December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

SWMI getting some LES this pm

[tStacsh]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Decemboring

To be fair, might get some thunderstorms this weekend and later next week.  

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Iowawx said:

Wow, the GFS has a high of around 68 in Cedar Rapids on December 15. If that happens, that would shatter the record of 55 set back in 1957! It would be kind of nice to have it that warm on my birthday, but.....

Where's winter???

Europe and Alaska is where winter is hiding.  Going to take a lot(and time) for it to flip to this side of the hemisphere.  I would think near or slightly post-xmas is the new target, but the pattern just may repeat itself.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Break out the shorts in December!! Only FORTY degrees above average!

[jaster220]

44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Break out the shorts in December!! Only FORTY degrees above average!

About as opposite as possible to what we THOUGHT December was going to look like, lol. Cruel jokes on us by nature

[Minny_Weather]

It would be amazing if Duluth had a brown Christmas.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

It would be amazing if Duluth had a brown Christmas.

Sault Saint Marie did in '94. Brown sh*t happens..

[jaster220]

Nothing monumental, but GRR's turn to put up a snowfall list again. And more fell today further SW so should be another list coming soon:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
828 AM EST WED DEC 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NNW PALO              43.15N 85.01W
12/08/2021  M2.5 INCH        MONTCALM           MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-MT-9 FENWICK 3.3 E.

0630 AM     SNOW             3 NE SARANAC            42.96N 85.17W
12/08/2021  M1.9 INCH        IONIA              MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-IN-1 SARANAC 2.6 NE.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 N EDGEMONT PARK       42.78N 84.60W
12/08/2021  M1.7 INCH        CLINTON            MI   ASOS

            LANSING AIRPORT.

0735 AM     SNOW             1 NNE SAINT JOHNS       43.02N 84.55W
12/08/2021  M1.7 INCH        CLINTON            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION STJM4 SAINT JOHNS.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SSE GRATTAN           43.01N 85.35W
12/08/2021  M1.5 INCH        KENT               MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-KN-106 LOWELL 5.5 N.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 ENE LANSING           42.71N 84.53W
12/08/2021  M1.5 INCH        INGHAM             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-IH-45 LANSING 1.0 ENE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WNW ALMA              43.38N 84.67W
12/08/2021  M1.2 INCH        GRATIOT            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ALMM4 ALMA.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 W WAYLAND             42.67N 85.68W
12/08/2021  M1.2 INCH        ALLEGAN            MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-AN-1 WAYLAND 2.0 W.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 W HASTINGS            42.65N 85.30W
12/08/2021  M1.0 INCH        BARRY              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HASM4 HASTINGS.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSW DUTTON            42.83N 85.59W
12/08/2021  M0.8 INCH        KENT               MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-KN-43 CALEDONIA 4.4 WNW.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SSE WOODVILLE         43.61N 85.64W
12/08/2021  M0.7 INCH        NEWAYGO            MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-NW-8 WHITE CLOUD 7.5
            ENE.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SSW CASCADE           42.88N 85.52W
12/08/2021  M0.7 INCH        KENT               MI   ASOS

            GRAND RAPIDS AIRPORT / NWS.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 ENE KENTWOOD          42.89N 85.54W
12/08/2021  M0.7 INCH        KENT               MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GRRM4 KENTWOOD 4 ENE.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 NNE BRUNSWICK         43.45N 86.03W
12/08/2021  M0.5 INCH        NEWAYGO            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION FREM4 1.2 N
            BRUNSWICK.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSE SHEPHERD          43.47N 84.67W
12/08/2021  M0.5 INCH        ISABELLA           MI   COCORAHS

[jaster220]

Northern half of the CWA gets a bit of snow action b4 we warm into the rainer pattern:

DTX

Warm advection fully kicks in tomorrow with increasing southwest
flow ahead of the strong PV anomaly/height falls coming out of
western Canada/northern Rockies. Shortwave energy and moisture
coming out of the Four Corners region will also become absorbed, and
track off to the northeast toward the Great Lakes Region. Thus, it
is looking likely mid level warm front will become active over Lower
Michigan during Thursday, with exactly where the forcing sets up
being the question. Will favor precipitation/snow along and north of
M-46 with the advertised lift/moisture gradient in the 850-700 MB
layer, as 4+ g/kg of specific humidity works through late in the
day.  With that kind of moisture, and favorable thermal profiles (-4
C in the 850-700 MB layer north of I-69), planning on carrying 1-2
inch snowfall across Midland/Bay/Huron, with amounts and pops
quickly tapering as one heads south.

[Timmy Supercell]

T'storms just got added to wunderground for Ashland Fri/Sat (they refused to on 12/6). So maybe the chances are better than that one.

[jaster220]

Can't say I've ever seen an AFD go here. Must be all the Cable cooking shows influencing pop culture

APX

Quote

Behind the front Thursday night...as mid-level moisture rapidly
strips out and the boundary layer remains mostly saturated and
relatively stable...with potential for a bit of lift...will have to
watch for freezing drizzle concerns as we`ll almost certainly have a
lack of cloud ice (given temperatures aloft at the top of the
inversion around -2C or so...not typically a temperature supportive
of the presence of in-cloud ice, though I suppose it wouldn`t be
entirely impossible). In layman`s terms...when in-cloud ice is
present aloft, it falls into the supercooled liquid water droplets
below and cause them to freeze...sort of like how if even one sugar
crystal gets in your from-scratch caramel, it instantly goes from
smooth to crystallized. Therefore, a lack of potential in-cloud ice
suggests we may be stuck in the weather equivalent of smooth, silky
caramel Thursday night behind the system, and much like caramel
making, we`ll have to monitor the situation closely as it unfolds.
(If only the impacts with freezing drizzle were as tasty...)

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Break out the shorts in December!! Only FORTY degrees above average!

Expect 40 degrees below average in late spring.

[Tom]

Once we get past the massive ridge pattern mid month for the Central CONUS, you won't want to plan a vacation out W/SW as the STJ will likely be firing up as the LRC's signature SW Flow fires up.  California Dreamin'???  Head to the Sierra Mountains if your a ski or snowboard enthusiast.  I was talking to an old friend of mine while out in AZ and he has plans to go up to Lake Tahoe in January and I'm expecting to see banner ski conditions by then.  I may join the party.

 

Meantime, the 0z GEFS animation below is showing a classic SW Flow pattern for the CONUS.  Is there any hope for a Christmas Miracle??  Yup, there sure is as the models and signature storms back in Oct that are poised to cycle through right around the Solstice period and months end.  I'm impressed and rather intrigued to see every single global model flip the EPO (-) and also develop high lat blocking.  Perfect timing to see them all line up about a week before the Christmas period.

 

 

The ONLY issue I see or "dagger" to influence how far systems will cut in the Week 2 pattern is the "Resilient SER"...that -PNA signal is pretty impressive.  The Arctic Air that has eyes for the Sub will have a difficult time to "press" initially come the "Solstice Surge", however, there are other influencing teleconnections that support a better outcome for snow lovers in the MW/Plains/GL's region for the Christmas holidays.  Dreaming of a White Christmas?  Like many of you, I will be doing just that and I'm encouraged to see what the models are suggesting during post 20th/21st.

 

 

[Tom]

Today's JMA weeklies are showing the pattern change coming around in the model world.  While Week 2 is quite warm/wet and likely wintry up north, the changes in the N PAC are evident as the model is starting to sniff out the -EPO, albeit slower than the other models.

Week 2...

Temp/Precip... @Timmy_Supercell is prob going to be tracking many storms his way...

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp/Precip...that is a massive arctic air mass lurking in Canada...its gonna bleed south and our friend @FAR_Weatheris likely going to miss this arctic outbreak (I'm sure he's upset at this ).  @Mr Marine Layer, gone will be your lovely wx and sunny filled days (maybe your ready for change) as the STJ is firing up this month. 

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Finally a break from the +AO,NAO,EPO that has helped screw KC out of any Winter weather.  Maybe it will be in time to make Christmas memorable.

[james1976]

Winter Weather Advisory this morning. First one of the season. Roads are all ice with sleet and freezing rain. Of course they issue it after it already gets slick. Tons of accidents on I35 and highway 20.

[Timmy Supercell]

Another nice one. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Now it's Enhanced! Will there be a Moderate hatch when this gets closer?

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Now it's Enhanced! Will there be a Moderate hatch when this gets closer?

Your prob going to need a canoe as this pattern activates the STJ, esp around the 20th…

[Timmy Supercell]

In the PNW there was only one time we had an Enhanced ever (5/30/2020). 

Though that criteria is somewhat newer on SPC. There would have been a few of those in the 1990's.

[Andie]

Texans should be half sick after this weeks roller coaster temp rage.  
 

81 today, 84 possible tomorrow. Then a rollercoaster of 50’s & 60’s with a 70 tossed in for variety. I already have a slight sore throat as winds are kicking up fall pollen and particulate.  
 

So, yeah. It can’t decided the season and most of us are hoarse with watery eyes. . Ya gotta love our switch from fall to winter.  Kicks our a** every year!  Texas.  Love it or Leave it !!!

[MIKEKC]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Finally a break from the +AO,NAO,EPO that has helped screw KC out of any Winter weather.  Maybe it will be in time to make Christmas memorable.

Clinton,

We've seen these promises before from the model world....something tells me this time we are going to score!!

After I briefly open the pool for a few days next week(LOL, WOW on that potential warm-up) I hopefully will be shoveling Christmas week. LET'S GO!

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton,

We've seen these promises before from the model world....something tells me this time we are going to score!!

After I briefly open the pool for a few days next week(LOL, WOW on that potential warm-up) I hopefully will be shoveling Christmas week. LET'S GO!

You'll like this from Gary's blog today.  I think we have a good shot at hitting on 2 of the 3 he mentioned if it can get cold.

So, what about that change by Christmas week? As we learn more about this years LRC, the cycling pattern, we have narrowed in on the part of the pattern that will arrive Christmas week, and there are three potential storm systems that will affect our area between Christmas week and New Year's week. This is when our next chance of our first inch of snow will arrive.

[westMJim]

There is some filtered sun at this time with a temperature of 30° The overnight low here at my house was 27. At this time there is around a half inch of snow on the ground and there is ice on the pond not too far from my house. The snow will be all gone soon. With highs forecasted to reach the upper 40's on Tuesday and the upper 50's on Wednesday of next week here are the records for those days. For Tuesday the 14th the record high at Grand Rapids is 59 set in 2015 and 1975. A high in the upper 40's would be a top ten. For Wednesday the 15th the record is 60 set in 1971 a high of 55 or better would place it in the top 3 warmest for any December 15th. That filtered sun is now gone.

[gimmesnow]

GFS still has some pretty hot days but it seems like it's calming down with the massive heat wave and only giving us a few really hot days in SE WI.

[Minny_Weather]

Lookin at mid to upper 30s next week here before the front. Normal high is in the mid-20s now. Super afraid of this snowpack getting nuked, especially in areas where grass is exposed due to drifting.

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFS really sped up the passage of the front next Wednesday moving it through the state by 0Z Thursday. Also now showing mid to upper 70s into Nebraska just ahead of the front.

What's even more bonkers is the amount of dry air coming in behind the front. Dews go from the mid to upper 50s to the single digits as humidity drops below 10%(!) Sounding below is for Omaha at 0Z. 68 degrees but a dewpoint of 5.

 

[gabel23]

16 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lookin at mid to upper 30s next week here before the front. Normal high is in the mid-20s now. Super afraid of this snowpack getting nuked, especially in areas where grass is exposed due to drifting.

How deep is your snow pack? Not a whole lot of energy in the sun as we approach the winter solstice in a couple weeks. If anything your snow pack should be in pretty good shape. Maybe a little melting/refreezing will help turn it into a glacier!! 

[Minny_Weather]

13 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

How deep is your snow pack? Not a whole lot of energy in the sun as we approach the winter solstice in a couple weeks. If anything your snow pack should be in pretty good shape. Maybe a little melting/refreezing will help turn it into a glacier!! 

2-6" depending on where you're standing. 4 straight days above freezing will not be good.

[bud2380]

Real winter around the corner?  I read Joe Bastardi saying he thinks it will turn cold right around this time and into January.  Compared it to Dec 1995 in regards to the MJO.  I don't recall Dec 1995, but I do recall late January and into early Feb 1996 as there are still many all time record lows in Iowa from that time frame.  

 

[snowstorm83]

I thought 71 on Dec 2nd would easily be the warmest temp until March but it looks like Wednesday next week might be challenging that

[inferno]

A record setting december of warmth is on the table

[jaster220]

51 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

2-6" depending on where you're standing. 4 straight days above freezing will not be good.

Snow pack will be snow past

[GDR]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

12Z GFS really sped up the passage of the front next Wednesday moving it through the state by 0Z Thursday. Also now showing mid to upper 70s into Nebraska just ahead of the front.

What's even more bonkers is the amount of dry air coming in behind the front. Dews go from the mid to upper 50s to the single digits as humidity drops below 10%(!) Sounding below is for Omaha at 0Z. 66 degrees but a dewpoint of 5.

 

That’s awesome Enjoy the heat wave!

[Hawkeye]

The Euro lowered Cedar Rapids to 63 last night, but a faster front on this morning's run pulls 67 up here again.  I have to work on the snow blower and get the garage set up for winter, so it'll be the perfect day for that.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Currently 58 IMBY as temps have overperformed a bit today. Normal high here is now down to 40 degrees.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Real winter around the corner?  I read Joe Bastardi saying he thinks it will turn cold right around this time and into January.  Compared it to Dec 1995 in regards to the MJO.  I don't recall Dec 1995, but I do recall late January and into early Feb 1996 as there are still many all time record lows in Iowa from that time frame.  

 

Dec of '95 was a non-stop run of WSWarnings for LES in mby up in Traverse. That's what I remember. So far, this season's wild swings cold to warm, and back again reminds me very much of 89-90. December's not going to be bitter like that winter, but a similar theme is there in my book.

Just gotta luv Gaylord when they're hot..

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Currently 58 IMBY as temps have overperformed a bit today. Normal high here is now down to 40 degrees.

"the year without a winter"

[OmahaSnowFan]

57 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"the year without a winter"

so far....

If it's past 2/15, then I will say for sure.

It's kinda crazy though. We had the record breaking cold the first half of February this year like everyone else, and then when that went away, winter basically stopped. We had no measurable snow after that and Feb and March can be our biggest hitters for storms. It's been basically 10 full months since we've had any measurable snow here.

Temps haven't been cold either. Then now the start to this winter and our local NWS already has 70 in the grids for next Wednesday.

[Tom]

0z Euro....December Sizzle for the mid section of the nation...man, I don't know whats worse....seeing a beautiful snow pack evaporate within 4-5 days or getting thunderstorms in Dec???  

 

If the storm cuts as far as the models are showing it and the rapid intensification that transpires, these DP's are gonna be a snow pack killer...but don't worry, nature will find a way to fill it back up...the wild swings of a La Nina pattern...ughhh!