December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

1 minute ago, westMJim said:

I was not out and about yesterday but on Sunday at the gas station not far from me the price was at 2.84.

I am paying $3.19/gal and that is still a bit high if you ask me...we shouldn't be paying this much but it is what it is...

[bud2380]

I started a thread for the Christmas Day storm that is taking shape on the models.

 

 

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

What is causing the SE Ridge to be so persistent this year? Is there a feature elsewhere that sort of balances it out, and makes it so persistent?   Is a SE Ridge a common feature (to a lesser degree than this year) in the winter months in the US?   What would cause that ridge to break down, and what would be a common reaction to that ridge breaking down?

It seems to me that all the teleconnections in the world (-AO and such) won't help those of us a little further south and east in this forum if the cold air keeps hitting a brick wall.  

The N PAC ocean has a direct influence for our wx pattern.  The dominant ridge pattern that has set up South/SE of the Aleutian Islands is the culprit.  There are multiple teleconnections that can alleviate the SER strength (-EPO/-WPO) and of course how strong the high lat blocking can be.  IMO, our region needs to see a deeper -EPO in order to save our Winter season.

[Beltrami Island]

53 minutes ago, Tom said:

This same area is forecast to receive up to 90” of snow through Sat!  Just incredible…for those who have been praying for Snow, I’d say they have been answered…share some of that over here…

The Sierras are well known for getting 10 foot dumps in a weeks time.  They can also sit under a ridge for weeks at a time between those snow dumps.  The back to back to back..... snow dumps happening out there right now is unique though.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

On a brighter note, I heard gasoline prices near Grand Rapids have dropped .50/gal which is one of the highest drops in the nation since Nov.  Saving

Thanks Biden!!

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I was not out and about yesterday but on Sunday at the gas station not far from me the price was at 2.84.

We're at $2.75 here in Omaha.

[Tom]

27 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

But doesn't the -EPO basically just allow cold air to pull across the pole and down into the US? Even with that, a wall of warm air caused by a SE ridge is going to block it, which seems to be what's happening.  Looking at the latest models, it looks like there's a fairly persistent high pressure in the northern Pacific causing the jet to buckle up into Alaska and then down into the northern US.  And so the very northern part of our sub is getting fairly seasonable temps.  That looks like a -EPO.   But the cold air keeps getting hung up around the 40th parallel, give or take (until hour 348 perpetually).  

Very true, we certainly cannot just have a -EPO bc that’s not enough.  We can manage having a -1 or max -2 deviation PNA but no way can we handle a -4/-5 which is where the -PNA is heading.  It’s supposed to relax according to the models by NYE so that’s the window of opportunity.

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Thanks Biden!!

Let’s Go Brandon!  J/K…I was more happier paying a little over $2 back in Dec ‘19.

[MIKEKC]

Yikes! Where is winter?? Latest GFS for KC still has many warm-ups in there and very little in the way of moisture. We are heading towards 40 days without more than .02 inches of moisture in parts of KC. WE ARE DRY! 

There lies my problem with the LRC. We are firmly into cycle two, the repeat of cycle one where KC saw multiple functioning storms and 5-8 inches of rain in the first 30 days of cycle one. Where is that repeat? I'm not suggesting we should have seen 5-8 inches of moisture this go around, but, where are the storms at? Why aren't we somewhat wet? This time a year, a good 1 inch storm holds you over for weeks..I'm not bashing on the LRC, I'm just failing to see the pattern repeat. I was totally expecting a wetter Dec. here based off the first 30 days of cycle one. Maybe I'm missing something...I do realize that the OCT. 10th/11th storm repeated and the storm following that(the major windstorm and severe storms her in KC on the 15th) repeated, KC was just in the wrong spot. The LRC did indeed cycle, but, is it still cycling now? We had two big storms following the OCT. 14th-15th cold front and thunderstorms.. After that, here in KC we had a huge wet storm in our region on OCT. 22nd to 24th, a 3 day storm. Severe storms broke out in Missouri on the 24th.... 60 day cycle would suggest a huge storm in the nations midsection around Christmas. Where is that storm?  Following that, we had another big wet storm on OCT. 27th-29th, the current GFS does have that storm for late this month. Lets hope that one pans out. 

I see the cold air there in western Canada, when it builds there it almost always plows south. Just can't do it!! It refuses to get in the pattern. Do we have a problem the rest of winter?? 

I'm not giving up on winter, however, I'm drinking more these days. LOL We haven't even been close to a chance of snow. 

Clinton, just post a  snow map, I don't care that its fake. 

Have a great Christmas Week everyone!!! 

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

Awesome! Which suburb will you be in? Or right in St Paul?

Debating. Looking at a place in Downtown, but I'll probably end up in Woodbury.

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

We're at $2.75 here in Omaha.

Apparently Lincoln hasn’t caught up I just paid 3.09 this morning lmao 

[Bellona]

Gusts up to 50mph for James and myself again this afternoon according to the special weather statement from Des Moines. 

[Madtown]

4" down today see whatvthevlakendoes if anything 

[Thunder98]

Very little ice in the Great Lakes.

 

[james1976]

50 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Gusts up to 50mph for James and myself again this afternoon according to the special weather statement from Des Moines. 

Yup! I saw that on my phone earlier. We definitely get our share of wind around here.

[james1976]

Gas was 3.19 over here a few weeks ago. Its now 2.99. So its dropped a bit. We've paid these prices, if not higher, several years back so this isn't something new.

[Bellona]

Most I ever paid was back around 2014, I paid 3.99 here.

[Bellona]

I don't know if any of you are space "weather" nuts, but there are currently 8 sunspots on the solar disc. First time in four years. 

[gimmesnow]

2 minutes ago, Bellona said:

I don't know if any of you are space "weather" nuts, but there are currently 8 sunspots on the solar disc. First time in four years. 

Well it does seem like there's a lag in solar activity that correlates to a good winter. If the sun's activity is picking back up probably means winters are going to get a lot worse from now on.

[westMJim]

42 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Very little ice in the Great Lakes

It is now getting into late December and there is no ice in either Saginaw Bay or Green Bay and for Saginaw Bay that is a very shallow bay and generally has ice on it by now. And looking at the chart it looks like there are surface water temperatures well in the 40's yet.

[Madtown]

12z Euro through the ned of the year at 10:1. Would be a lot of happy business owners up here if that verifies.

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Apparently Lincoln hasn’t caught up I just paid 3.09 this morning lmao 

That's what's weird around Omaha. There are 2 stations right by my house on 680 that are that low and are always way lower than the rest of town. I still see plenty of stations that are over $3 though. I swear it used to be that basically every station in Omaha was about the same, but for whatever reason these 2 (a Casey's and a Murphy's) are always lower. Heck even the Casey's a mile down the interstate at the next exit is $3.09.

[BrianJK]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

4" down today see whatvthevlakendoes if anything 

I know it’s your first winter since buying the new house so not sure how familiar you are with the area, but I can verify the lake produces a pretty decent amount of “un-forecasted” snow throughout the season.  Im guessing I’ve gotten upwards of 15”-20” (over the course of the entire season)  that was never in the forecast and sometimes doesn’t even show up on radar, and you’re in a better location for LE than me.   Quite the phenomenon - enjoy! 
 

 

[Thunder98]

Dickinson, ND is to go temps in the 40's on Thursday to highs in the single digits and below zero for the foreseeable future!

 

[Niko]

Accumulating snow possible tomorrow afternoon and into Thursday nite from M-59 Hall Rd and points north gets into some snowfall. A 1-3" snowfall is a possibility. Plenty of cold air around as that snow develops from that WF moving northward. Wednesday's highs not getting outta the 20s w lows in the teens. So, whatever falls, sticks everywhere on Thursday. Hopefully, that snowcover can make it through Friday and portions of Saturday b4 those showers move in. Nevertheless, it continues to look Wintry here in SMI, even w a raging SER.  Christmas miracle!!! Come on MA Nature........ever so close!

[Niko]

No snow! Chicago breaks record for latest-ever 1st snowfall

The Windy City certainly hasn't been a snowy city this year. Chicago broke one snow record on Monday and another could be in jeopardy by New Year's Eve if the city doesn't measure any snow by then.

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

What a crazy Winter we are all having!

 

[Andie]

Wow.   

We’ll see High 70’s - 80’s through Christmas.   Lows around 60*.  
Tee Shirts appropriate attire.  
 

Merry Christmas Guys!!!!!!!!

Let’s Hope 2022 Doesn’t Suck!!!

[jaster220]

58 minutes ago, Niko said:

Accumulating snow possible tomorrow afternoon and into Thursday nite from M-59 Hall Rd and points north gets into some snowfall. A 1-3" snowfall is a possibility. Plenty of cold air around as that snow develops from that WF moving northward. Wednesday's highs not getting outta the 20s w lows in the teens. So, whatever falls, sticks everywhere on Thursday. Hopefully, that snowcover can make it through Friday and portions of Saturday b4 those showers move in. Nevertheless, it continues to look Wintry here in SMI, even w a raging SER.  Christmas miracle!!! Come on MA Nature........ever so close!

Yup, NAM has gone north tonight. Going to be a miss here again. (sigh)

Hopefully you can get some again tho.

[Clinton]

@MIKEKCasked me to post a snowfall map, this was the best I could find.

[jaster220]

LOL @ GFS for Saturday night. I'd be getting snowed-in at my Sis's place if this came true.

 

[Stacsh]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

LOL @ GFS for Saturday night. I'd be getting snowed-in at my Sis's place if this came true.

 

GfS classic.  Precip, thermals etc.  None of that makes sense 

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GfS classic.  Precip, thermals etc.  None of that makes sense 

Not to mention I've seen NOTHING with a SLP that far south. This is just getting stupider by the week.

[jaster220]

The Snowstake's gettin hammered tonight

[Madtown]

On 12/20/2021 at 11:41 AM, jaster220 said:

When I lived in the northland, it was the largest city up there. Your town looks more like the classic small tourist entity. Just curious what you do for employment?

I'm stay at home Dad for a few years. Wife was able to keep her current job. The plan is in 3 or 4 years we will have a business of our own up here. If not we'll work some non stressful jobs...construction/ food service type stuff. Get completely outta the rat race.

[Clinton]

The GFS has had a couple runs in a row with storms that are strengthening as they move out into the plains.  Good trend going on tonight imo.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

No snow! Chicago breaks record for latest-ever 1st snowfall

The Windy City certainly hasn't been a snowy city this year. Chicago broke one snow record on Monday and another could be in jeopardy by New Year's Eve if the city doesn't measure any snow by then.

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

What a crazy Winter we are all having!

 

GFS tryin to blow that record at h132

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

The GFS has had a couple runs in a row with storms that are strengthening as they move out into the plains.  Good trend going on tonight imo.

But a bunch of rainers for the S half Peeps. Is that really good?

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

But a bunch of rainers for the S half Peeps. Is that really good?

Right now we will take moisture anyway we can get it.  But things look to be changing fast in a good way and these rainers may be snowers lol by New Years Eve/Day.

[GDR]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Let’s Go Brandon!  J/K…I was more happier paying a little over $2 back in Dec ‘19.

It was a between 2.56 and 2.63 in Chicago during that time.

[Madtown]

Local Weather guys are pretty giddy tonight. Calling for accumulating snow Sat through Monday.