December 2021 Observations and Discussion

[OmahaSnowFan]

9 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

OAX is now forecasting 74 for Thursday. Should easily kill the daily record of 68 and it's not much more to beat the monthly record of 75. At least 12z GFS is less of a torch fest in the mid-long range for western members. More like near average overall. 

Forecasting 72 here Thursday and 67 tomorrow as well. Kids were disappointed to have to wear long sleeves to school today... On the last day of November.

I'm not sure what the all time record high for December is here, but would guess it's a bit lower than Lincoln.

[james1976]

Growing season is gonna start again if this torch fest doesn't end soon.

[gabel23]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is doing none of us any favors.

Right on. Check out what happned last year. The AO shot negative around the 1st of December. Once that happened we seen our snow. Check out how deep negative that thing got come Feb!!! I had highs below zero then. It will turn cold and snowy, only question is when will the teleconnections start playing ball!!! 

[snowstorm83]

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Forecasting 72 here Thursday and 67 tomorrow as well. Kids were disappointed to have to wear long sleeves to school today... On the last day of November.

I'm not sure what the all time record high for December is here, but would guess it's a bit lower than Lincoln.

That would be correct, Omaha's record is 72. Same day Lincoln set it's record (12/6/1939)

[GDR]

Early spring? Or no winter? Has nothing to do with global warming!

[Clinton]

12z GEFS picking up on the storm between the 8-10th.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather.  I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now!

You'd be more than welcomed buddy! Too bad it's not so convenient, eh? I totally get the frustrations too. I think, as we get deeper into an actual winter month, some better chances are bound to start popping up. Hang tough out there.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather  @Madtown are all in the game as well...

 

Not sure I want to jinx this marginal temp set-up with a thread, lol. But, would you be kind enough to share those panel images from either the Euro, or was it the GEFS?? Idk, but one of those was hinting at an OHV system a while back when I commented about it being kinda far away.

[OmahaSnowFan]

All time records in jeopardy on Thursday 

[Clinton]

12z Euro at hr144

[Clinton]

The torch is about to run out of fuel (for awhile)

[Tom]

On phone but the 12z Euro showing a solid hit for many for the 7th/8th

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

On phone but the 12z Euro showing a solid hit for many..

It's a start.

[GDR]

[Clinton]

Just now, GDR said:

13 would work!

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, GDR said:

Dial up #4 for the Sub…

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

13 would work!

Not greedy so that would work with me as well…#sharethewealth

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Not greedy so that would work with me as well…#sharethewealth

A little blocking just in time?

[Clinton]

What a change in temps in one run from the GEFS.  Every model today has flipped week 2 temps.

6z run

12z run

[Hawkeye]

In addition to the solid snow event, this morning's Euro follows it with brief, bitter cold.  It has a high temp of 11º here the day after the snow.  It's probably just teasing.

[GDR]

And poof it’s gone

[someweatherdude]

23 minutes ago, GDR said:

And poof it’s gone

As is the cold.  Two record (or near-record) highs being forecasted for KC in the mid-term (after this week's expected record high on Thursday).   The GFS is now back to giving KC a single day of below normal temps over the next 16 days.  Hopefully the GFS is as wrong as it usually is.   But since October it's been pretty spot on with the AN temps.  I mean come on.  It's almost off the scale: 

[Stacsh]

Nothing but warm rainers on the gfs.  Hope it changes.  But if the clipper pattern goes away I guess that’s what we get this time of year.  Cold is staying away for now that’s for sure.  I should just move to Alaska.  
 

I played golf when it hit near 60 and muggy last December 21st so this isn’t shocking anymore.  It’s becoming the norm.  

[Niko]

NOAA:

With abulk of shortwave energy shearing north of the region around the
aforementioned ridging, precipitation chances look to be limited to
periodic rain/snow shower chances, but with no appreciable storm
system. That may change by very late in the weekend into early next week as
a more substantial Pacific shortwave is forecast to move onshore
over the Pacific NW/British Columbia and then buckle the upper level
flow as it digs through the northern plains/upper midwest into the
Great Lakes. While medium range models have all already picked up on
this system, the spatial/temporal details of the shortwave are still
very much in question by the time it reaches this part of the
country late in this forecast period. In its wake, it appears a
cooler weather regime will set up at least temporarily early next
week as the colder airmass over Canada is tapped to some degree.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

As is the cold.  Two record (or near-record) highs being forecasted for KC in the mid-term (after this week's expected record high on Thursday).   The GFS is now back to giving KC a single day of below normal temps over the next 16 days.  Hopefully the GFS is as wrong as it usually is.   But since October it's been pretty spot on with the AN temps.  I mean come on.  It's almost off the scale: 

While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did.

[someweatherdude]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did.

I certainly hope it pans out.  Despite my pessimism, I still hope for a nice cold and snowy winter.  

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I certainly hope it pans out.  Despite my pessimism, I still hope for a nice cold and snowy winter.  

I know and I hope we can merry up the storm next week with enough cold air.  I guess time will tell.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did.

How can I argue? <200 hr map in play

[jaster220]

Still a lot of uncertainty. But apparently not enough to forego signalling the potential:

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

With abulk of shortwave energy shearing north of the region around the
aforementioned ridging, precipitation chances look to be limited to
periodic rain/snow shower chances, but with no appreciable storm
system. That may change by very late in the weekend into early next week as
a more substantial Pacific shortwave is forecast to move onshore
over the Pacific NW/British Columbia and then buckle the upper level
flow as it digs through the northern plains/upper midwest into the
Great Lakes. While medium range models have all already picked up on
this system, the spatial/temporal details of the shortwave are still
very much in question by the time it reaches this part of the
country late in this forecast period. In its wake, it appears a
cooler weather regime will set up at least temporarily early next
week as the colder airmass over Canada is tapped to some degree.

GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

FGF is forecasting 57*F here for tomorrow, which would tie the record set in 1962.

[Niko]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows.

Bud, my forecast starting from Sunday and into next week looks crazy. Its all over the place.  A lot has to get sort out and its definitely a yoyo. I guess they are seeing some very active weather, but still need to put all the pieces together. Kinda like an unsolved puzzle that needs to put all details in one piece.  The good thing about this is that we have "Active" weather here in the Lower Lakes. I'd tell ya one thing though, someone is going to get alotta snow next week. Question is..'Who."

[Niko]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still a lot of uncertainty. But apparently not enough to forego signalling the potential:

You just have to luv how we continue to get pound w/snow after snow after snow. Small break tomorrow and Thursday and then, it turns colder and back to active weather.

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows.

I want a 18-22 degree temp, west wind clipper, cold front, pure arctic air 6-10 inches of cold fluffy snow and a blizzard warning.   Is that too much to ask?   

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS operational back to system next week for many reading-- Those 18Z runs with no upper air are a big reason why Euro and CMC only go out short/medium range. Still many changes in the next 5-6 days as is to be expected but keep those 18Z/06Z runs off the table until inside 72 hours.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian is now showing this system as well.

[Hawkeye]

Tonight's Euro still has the system, but farther northeast because the cold air behind the Sunday front doesn't dig as far south.

[Clinton]

0z GEFS

[Tom]

As @Hawkeyementioned, the 0z Euro took a leap N this run and so did the 0z EPS...

 

[Tom]

Not what you want to see wrt to the MJO per the Euro as it goes back to Phase 6 Week 2...

 

On the flip side, the JMA keeps it in Phase 7...battle it out...

[GDR]

Phase 6 and it will be shorts and Barbecue December

[tStacsh]

long range GFS not backing down on mid-month warmth across the Mid-West.  Hope that changes.  Usually it's frigid with snowstorms at the end of its runs, so there is a chance this is completely wrong as it usually is.  

[westMJim]

Welcome to meteorological winter. Here is how Grand Rapids Michigan ended up in November 2021.

At Grand Rapids November came in with a mean of 38.5 that is -1.5° below the new 30 year average. There was a total of 9.7” of snow fall that is above the new 60 year average of 7.1. A total of 2.22” of rain and melted snow fall. That is below the average of 3.10. The high for the month was 65 on the 7^th and the low was 18 on the 23.  November was the 1^st month of below average temperatures since July and the coldest compared to average since May.

 

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Not what you want to see wrt to the MJO per the Euro as it goes back to Phase 6 Week 2...

 

On the flip side, the JMA keeps it in Phase 7...battle it out...

This was the point I was making before wrt model accuracy in forecasting the MJO not being much better than any other facet of the wx. Prolly the recent warming event pushing the true cold plunge til later. We saw this a couple years ago too iirc.

[james1976]

Forecast high of 62 today. Average is 39. Welcome to met winter!

[tStacsh]

GFS on board for mid-week snowstorm next week.  Similar to the Euro.  Michigan does very well.  

[GDR]

12z is on to something right???

[GDR]

Southern Iowa does ok

[bud2380]

Not overly strong on this run, but still something.

 

Here is 24 hour snow and total through 7 days.  

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Gets its act together more east of IA. But its a start.