December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

SREF mean is 4". Not bad.

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

The last 1/4 of the GFS would bring epic winter conditions to the state of Michigan.  Lock it in.  What could go wrong? 

GFS has been doing that a lot this fall. In fact it seems to wildly fluctuate between each run.

[Niko]

NOAA:

Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold
on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with
the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated
surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for
roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be
north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be
surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on
the longest.

I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold
on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with
the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated
surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for
roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be
north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be
surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on
the longest.

I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat.

Skunked in Wayne. Be good if ORD actually got on the board tho

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold
on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with
the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated
surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for
roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be
north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be
surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on
the longest.

I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat.

Actually, NAM has come around. Now showing a decent event JUST north of me. (I get some pingers per GFS). The one thing this autumn/winter has featured here is that every moisture event has been on the higher end of the forecast range, if not above. Would be way cool if this somehow got just cold enough to thump me with some wet white stuff. Only need like 1/2 a county bump south. Not a moon shot

[jaster220]

LOL 12z CMC knows who's got the magnet this season = KDTW

[jaster220]

NAM out to h39 has snow further S like the GEM showed this morning. This could really make my Saturday more festive as the last week for Santa to get it in gear, lol

[jaster220]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

+ trends continue to show up for the Holiday week next week...could it end up being a Festive Miracle???  Let's see what the models are showing.  Last nights 0z GFS/Euro are now picking up on a storm system to eject out into the Plains and ridge along the thermal boundary setting up across the central Sub.  The ensembles are also showing increasing members of this scenario.

0z GFS...

 

0z Euro...not quite there but showing the possibility....with Arctic Air in toe...this bodes well for a lot of members on here to see some snow by the time Christmas rolls around.

 

I believe Dec 20th is the date whereby if ORD does not receive any measurable snow, it will set an all-time record.  This record may be held at bay if there is snow that falls on Sat.  Models are suggesting it may snow here but that is looking 50/50 ATM.

That west to east slider gradient deal has been $$ for us in the Lwr Lakes over the last decade. The aggressive "bomb storms" have been more-or-less absent, but GHD-2, Dec 2000 bliz, Nov 2015 storms have been the biggies in recent times. I'm still holding out hope due to all these bombastic surface cyclones recently, that we have a chance at snagging something exciting like Bliz of '99 that popped-up after the heat of Dec '98

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NAM out to h39 has snow further S like the GEM showed this morning. This could really make my Saturday more festive as the last week for Santa to get it in gear, lol

NAM!!  

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Skunked in Wayne. Be good if ORD actually got on the board tho

As for now, Wayne looks borderline.....I'd say from my area points north, looks good for a couple of inches. This should be good timing because it stays cold Sunday. Next week looks colder than what yesterdays outlook was showing, mainly mid 30s for highs now, if not colder, so snowcover has staying power.

[Niko]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NAM!!  

Sweet! 2-3 inches....I'll sign up for that! Gotta pen.....

[Niko]

24 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

LOL 12z CMC knows who's got the magnet this season = KDTW

Sometimes these last second events end up being the best snowevents.

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, Niko said:

Sometimes these last second events end up being the best snow events.

Ikr. I am trying to make them all "last minute" by not looking at the LR models. (t)S(t)asch sees a run 252 hrs out that's exciting, only to get down because the very next run it's GONE. I don't need that. That's more depressing than the evening news. I had a TON of FUN when those 2 clippers kinda snuck-up on SEMI. 90hr 12 km NAM is my "go-to" button on the model sites. If it's showing something decent at that range, there's a decent chance it's legit. That's been working out pretty good, tho it was a little tardy to pick up on the Saturday event here. Just coming around with today's runs. Our events have trended better right up to "go time" so this could even do the same.

[Minny_Weather]

Oh my god I hate weather so much.

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS has us near 60 Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, lolz.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Skunked in Wayne. Be good if ORD actually got on the board tho

0z GEFS gives ORD hope...

[westMJim]

December 17, 2021

The official overnight low at GRR so far is 28. Here at my house it is a colder 24 and with clear skies that is the current temperature here at my house. We are now just past the half way point for December 2021 and it has so far been a very mild month with well below average snow fall and a lot of wind. At Grand Rapids the current mean for this December is 36.5 that is a departure of +4.2. At Muskegon they have a mean of 38.9 and that is a departure of +5.3 and at Lansing the mean is 38.5 good for a departure of +7.1.  In the snow fall department Grand Rapids has had 3.4” in December that is -6.3 where we should be by this date. For the season the 13.1” is -4.0 where we should be. At Muskegon the numbers on the snow fall are for December just 0.9” has fallen that is -9.6” and for the season 17.0” have fallen and that is -10.5” and to the east at Lansing they have had just 2.2” for December so far that is -3.2” and for the season they have now had 7.9” and that is -1.6”. While there could be some snow over the weekend there really don’t look to be all that much.

[Minny_Weather]

I was hoping for a last-second North shift on the clipper, but short-range models (which have been decent this year) didn't budge on the 12Z run. We'll see how 18Z goes but right now I'm looking at another 2 incher today.

[Clinton]

47 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Can someone explain why the cold air just can't get south this year?  I know the jet stream is the immediate cause.  I mean on a more fundamental level than that.  Every time the cold air starts to move south, it seems like it hits a wall and slides back up to the northeast.  The MJO is moving into phase 7.  The AO is tanking.   And yet the models still maintain that all but the northern most parts of the eastern part of the US are going to be AN for most of the next 3 weeks.  What is an amateur like me missing?

 

There is usually a lag of around a week with the MJO and AO.  The AO is currently neutral and is now only predicted to drop to -2.  The other problem is the PNA is deep negative which is not good for us to get artic air.  Lets see if the models start trending colder after Christmas when the MJO influence can be a bigger driver.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

I was hoping for a last-second North shift on the clipper, but short-range models (which have been decent this year) didn't budge on the 12Z run. We'll see how 18Z goes but right now I'm looking at another 2 incher today.

You know she's not going to be happy with "another 2 incher"

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

There is usually a lag of around a week with the MJO and AO.  The AO is currently neutral and is now only predicted to drop to -2.  The other problem is the PNA is deep negative which is not good for us to get artic air.  Lets see if the models start trending colder after Christmas when the MJO influence can be a bigger driver.

On point...I mentioned the "devil" or "dagger" to this pattern will be the stout -PNA signal.  Unfortunately, this really needs to subside or the MJO head into a more amped Phase 7/8.

[tStacsh]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Ikr. I am trying to make them all "last minute" by not looking at the LR models. (t)S(t)asch sees a run 252 hrs out that's exciting, only to get down because the very next run it's GONE. I don't need that. That's more depressing than the evening news. I had a TON of FUN when those 2 clippers kinda snuck-up on SEMI. 90hr 12 km NAM is my "go-to" button on the model sites. If it's showing something decent at that range, there's a decent chance it's legit. That's been working out pretty good, tho it was a little tardy to pick up on the Saturday event here. Just coming around with today's runs. Our events have trended better right up to "go time" so this could even do the same.

I hear ya, but the runs for the last month would have me at a few feet of snow by now.  The problem is the trend is always colder and snowier at the end of the runs, but it never comes to fruition.  So anyone basing a pattern change or anything winterlike in the models just keeps being completely wrong.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Been mid-40's since early this morning. Lightly rained a few times. 

[Timmy Supercell]

New info still coming out on that major tornado that started in Arkansas. It did offically cycle in northwest Tennessee. 

Still though, it lasted a long 160+ miles in Kentucky and will go down as an impressive December tornado event.
Both tracks on the tornado appear to have done EF4 damage. Plus another separate tornado that struck Bowling Green with EF3 damage. 

[Grizzcoat]

The only white Christmas seen for many reading will be on the Island of Misfits in Rudolph. 

A gun that shoots jelly.

A boat that doesn't float.

A cowboy that rides a rooster.

A Charlie in the box?

A December to remember?

[tStacsh]

Yeah, the latest Euro says there will be no winter anytime soon in the Midwest.  The trend continues.  Time to start looking towards January at this point.  What a disappointing start to the season.  I'm think many snow(less) records may be in play in some areas.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Its horrible.  My company  has invested 31k$ in preparation  for taking  care of 55 commercial  accounts  and 50 residential.    Not even a slush snow to do some salting etc.  In fact no measurable rain for 37 days now! Its getting  quite depressing. 

51 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Yeah, the latest Euro says there will be no winter anytime soon in the Midwest.  The trend continues.  Time to start looking towards January at this point.  What a disappointing start to the season.  I'm think many snow(less) records may be in play in some areas.

51 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

  

 

 

[GDR]

Some records could be Shattered this winter/maybe winter

 

[tStacsh]

20 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Its horrible.  My company  has invested 31k$ in preparation  for taking  care of 55 commercial  accounts  and 50 residential.    Not even a slush snow to do some salting etc.  In fact no measurable rain for 37 days now! Its getting  quite depressing. 

 

We always got the good old reliable upgraded GFS to spit out feet of snow in the long range!  Pattern been changing on that model the last 30 days lol.  

[tStacsh]

I hope people are giving credit to the computers and the few who went against a fast start to winter. 

[Minny_Weather]

Radar is ever farther south than short range models were this morning. I'll be lucky to even get an inch this far north.

[jaster220]

40 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Radar is ever farther south than short range models were this morning. I'll be lucky to even get an inch this far north.

SR models ramping up as has been our trend this (kinda) winter:

DTX:

Quote

Accumulations of about an inch to an inch and a half of sleet/snow
are currently expected along and south of 8 Mile. Close to Lake
Erie, slightly higher temps off the lake will cut into
freezing/frozen precip so may just see mainly a cold rain there.
North of 8 Mile, generally 1 to 2 inches of wet snow is expected by
the afternoon with the low mid-December sun angle making
accumulations likely on all surfaces. This is some room for slight
overachievement between I-94 and I-69 if the strongest
fgen/deformation coincides with pockets of favorable lower
stability

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I hear ya, but the runs for the last month would have me at a few feet of snow by now.  The problem is the trend is always colder and snowier at the end of the runs, but it never comes to fruition.  So anyone basing a pattern change or anything winter-like in the models just keeps being completely wrong.  

The h90 NAM has not shown feet of snow for yby. That's what I said, I don't waste my time on LR (heck even MR it's gotten so bad this year). 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

The only white Christmas seen for many reading will be on the Island of Misfits in Rudolph. 

A gun that shoots jelly.

A boat that doesn't float.

A cowboy that rides a rooster.

A Charlie in the box?

A December to remember?

Tragic (yet cool) post. Sierra's in CALI look like they're literally "torching" like a live flame-thrower. But that's qpf. What is this, a NINO winter?

[jaster220]

Not a big deal, but a mood coating is welcomed all things considered.

[james1976]

Ill be in Florida 23rd-28th so I expect a snowstorm imby while I'm gone lol jk....yeah ain't lookin good. Hopefully the new year will start off on a different note.

[Timmy Supercell]

10 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Ill be in Florida 23rd-28th so I expect a snowstorm imby while I'm gone lol jk....yeah ain't lookin good. Hopefully the new year will start off on a different note.

Share a few t'storms up this way? I'd like to switch out this gif I've been using since May 2016 at my last place. Cameras are hungry! 

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

The h90 NAM has not shown feet of snow for yby. That's what I said, I don't waste my time on LR (heck even MR it's gotten so bad this year). 

I hear ya, but my point is a lot of internet weather people take the long range seriously and provide it as evidence that winter is coming or pattern change etc.   I’ve never trusted anything over 5 days out. I don’t know how anyone can.  It’s a terrible job to predict long range weather.  Not easy and computers just can’t handle the data that far out.  It’s why long range tanks every run.  The data disappears the farther out the date and causes fools gold every time.  

[gimmesnow]

22 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I hear ya, but my point is a lot of internet weather people take the long range seriously and provide it as evidence that winter is coming or pattern change etc.   I’ve never trusted anything over 5 days out. I don’t know how anyone can.  It’s a terrible job to predict long range weather.  Not easy and computers just can’t handle the data that far out.  It’s why long range tanks every run.  The data disappears the farther out the date and causes fools gold every time.  

They are just doing it for internet fame. I've seen the Tik Tok videos

Quote

Hey guys super secret information but winter is coming in two weeks be prepared look at this graphic (shows GFS 12 days out) looks like a real huge storm is coming like and subscribe!

 

[jaster220]

22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Actually, NAM has come around. Now showing a decent event JUST north of me. (I get some pingers per GFS). The one thing this autumn/winter has featured here is that every moisture event has been on the higher end of the forecast range, if not above. Would be way cool if this somehow got just cold enough to thump me with some wet white stuff. Only need like 1/2 a county bump south. Not a moon shot

Per DTX's pm AFD..."Morning precip type is likely to be all snow north of 8 Mile"

I am due west of downtown Detroit so about "1 Mile" if there was such. Need to close a 7 mile gap, lol.

0z runs should be interesting..