 5-day mean temp trends beginning Day 5...

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Good morning. The official overnight low at GRR was 30 here at my house the overnight low was 33. At this time it is cloudy and 37 here. The snow that was on the ground is now all gone. This year will be the 7th green Christmas in the last 11 years. In the last 4 years only last year had snow on the ground for Christmas. On average over the last 120 years 65% have had snow on the ground at GR.

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KC will be going for a record high of 68 today, previous record is 66.

0nJUMs1r_normal.jpg

Good morning KC & surrounding areas! Here's the rundown for your Christmas Eve forecast 🎄🎅 1) Record highs likely with temperatures that would be normal for late April! 🌡️🔥 2) Breezy SW winds 🍃 3) Showers are possible late this evening into the early overnight
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Seattle next week will be in the icebox (that is if you go by their average high and low) w daytime temps in the 20s and lows will be teens. How about that!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Good morning. The official overnight low at GRR was 30 here at my house the overnight low was 33. At this time it is cloudy and 37 here. The snow that was on the ground is now all gone. This year will be the 7th green Christmas in the last 11 years. In the last 4 years only last year had snow on the ground for Christmas. On average over the last 120 years 65% have had snow on the ground at GR.

And I got a lump of coal in Marshall last Christmas!

 

20201226 NOHRSC 72hr snowfall.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Folks, there is snow otg here in my area, but can it hold till tomorrow. Geez, how close to having some snow here on Christmas Day. We will see...but I have a feeling, it will all melt away by tomorrow as showers move in and milder temps. Colder air arrives late pm tomorrow w temps falling into the 30s. Even some flurries are possible, if there is enough instability in the air to squeeze em out.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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TWC is going w/ some big changes for many, but when?!....Can that "Arctic Air" finally make it down here?! lets see what happens!

https://s.w-x.co/1224coldblast.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This from the NWS office Grand Rapids.
THE RAIN AND FOG WILL EXIT EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL   
PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. IT'S POSSIBLE WE'LL EVEN SEE A   
FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON IF WE CAN LOSE THE LOW   
CLOUDS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HIGH TEMPS AT SOME OF THE CLIMATE   
SITES MAY END UP MAKING IT INTO THE LIST OF THE TOP 10 WARMEST   
CHRISTMAS DAYS. 
I need not say more.

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

First time my cows have ever gone for a dip on Christmas Eve. 

16403789615913351125423926807444.jpg

Dang amigo..how many cows do ya have there  😆

Nice pic!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice cattle!  
 

Hi of 81* today.
It’s 8pm and 71* on Christmas Eve. 🤨

Weird. Very weird.  No fireplace, the usual Christmas atmosphere. Feels more like early Tx football season.  
 

82* Christmas Day.  😅 

Merry Christmas Guys!!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 12/23/2021 at 3:45 PM, tStacsh said:

By no way I'm saying this could end as a big dog, but at least there is consensus on the models, as of now, of a storm somewhere in the midwest during New Year's weekend.  The way it's going, I'd like to be 100 miles north of my location this winter, but tis the trend these days.  Can't remember my last 4" plus surprise LES event.  Can't remember the last time a big Artic front blasted through the lakes.  I'm sure there were one or two littles ones last year, but man do I miss those big events. Flash Freeze, whiteouts, fluffy cold LES snow adding up in 18 degree weather.   So if I have to look for hope or a trend 9/10 days out, I'm hanging on them like the sucker I am.  

 

We all can dream!  Lock it in!

642116172_12zsnow.PNG.25560107fbb46799d15a239869ccac80.PNG

Here are (2) GFS maps from early Dec 2016 at 10 and 15 days respectively. 

The snow projected actually verified within a couple of inches!

I don't know what they "fixed" in these models trying to gain precision in the shorter range, but they flushed the LR performance right down the toilet imho. (the W is Work, the H is Home in case anyone's curious)

1002481188_20161205GFS18z240hrsnowfall.JPG.f1fbaabc23040ef5fe959dde643ee86b.JPG1412367202_20161202GFS384hrsnowfall(KRMY-KBEH).PNG.aa719f7c3b87b5a78ed65cc8ab854115.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Warm evening, only 56 out with light SSW winds.

Got to 63 and will be around 70 tomorrow! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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43 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Merry Christmas everyone!

Merry Christmas and enjoy the snow blitz that coming your way.  I remember when you first moved up there it was a dud of year, not this year, enjoy it my friend!

Meantime, down below the Cheddar Curtain, I was grilling salmon and polish sausage on the grill yesterday.  Currently, it's a balmy and spring like 55F.  It feels almost humid out there. The last time I remember it being this warm on Christmas was a couple DEC's ago when it was in the 60's and sunny on Christmas Day.  I had the patio door open while the oven was baking a turkey.  That was a warm one. 

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One of the best Christmas songs that seems to always bring me the chills...this vid came out in 2015 and one that I remember vividly...2 things from this video: 1) It captures how we should all come together  2) It shows the Human Spirit of Love and Compassion...Christ is born!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI2c9yptr4U

 

 

 

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Both 0z GEFS/EPS indicating something is brewing for New Year's Day...Lower Lakes Cutter???  

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Is Santa going to bring the gift of White Gold as we ring in the New Year???  First, we need the cold....second, we need the storms....then, we need it to all come together....

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2.gif

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Merry Christmas....
I sure was a mild overnight with readings in the low 50's to upper 40's before a not so cold front came through.  Now even during the overnight hours the temperature reached 52 at Grand Rapids and Lansing and 51 at Muskegon. Those readings are good for the 2nd warmest Christmas at Muskegon, the 4th warmest at Grand Rapids and the 7th warmest at Lansing. There was 0.09" of rain fall here at my house. At this time it is cloudy and 43 here.

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The sun is now out here with a temperature of 44. If someone would have told me that it would be 44 on Christmas day with a north wind here in Grand Rapids I don't think I would have really believed them. But that is what the conditions are now here sunny with a north wind and a temperature of 44.

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On my phone, but wanted to share that the 12z EPS has trended a lot better for snow chances into the MW/Lower Lakes heading into the New Year.  It’s also picking up on the 6th/7th storm with a ton of blocking up in Canada.  Fun times on the horizon!

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69 and some clearing happening. Might have had 70 for a high!

Also a few towering cumulus, red echoes are moving into northern KY from the WNW. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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18C7FADF-28A8-416C-B18E-E07FD0C63E98.thumb.jpeg.11b0a331100938edcd83649aced5b548.jpeg
 

Shorts and short sleeves for Christmas in Memphis. With dews in the low 60s, it kinda even  felt muggy. Returning to Lincoln in a few days to basically seasonable late Dec weather will be nice lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Hmm.... the 00z NAM has joined the Euro Tuesday, breaks out the precip shield sooner, while it's still cold enough for snow in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.

image.thumb.png.650d5e21b18dea8b18ef5250fc24b239.png

image.thumb.png.d91c4966a94a24d74362047766a96a51.png

image.thumb.png.e044fe075f3ae6afe50226d6404e96bc.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

On my phone, but wanted to share that the 12z EPS has trended a lot better for snow chances into the MW/Lower Lakes heading into the New Year.  It’s also picking up on the 6th/7th storm with a ton of blocking up in Canada.  Fun times on the horizon!

0z GFS going large with a share the wealth storm to open up the New Year.  Very reminiscent of late Oct storm you mentioned on this run.  Any chance it slows a little?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh156-192.thumb.gif.d977e4e5e217e59ee1cd89d151ae4824.gif

 

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