December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Also if anyone wants snow, come on up and say hi!

When I lived in the northland, it was the largest city up there. Your town looks more like the classic small tourist entity. Just curious what you do for employment?

[Iowawx]

Anytime a storm pops up on the models, it's almost always been gone on the next run. It's hard to see us getting any snow here before New Years. Possibly beyond that as well. 

It looks to be very mild here on Christmas Eve, with highs well into the 50's and maybe some rain. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Just unbelievable numbers. Unfortunately, almost all of them weren't easily seen either so very few pics and videos from the event.

[bud2380]

Nothing exciting on the extended range on the Euro.  Just more of the same.  

[jaster220]

Alpine Valley ski slopes near where I went yesterday. Skied there once back in the 80's. It would be the nearest option to my current residence.

But when will it look like THIS??

[Madtown]

Looks like a good hit up here tomorrow! 4-6" maybe!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lolz. Normals right now are 19/36 dropping to 17/35 by the end of the forecast period.

Currently running 8.6 degrees above normal for the month and these numbers are +11.0 for the next week.

 

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming northwest 15 to 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 19. North northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 17 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 47. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31. South wind around 8 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 28.

Christmas Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

[Hawkeye]

Models have backed off on the Christmas Eve warmth around here due to an earlier frontal passage.  We may have to settle for upper 40s to low 50s.

[Madtown]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have backed off on the Christmas Eve warmth around here due to an earlier frontal passage.  We may have to settle for upper 40s to low 50s.

Reading the Afd's looks like everything is shifting further south for Christmas Eve and Day

[Up_north_MI]

Not sure why this surprises me but is the average chance for a white Christmas really under 35% on average for Detroit? That’s what the NWS is saying unless I misinterpreted it. For some reason I thought it was closer to 50%. I see Flint is over 50% on average which sounds about right I guess.

[Niko]

Christmas Day now looks colder w highs mainly in the upper 30s, instead of near 50F.  Morning snowshowers should make it look more festive.

[Niko]

Freshly outta the oven....."Tis the season" y'all and may we get tons of snowstorms this back-loaded Winter 2022.........

In the meantime........1st pic is homemade Greek Cheese-pie and the 2nd one is Homemade Greek Christmas cookies.

 

 

[BrianJK]

5 hours ago, Madtown said:

Looks like a good hit up here tomorrow! 4-6" maybe!

Hoping this and the cold nights help get the trails in shape.  After a promising start of over 20” to kick off the season, the warm up and damaging winds really messed things up.  Feels like forever since we went wire to wire with good trail conditions.  

[jaster220]

At least winter's back in force for a couple more areas. Nice to see

Winter Storm Warning

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
336 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021

MIZ095-210445-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.211221T1700Z-211222T0100Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
336 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County.

* WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reductions in
  visibility. High snowfall rates in excess of 1" per hour will be
  possible during the evening commute, leading to quick snow
  accumulations on roadways. Hazardous travel conditions are
  expected, especially along US-2.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

[jaster220]

Man, this what we all wanted to see, and some of us did 4 yrs ago:

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Freshly outta the oven....."Tis the season" y'all and may we get tons of snowstorms this back-loaded Winter 2022.........

In the meantime........1st pic is homemade Greek Cheese-pie and the 2nd one is Homemade Greek Christmas cookies.

 

 

Amigo! When can I stop by, lol

Don't look now, but ICON's showing some flakes here Thursday. This morning, every day in the grid was clear and mild.

 

[jaster220]

Can see why APX is at least a little excited about the Christmas system. Almost certainly a rainer downstate, but NMI appears poised to "get lucky" like they did with the storm on the 5-6th.

[jaster220]

0z NAM's joining the Thursday eve/night snow party. Giddy-up, even if it's just holiday mood flakes.

[Minny_Weather]

Well, NC isn't happening. I got a better job offer in St. Paul, so I'm moving there instead. I get to stay in this subforum, yay!

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Amigo! When can I stop by, lol

Don't look now, but ICON's showing some flakes here Thursday. This morning, every day in the grid was clear and mild.

 

Sounds good!

I see that beautiful blue color right on top of us bud come Thursday and it sure looks fantastic, but unfortunately, that killer warm front arrives on Friday and will demolished any white gold we get, just in time for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Ma Nature is trying to give us that "White Christmas", but no cigar ma friend.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM's joining the Thursday eve/night snow party. Giddy-up, even if it's just holiday mood flakes.

Just wish this CF had more moisture to work w.

[BrianJK]

I admittedly had my doubts about December being epic and historic, but today looks to be another milestone to declare just that.   After record breaking warmth, and then record breaking wind/damage reports, we now look to FINALLY break the record for latest measurable snow.  So, with all that, hard to argue that this wasn’t a December to remember.  

[MNTonka]

2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well, NC isn't happening. I got a better job offer in St. Paul, so I'm moving there instead. I get to stay in this subforum, yay!

I’m more of a lurker in this forum, but I congratulate you on your new job and I welcome you to St. Paul! I’m very familiar with STP and the surrounding burbs so feel free to message me with any questions you have about the area, I’d be happy to help out! 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, BrianJK said:

I admittedly had my doubts about December being epic and historic, but today looks to be another milestone to declare just that.   After record breaking warmth, and then record breaking wind/damage reports, we now look to FINALLY break the record for latest measurable snow.  So, with all that, hard to argue that this wasn’t a December to remember.  

Brian, I don't recall anyone on here saying this DEC would be epicly cold and historic as you say.  Or are you commenting that some people outside of this Sub were saying this?  I will admit, however, I did feel (among many others outside the Sub) this DEC would have a better chance than previous years to be on the colder and more wintry side of things.  That obviously isn't happening but to say otherwise isn't really being accurate.  There have been winners and your place up north along with the rest of the Northwoods crew have had a good start.  Let's not forget those living in the "Mitt", but again, the rest of us in the Plains/MW obviously failed to have anything of significance....thus far...

On a side note, what are your thoughts for JAN/FEB?

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, the models could not have done any worse with the clipper. They had the heaviest returns between I-94 and ND-200, and the heaviest returns are currently along the SD state line lol. 10°F.

[Tom]

We welcome the Winter Solstice at 9:59am local time today!  I read somewhere before that the wx forecasts back in the day usually followed the astronomical calendar.  Well, if that's the case, then those up north...AGAIN...are getting a nice coating of Snow overnight into the rest of today.  I'd love to see it snowing around these parts esp with such cold temp in place.  It reminds me of the days back in FEB last year as it kept snowing with frigid temps.

Meantime, some of the models are picking up on a Festive Miracle for Christmas???  Both the Euro/GFS are showing a short wave but the placement of this wave is not in agreement.  0z Euro is a bit N compared to the GFS...

 

 

[Tom]

The lackluster start to the Winter season out west flipped hard esp for those in the Sierra Mtn's...this reporter is just outside of Tahoe, CA in Soda Springs.  I'd love to experience what they have endured and what is forecast to continue.

 

 

[GDR]

All right, all right, all right the MJO will be in the warm phase in January Maybe we can set some more records next month also.

[Minny_Weather]

Snow with Christmas lights is something I only experienced twice in Texas growing up. Living in the Midwest now, I always savor it. 13°F.

[Up_north_MI]

Took this picture this morning when walking out to grab the mail, the freezing fog looked pretty cool I thought. If you look hard enough you might be able to spot our 125 lb Alaskan Malamute sitting up by the house, she loves this cooler weather.

[BrianJK]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

 

On a side note, what are your thoughts for JAN/FEB?

 

Based solely on trends, I think Jan will see seasonal cool/cold shots and most ending with close to average snowfall.  That's for the majority of us, as it only takes 1 larger system for someone to get lucky.  But if/when/where that MIGHT transpire is completely up in the air.  Could just be the northern members getting in on something like that, who knows.  

 

And then for Feb, think most will see the usual 1-2 weeks of real winter weather, with a significant warm up thrown in somewhere.

[westMJim]

Well here we are at the winter solstice and while the is the so called official first day of winter.  meteorological winter started on December 1st. The ground and roof tops are white this morning but with frost and not snow. The overnight low here with clear skies dropped down to 17 and at this time it is now up to 20. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 20. December now has a departure of +4.0 at Grand Rapids. +5.1 at Muskegon and whopping +6.6 at Lansing. All west Michigan's major locations are below average in snow fall. To the east Detroit is +5.4 Flint it +5.5 and Saginaw is +4.3. to the north Alpena is +3.0 Houghton Lake is +4.1 the Sault is +3.1 The December snow fall is above average at Alpena and the Sault and just below average at Houghton Lake

[Madtown]

Coming down at a pretty good clip this am. Started at 745.

[tStacsh]

Medium to long range looks more of the same.  Couple shots of cooler air, to be followed by warmer pushes and a northern dominant stream.  SE ridge just too persistent.  

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

 

Based solely on trends, I think Jan will see seasonal cool/cold shots and most ending with close to average snowfall.  That's for the majority of us, as it only takes 1 larger system for someone to get lucky.  But if/when/where that MIGHT transpire is completely up in the air.  Could just be the northern members getting in on something like that, who knows.  

 

And then for Feb, think most will see the usual 1-2 weeks of real winter weather, with a significant warm up thrown in somewhere.

Im in agreement with your JAN thoughts  but I think FEB could end up being a lot warmer overall for the MW.  That SER looks resilient this year.  The only countering effect would either be a major SSW event or a deep -NAO/-EPO. Obviously, predicting teleconnections at this range are a crap shoot and I’m sure everyone’s eyes will be glued to them as will the MJO phases.  Other than that, wild swings in temps are pretty certain.  If I were you, I’d stay up north as long as possible!

[FV-Mike]

Maybe a glimmer of hope for GL/Chicago region. From Tom Skilling's FB update today. 

• We've now been 279 days since the last measurable snow here which was the 1.8" which fell back on March 15, 2021.

• Most consecutive days with no measurable snow
• 3/4/2012 through 12/19/2012 290 days

• 3/1/1994 through 12/5/1994 280 days
• 3/16/2021 through 12/19/2021 279 days AND COUNTING

• ANY STICKING SNOW ON THE HORIZON???: The morning run of the National Weather Service's GFS model indicates at least a potential for measurable snow with a weather system toward Wednesday next week. That's a LONG WAY OFF at this point--much can change and there are many ducks to get into order for that to happen. So that's something to put in the "curious--but hardly a certainty" category.
• ALSO OF INTEREST--There is a moderately colder "look" to the emerging pattern for Chicago next week and heading into the new year (the following weekend and the week after). Hand in hand with the developing pattern is a big upper trough coming together over the Western U.S. and Chicago's position on the "stormy" north side of the strong west/southwest out of that trough in model forecasts. It's the kind of pattern in which it wouldn't be difficult to imagine storm systems lifting out of the Rockies and riding into the Midwest. It's the sort of things which piques our interest and which we will be monitoring.

 

[james1976]

12 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well, NC isn't happening. I got a better job offer in St. Paul, so I'm moving there instead. I get to stay in this subforum, yay!

Awesome! Which suburb will you be in? Or right in St Paul?

[Tom]

On a brighter note, I heard gasoline prices near Grand Rapids have dropped .50/gal which is one of the highest drops in the nation since Nov.  Saving

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

The lackluster start to the Winter season out west flipped hard esp for those in the Sierra Mtn's...this reporter is just outside of Tahoe, CA in Soda Springs.  I'd love to experience what they have endured and what is forecast to continue.

 

 

This same area is forecast to receive up to 90” of snow through Sat!  Just incredible…for those who have been praying for Snow, I’d say they have been answered…share some of that over here…

[westMJim]

23 minutes ago, Tom said:

On a brighter note, I heard gasoline prices near Grand Rapids have dropped .50/gal which is one of the highest drops in the nation since Nov.  Saving

I was not out and about yesterday but on Sunday at the gas station not far from me the price was at 2.84.