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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


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44 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

70's are a real possibility this Friday in KC and than again a few days next week....WOW

 

Looks like the storm later this week will deliver a nice snow storm north of KC. Enjoy it while it lasts as it looks to melt a few days later. 

So, is the storm for late this week the Oct. 10/11th storm? If so, day 1 of LRC cycle two started today or starts tomorrow. Right?

 

 

 

 

Yes, we have to watch for a wave rotating around the trough but it will most likely be weak and not produce until it is east of us.

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Here is a nice Wintry look to my forecast today.....

NOAA:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1212 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-062000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
1212 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Numerous snow showers around this afternoon with localized
poor visibility...

Numerous snow showers will impact southeast Michigan this
afternoon. Localized, brief heavier snow shower activity will
lead to poor visibility (half mile or less) and snow covered
roads in spots, as temperatures hover around 32 degrees. Those
traveling this afternoon should be prepared for variable driving
conditions and visibility, along with strong winds as a wind
advisory for gusts to 45 mph remains in effect.
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Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

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Tomorrow will be the coldest day since last Feb 21st.   Crazy.  2 winterish like days, then back to a well AN pattern for the rest of the week/weekend and maybe beyond until at least the solstice.    With all the local and national talk of a fast start to winter I promised my almost 3 year twin boys a white xmas.  Still time left, but not looking great a this point.  

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

@jaster220any squalls for ya area yet bud...

I am getting a few...ground is dusty 😄

Very strong winds along falling temps.....

Had a whiteout here at the office (Livonia) just after 4. Could barely see across the road. I posted on it in the storm thd. Nice to actually have an active storm thd..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

@St Paul Stormshould be excited. Haven't seen him in here in a long time.

Just speculating, but maybe he got tired of the continuous cold/snow bias and hype year after year 🤷‍♂️   I know some of the main contributors put a lot of time into their posts, but if you were to look back at the last 5 years of winter predictions, the cliff notes version/summary would look like a copy/paste job.

Serious question - has any of the people who try and make long term predictions on this sub ever called for above normal temps and below normal precipitation for the winter outlook (Dec - Feb)?

 

 

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anybody know what this is on DSM and OMA radar. Just cirrus for clouds so it's likely not precip. Maybe virga but I doubt it. Quite odd. Stuff is moving when you loop it so certainly not wind farms. Too many echoes to be birds imo.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DMX-N0Q-0-12

image.thumb.png.7cfefaeab35aee46fb53e419bb3f85dc.png

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I called NWS DMX- there guess is migrating birds taking advantage of the North winds at 7-8K Agl. That's a sh!t ton of birds. They are going to take the radar out of long pulse mode  and see if it goes away. ( it seems to have a little)

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Chicago's latest first measurable snow was during Dec 2012. That month also featured 2 blizzards in the Midwest/GL's. Unfortunately, Chicago and most of SWMI was sandwiched in between the sig snow streaks. SEMI did pretty good tho with the Boxing Day storm (5-8"). So if we can turn a corner at the right time, maybe this month follows course.

Map of snow coverage after the 2 storms:

 

Snow_depth_20121227_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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All major sites across NMI are AN on snowfall to date. And this doesn't even include today's sig LES.

image.png.64c88d07810675155b155edfabccbc5f.png

My co-worker was showing me photos his folks sent of their snowmobiles caked in snow from riding yesterday. They are retired living in Lewiston, one of those jack-zones with 12+ yesterday.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Some December data for KC so far:

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
about an hour ago

The first 5 days of December for Kansas City were the 8th warmest on the 134-year record....and then today happened. We'll fall on that list temporarily but warmer temperatures later this week/month will return.

0nJUMs1r_normal.jpg
 
So here we are on 12/6 and we have yet to receive measurable snowfall in KC. In the 133 year period of record, we have been snowfall free up to this date in 35% of those years. If we don't receive snow through next Tuesday (which is likely), that drops to 20%.
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22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Some December data for KC so far:

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
about an hour ago

The first 5 days of December for Kansas City were the 8th warmest on the 134-year record....and then today happened. We'll fall on that list temporarily but warmer temperatures later this week/month will return.

0nJUMs1r_normal.jpg
 
So here we are on 12/6 and we have yet to receive measurable snowfall in KC. In the 133 year period of record, we have been snowfall free up to this date in 35% of those years. If we don't receive snow through next Tuesday (which is likely), that drops to 20%.

Wake me up when real winter arrives! Im bored stiff in Southeast  Iowa. Have spent 3 months preparing  our company  for  over 100 snow accounts.  Not only has it been warm  but  are now at 21 days with no measurable  precip.  That appears  to be headed towards 30 days soon.

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I looked back. I guess I’m hoping for a 2012-2013 repeat. We started off very warm that December.  Pretty much as warm as this one.   Late December saved the month. We then had a lame January.  But February and March made up for it.  Ended the winter with well above average snowfall and fairly normal temps.  I guess there’s still hope …

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Chicago's latest first measurable snow was during Dec 2012. That month also featured 2 blizzards in the Midwest/GL's. Unfortunately, Chicago and most of SWMI was sandwiched in between the sig snow streaks. SEMI did pretty good tho with the Boxing Day storm (5-8"). So if we can turn a corner at the right time, maybe this month follows course.

Map of snow coverage after the 2 storms:

 

Snow_depth_20121227_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

No doubt we see plenty of snow after this pattern. ( though last year didn’t yield much either).    It’s still early and this is just the time we live in.  But I’m more of a give me snow early and often and during the holidays.   It’s disappointing to just be cold. 

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I took some time this morning and reviewed the LR data and I'm more optimistic for the 2nd half of this month to deliver the "winter goods."  I will say, however, not all on here will benefit from this pattern as I see it come together.  For those of us farther east and south we will have to be patient for the pattern to progress.  With that in mind, I do see those out west in the Plains who have been on the sidelines for quite a while to see it good Ol' Man Winter return in what will seem like ages after our Mid-Month Torch.  Let me show you what the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies are suggesting.

I will say, that I'm pleased to see the models starting to align wrt to the teleconnections, but especially, the MJO that is forecast to convincingly move into Phase 7....and possibly Phase 8 by Jan.  I'm going to suggest we name this coming period where Winter will comeback as the "Solstice Arctic Surge."  Over the next 1-2 weeks, Arctic Air that is build up bodily over AK/Western Canada and eventually bleed south across the border.  This progression appears to be a slow process as the signal for a stout SER is glaringly not going away anytime soon.  The SOI has risen quite a bit and the ridge pattern that has been dominant S/SE of the Aleutians is a LR signal that isn't going away.

2.gif

 

What about the all important MJO???  "Ho Ho Ho...Here we go!"  Can there be a Christmas Miracle....???  Last nights Euro weeklies not backing down and clearly showing + signs for the pattern to get colder/wintrier.  The model has a tendency to hold troughs out west to long, but esp when the teleconnections are advertising otherwise one has to consider the fact that there will be a bias of holding the cold air to far west.

image.png

 

Here is the temp pattern that is showing the cold to finally "press" and continues to show it press farther south each run.  The EPO/WPO and blocking may all begin to align...last nights run from the global model suite suggest a return of the -NAO/-WPO and neutral AO/EPO right around the 20th.  Interestingly, all of these signal line up with what has transpired in the STRAT.

1.gif

 

 

#ThinkSnow...I always find it amusing when the wx maps line up to specific dates on the calendar.  The aforementioned period, the "Solstice Surge", is lining up with the start of astronomical Winter...so are the LR models?  This would put many smiles on peoples faces as we approach the period where winter wx counts around the Holidays.  I hope to see many of us on here to benefit from this active and more wintry period.

2.png

3.png

4.png

 

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There is just over one inch of snow on the ground here. The road and driveway are snow covered. The overnight low here was 17 and at this time it is still 17 with cloudy skies. The forecast is sure warm for this weekend and if the CPC and the CFSvs are correct it will be very mild for a good part of the rest of the month. As for a white Christmas here at Grand Rapids only 4 of the last 10 Christmases have had a least one inch of snow on the ground. While things could still change the chances of a white Christmas this year are looking some what bleak.

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As I stated there is just over one inch of snow on the ground here at my house but to the north of Grand Rapids there was a lot more snow fall yesterday. Here are some reported totals for yesterday. Alpena 10.7". Houghton Lake 7.3" West Branch 4.8" Petoskey 4.3"  In the Up Sault Ste Marie 3.0" and Marquette 4.3" 

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If what is showing for next week pans out, I will be golfing.  Thinking of taking next week wed/thurs off. Nothing set in stone, but pretty good agreement of a big middle of the country ridge next week.    2 years in a row of golf right before Christmas?  yes please!

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Chilly day after that washout. Won't hit 40 for the high but I see upper 60's coming up Saturday!

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is just over one inch of snow on the ground here. The road and driveway are snow covered. The overnight low here was 17 and at this time it is still 17 with cloudy skies. The forecast is sure warm for this weekend and if the CPC and the CFSvs are correct it will be very mild for a good part of the rest of the month. As for a white Christmas here at Grand Rapids only 4 of the last 10 Christmases have had a least one inch of snow on the ground. While things could still change the chances of a white Christmas this year are looking some what bleak.

You will probably end up being correct about the chances of a white Christmas being slim but my gut is telling me that we actually might have a better chance of it happening now that this warm up is hitting when it is rather then later this month. We all know how rare it is to have a really warm or really cold pattern last/lock in for really long periods this time of year around these parts and it seems like every couple weeks we’re either up or down so hopefully this up pattern will break to a down temperature pattern just in time for the holidays. Again this is just my gut telling me this and being a weather observer for the past 40+years and I could definitely be wrong but we’ll see.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Brrrr....baby it's cold outside!  I went out on my patio deck and had to take in a deep breath with temps this cold.  Currently at 12F and easily the coldest temp since last Feb.  I miss that crispness from arctic air.

What is the annual average minimum for Ashland KY (or Lexington/Louisville?), my last one used to be 0 before coming here.

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It actually felt like winter yesterday through this morning. Yesterday's high of 37 and this morning we dropped to 25.

BUT...........more of the same is coming back. Could be in the 70's Friday.

All right, let's get all the warm weather out of the way. Because, when I get the first snow here in KC, I do not want it to melt the rest of winter. 

Lets shoot for the last 1/3rd of Dec. into Jan. to get this winter party going. NEVER GIVE UP. COME ON BABY!!!

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16 hours ago, BrianJK said:

Just speculating, but maybe he got tired of the continuous cold/snow bias and hype year after year 🤷‍♂️   I know some of the main contributors put a lot of time into their posts, but if you were to look back at the last 5 years of winter predictions, the cliff notes version/summary would look like a copy/paste job.

Serious question - has any of the people who try and make long term predictions on this sub ever called for above normal temps and below normal precipitation for the winter outlook (Dec - Feb)?

 

 

I believe some people said this same thing about jaster when he took his hiatus a while back. Let's not transfer your own personal gripes onto other people.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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4 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

It actually felt like winter yesterday through this morning. Yesterday's high of 37 and this morning we dropped to 25.

BUT...........more of the same is coming back. Could be in the 70's Friday.

All right, let's get all the warm weather out of the way. Because, when I get the first snow here in KC, I do not want it to melt the rest of winter. 

Lets shoot for the last 1/3rd of Dec. into Jan. to get this winter party going. NEVER GIVE UP. COME ON BABY!!!

I remember it getting cold on 11/26 too, the days seem to swing from one direction to the other around here.

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I believe some people said this same thing about jaster when he took his hiatus a while back. Let's not transfer your own personal gripes onto other people.

Not sure if it was a personal thing, but confirmation bias is a real psychological condition that afflicts many people, especially with access to anything on social media/internet that fits their opinions.  

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28 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Even after yesterday's coldest winter day so far this season (8 degrees below average for the day), we're still at 10.0 degrees above average for the first 6 days of the month. Back to at or above normal for probably at least the next 10 days. GFS keeps showing us near 70 next Wednesday, 12/15 too.

Yup.  KC is still 11.3 degrees above average right now.  No rain (or snow obviously) since November 14th either.  It's hard to imagine a worse start to winter for us KC folks.   I know we're not alone.   But still ....

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Looks like another 2-6" of snow tonight for 1 county NORTH of my area.  The winds have not been friendly for me this year so far concerning LES.  The wind will be too SW for me.  Need WSW or W wind to get the goods.   This event could surprise though if the wind direction shifts a little.  WWA issued at 7 pm tonight.  I'll be right on the line.  

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GFS is cooler for me aside from an extremely warm 12/15 where I shoot up to near 50. Every other day (aside from Thursday AM) stays below 32.

Of course, that Wed/Thurs temp is subjective to the SLP track. Right now it's a rainstorm for me with snow on the back end, but obviously it could shift South and give me a crippling blizzard and colder temps. Regardless, I'm supposed to fly back from Charlotte that night lol.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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It's official. Detroit had it's 15th snowiest November (141 yrs of wx records), but Ann Arbor gets the trophy for most snowfall in SEMI. U of M has a hot hand this autumn, that's for sure. Go Blue!

image.png.c78e652ca10eff50a2a255b4335f3a3d.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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26 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its a cold day today. Currently at 23F. A couple of flurries flying, but very sporadic.

Ditto over here...was out shopping earlier and with the Christmas carols on in all the stores it sorta put me in the holiday mood.  Would love to see more snow before the holidays!

Screen Shot 2021-12-07 at 1.54.40 PM.png

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4f60fWNqZjI

Not sure if this link attached correctly but anyone looking to get in the holiday Spirit take a look at this web cam, it’s up in a little town in north west lower MI called Harbor Springs. The town looks like they could film a Hallmark Christmas movie there. Their Expecting 6” of new snow into tomorrow and possibly a bunch more going into the weekend. The camera is mounted to the top of a church steeple in the middle of town. My wife and I, her parents and her sister/brother n law bought a place up there back in April for a family retreat. We also rent it through a local rental agency occasionally. After spending some time up there the pas 6 months my wife and I agree this is going to be our retirement area, it’s one of the prettiest areas in MI I feel. So anyone looking to see a beautiful snowy seen check this webcam out when you can.

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Geez, Thursday and Friday will see us at 80*.  
This weather will surely kill us.  Then back into the 50’s.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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GRR saying there might be a Meso-Low tomorrow morning. IF it materializes, a small-ish region will get hit with a nice surprise.

Quote
What really gets things going is toward morning the exit region of
a 140 knot jet core comes in phase with a strongly digging
northern stream shortwave. That will really "kick" up the lake
effect snow bands from near Holland to Muskegon since there will
be a surface low to add curvature to low level wind field. The 950
to 850 mb lift is very impressive in a narrow area over from near
Holland to Sparta at 7 am. Likely there will be some narrow bands
of snowfall with rates near or maybe greater than an inch an
hour. This conditions will not last long through. Once the jet
core moves inland, by noon, the activity will fall apart. This
looks like one of those MESO-Low type events. We will have to
monitor this but there could be some significant travel impacts
on US-31 and maybe I-96 near MKG if this really happens.

Only a small fraction of our CWA will see any impacts from this
event but where it does happen, travel will be challenging.

The new snow grids show up to 4 inches of snow possible near
Holland Wednesday morning.

 

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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