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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Is there a "Solstice Storm" brewing???  The long awaited "solstice surge" is increasing looking probable and the "kicker" that'll that set up this pattern change is the likelihood of a storm system coming out of the Rockies (another CO LOW???)...but with blocking developing over the top (Canadian HP's) #seedthecold...this should be an eventful period setting up shop across our Sub. 

As mentioned before, the devil of a SER is either gonna be a blessing or curse for those of us across the eastern Sub.  It'll be a nail biter IMHO, esp over here but at least #realwinter is looking promising of returning in DEC when it counts, none more-so, then during the holiday season.

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The + signs are that the teleconnections are all lining up in sync and we will finally see a return of the -NAO block alongside a -EPO.

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It's fascinating watching the models go right to the pattern that transpired in mid Oct as the N ATL block, locked in for days and days.  Look at what the 0z GEFS is suggesting as it shows a trough to break off south of Greenland which in turn "pumps" the ridge and...viola...we have the return of the Greenland Block.  This literally happened the same exact way back in OCT if my memory serves me right.

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This STRAT animation is golden...

temp10anim.gif

 

Finally, I'll end this post commenting on the BSR for early Jan....if both the EPS/GEFS are correct, the 1st week of JAN looks intriguing as I see a dominant SW Flow and what should be a parade of storm system, the increased possibility of a Blizzard (yup, I'm calling it)...the period to watch is Jan 7th-11th....

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There is still a trace of snow on the ground here at my house. The overnight low here was 28 and with cloudy skies it is now 34. Next week still looks to be very warm by December standards. The average maximum temperature for December at Grand Rapids is 54. In the last 30 years it has reached 60 or better 8 times in December. In that 30 year span it has not reached at least 50 only 5 times. The range in the last 30 years has been from 37 in 2000 to 69 in 2001. 

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If I remember, I joked about them upgrading this to Moderate. Totally my fault! 

day1otlk_1630.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Feeling really pessimistic about the future of my ski hills the next week. If they can't make it through this heat wave and rain, GFS says no meaningful snow making until December 22nd. Gonna really hurt them if they are forced to be closed over some of kid's winter break. Even if they make it, it's just going to be a giant sheet of ice. I was hoping the rain would miss Portage and save Cascade but not even that looks good.

I guess on the bright side the people who work at the hill could use a break from everything, considering what chaos last year was.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Is there a "Solstice Storm" brewing???  The long awaited "solstice surge" is increasing looking probable and the "kicker" that'll that set up this pattern change is the likelihood of a storm system coming out of the Rockies (another CO LOW???)...but with blocking developing over the top (Canadian HP's) #seedthecold...this should be an eventful period setting up shop across our Sub. 

As mentioned before, the devil of a SER is either gonna be a blessing or curse for those of us across the eastern Sub.  It'll be a nail biter IMHO, esp over here but at least #realwinter is looking promising of returning in DEC when it counts, none more-so, then during the holiday season.

2.gif

 

The + signs are that the teleconnections are all lining up in sync and we will finally see a return of the -NAO block alongside a -EPO.

3.png

 

4.png

 

 

It's fascinating watching the models go right to the pattern that transpired in mid Oct as the N ATL block, locked in for days and days.  Look at what the 0z GEFS is suggesting as it shows a trough to break off south of Greenland which in turn "pumps" the ridge and...viola...we have the return of the Greenland Block.  This literally happened the same exact way back in OCT if my memory serves me right.

3.gif

 

This STRAT animation is golden...

temp10anim.gif

 

Finally, I'll end this post commenting on the BSR for early Jan....if both the EPS/GEFS are correct, the 1st week of JAN looks intriguing as I see a dominant SW Flow and what should be a parade of storm system, the increased possibility of a Blizzard (yup, I'm calling it)...the period to watch is Jan 7th-11th....

1.gif

 

Solstice storm you say.  Look at this, right on cue with the LRC and is being modeled like the Oct version.  With the blocking showing up I'm getting confident it will get cold.  White Christmas for KC if we can keep it on the ground.  @jaster220 @Niko you guys have had a magnet early on for some winter weather, could be headed your way as well.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh216-270.thumb.gif.df2958166a277abcd0e4811ed4c2eff1.gif

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Solstice storm you say.  Look at this, right on cue with the LRC and is being modeled like the Oct version.  With the blocking showing up I'm getting confident it will get cold.  White Christmas for KC if we can keep it on the ground.  @jaster220 @Niko you guys have had a magnet early on for some winter weather, could be headed your way as well.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh216-270.thumb.gif.df2958166a277abcd0e4811ed4c2eff1.gif

That'd be great Clinton. For all of us S&E Peeps. Follow-on LES down Lk Mich looks classic too! Hopefully, our ground temps will have lowered a bit by then as well.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro shows boring nw flow taking over after the record warmth next week... not a flake of snow in sight for many of us.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm hearing a bit of light thunder from the thin lines moving through.  Unfortunately, these showers are lasting only a minute or two.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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unable to see instability maps, but if today's 12Z Euro is correct, eastern Nebraska would definitely have to watch out for severe weather. Of course doesn't take much to get a classic low instability/high shear set up this time of year. LLJ of 70+ knots with a temp around 70 and dews in the 50s. On December 15th....

Wednesday:

Despite some timing differences, the 00z global are in reasonably
good agreement in suggesting that a potent shortwave trough and
associated surface low will move through the region on Wed. That
system could bring an array of impacts to the area, including the
potential for high winds, severe-convective and winter weather. Stay
tuned.

 

850wh.us_c.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_c.png

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Major outbreak unfolding; I'll post when there's t'storms here. I'm a little caught up using just one form of social media.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Ironic the SPC's MCD# for this one..

image.png.a98b8fdc74ec7efca95f09f46e928008.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Line is approaching! So far Boyd County is not included in any watches but there is the outside chance this area does get a warning. 

KJKL_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I'm seeing overall + trends from the 0z EPS as the COLDER trends continue right around the "Solstice" period...the models are not shying away from the overwhelming agreement that High Lat Blocking shall be Locking.  The biggest component has been the raging PAC jet slamming into the west coast and the lack of blocking, but that is about to change in dramatic fashion.  Oh, did someone dial up that -NAO/-AO...you've been missed my many...I think its time our Sub shall reap some rewards, ay?  

Is it about time to focus in on the storm potential (s)...yes, I'm sorta getting excited about what lies ahead here for the start of the Christmas Holiday week as both the EPS/GEFS are showing increased ensemble support of somewhat of a "cutter" right before the Solstice, then followed by another storm just before Christmas or Christmas Eve.  The potential is there, no doubt about it...I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of tugging and pulling on here as to who will reap the rewards of that magical snowfall during the holidays.  'Tis the season...come on Mother Nature...could you deliver a widespread "share the wealth"???

 

 

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Sorry to hear about the tornadoes down in Kentucky. Here the temperature rose all night and reached 58 just before the cold front came thru. And boy there were some big time wind gust with that front. At this time it is still windy but no where near the gust that came with the front. The temperature is now down to 48.

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Does this area have a tendency to kill the energy in thunderstorms? The last time we had a line of storms move through it was for the most part heavy rain with a complete absence of lightning as soon as it got here. 

We have our times though. March 1st 2017 did some notable damage in downtown Ashland. The 2012 derecho also knocked out power for several days. Of course I'm only hearing about these storms years after the fact.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well what a system  crossing  the nation.  Our hearts are heavy for those in the Tornados  path.  But shockingly despite the low passed  apparently  within few miles of here. Stars were out several  hrs, I had barely .02 rain. Since nov 10th ive had .03 and zero snow of course. Incredible  dry spell and no real end in sight.  May push 50 days soon!

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