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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


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GFS is weak in the cold sector.  Also, one negative for this system, at least for more western areas like Iowa, is the Sunday front sweeps the moisture way down into the gulf.  By the time the moisture can lift back up into the midwest the snow system is east of Iowa.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@Clinton

Swaths of SN north and south, lol. Like an artist just swiping their paint brush back and forth on the easel.

I would say that if you split the difference, The Mitt seems to be kinda at the 50-yard line, lol.

Oh, and there's always gotta be one..

image.png.d6d1205a5eedd46f86bf417ff3f8e68b.png

  • Snow 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Meanwhile, Denver is sill waiting for their first measurable snowfall...just like me!! lol

"Denver will begin the month of December without any snowfall for the first time in history -- and there's still no snow in sight for the near future. The previous record for the latest first snowfall in the city was set on Nov. 21, 1934...The Mile High City has now gone 223 consecutive days without snow as of Tuesday, and is just 12 days away from passing the all-time record of 235 snowless days, a record that was set in 1887, 134 years ago."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/denver-waiting-1st-snow-season-breaking-record/story?id=81467011

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Clinton

Swaths of SN north and south, lol. Like an artist just swiping their paint brush back and forth on the easel.

I would say that if you split the difference, The Mitt seems to be kinda at the 50-yard line, lol.

Oh, and there's always gotta be one..

image.png.d6d1205a5eedd46f86bf417ff3f8e68b.png

It looks good for you, your area is a hot spot right now for snow!

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1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

Meanwhile, Denver is sill waiting for their first measurable snowfall...just like me!! lol

"Denver will begin the month of December without any snowfall for the first time in history -- and there's still no snow in sight for the near future. The previous record for the latest first snowfall in the city was set on Nov. 21, 1934...The Mile High City has now gone 223 consecutive days without snow as of Tuesday, and is just 12 days away from passing the all-time record of 235 snowless days, a record that was set in 1887, 134 years ago."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/denver-waiting-1st-snow-season-breaking-record/story?id=81467011

Misery loves company.  So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us.  Go figure lol!

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Misery loves company.  So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us.  Go figure lol!

GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents

DTX sums things up, lol

Quote
A more significant storm system (potentially) for the second half of
the weekend as the jet stream finally begins to buckle, leading to
amplification. 00z Euro ensembles are all over the place, from warm
side rain, to southern track and snow storm, with plenty of
solutions indicating nothing. Potential interaction with the
subtropical jet, or lack of, will be key to the forecast.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Misery loves company.  So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us.  Go figure lol!

The GFS knows we're watching it, so it is deliberately messing with us. At least I hope that's it...🤣

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents

DTX sums things up, lol

 

For the Sunday night wave it's going to be hard for you to get much snow. Phase 6 and a spike in the AO at the wrong time. As for the next storm I would need it to slow down and dig a little more. There is still some time.

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The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems.  Areas farther sw will continue to have trouble getting much out of the fast wnw flow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents

DTX sums things up, lol

 

I just hope the wake of these waves sets up a decent LES event.  

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26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems.  Areas farther sw will continue to have trouble getting much out of the fast wnw flow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Im good w 3-6inches...where do i sign for that!!😉

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Looks like we're going to underperform by a couple of degrees today with a high of 65 vs predicted 67. I see they've lowered the high for tomorrow by 2 degrees here as well, down to 70 from 72. All time record December high is 72, and we've only hit 70 in December 3x since records began so kinda big deal tomorrow.

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Overnight, DVN upped our high today to 60º, but we've had more clouds than expected and the temp has only managed to reach 53º.  The recent trend has been to outperform the models by several degrees, but not today.

The Euro has lowered Thursday to 53º as well, so 60º probably won't happen.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like here in Topeka we're going to smash a 65 year record high tomorrow (from afternoon TOP AFD):

Topeka:
Forecast High Temperature: 76 degrees
Record High Temperature: 70 degrees set in 1956 and 1889

 

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Since king Gary is posting his winter forecast tomorrow i guess I’ll take a stab at my own forecast for the KC area!

 

since this years cycle is extremely long (60 days) my expectations of a great winter has diminished quite a bit from a month ago. I think first 30 days of the cycle will provide 2-3 solid storm systems that swing out of the southwest with a negative tilt that will target the area bringing widespread precipitation. Temps will be near to slightly below average and above average in precip. 
 

The remaining 30 days will be pretty dry and above to very above average temperature wise. I think the 2nd half of the cycle will bring us a break from the snow and rain and will allow us to enjoy nice days out to enjoy even in winter. There will likely be extreme up and downs with temps but with the flow being very progressive cold days will only last a couple days. Temp forecast is above average and precipitation below average.

 

forecast snow totals for the area will be 11-23 inches. The large scale is due to the potential lack of cold air for storms systems with the spiking AO and NAO.

 

we shall see how my forecast goes!

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32 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Since king Gary is posting his winter forecast tomorrow i guess I’ll take a stab at my own forecast for the KC area!

 

since this years cycle is extremely long (60 days) my expectations of a great winter has diminished quite a bit from a month ago. I think first 30 days of the cycle will provide 2-3 solid storm systems that swing out of the southwest with a negative tilt that will target the area bringing widespread precipitation. Temps will be near to slightly below average and above average in precip. 
 

The remaining 30 days will be pretty dry and above to very above average temperature wise. I think the 2nd half of the cycle will bring us a break from the snow and rain and will allow us to enjoy nice days out to enjoy even in winter. There will likely be extreme up and downs with temps but with the flow being very progressive cold days will only last a couple days. Temp forecast is above average and precipitation below average.

 

forecast snow totals for the area will be 11-23 inches. The large scale is due to the potential lack of cold air for storms systems with the spiking AO and NAO.

 

we shall see how my forecast goes!

I think his Winter forecast tomorrow is going to drive @MIKEKC nuts.  From listening to him on the radio and reading his blogs I think he will forecast near average temps and above average snowfall.  I like your write up, I think the MJO will be the puppet master this year and we've had some strong blocking at times.  I believe our biggest snowfall this year will be on or shortly after Christmas and I will say 19" total for the Winter.

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8 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@Jayhawker85overall I agree with your thinking. I have been leaning 80% towards 8-16 inches for MBY for another below normal year. I think most will fall in Dec and Feb. Still some chance for more or even less but that would be my best guess at the moment.

I can definitely see your totals as well. I think we will have a back ended with our snows coming in February 

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think his Winter forecast tomorrow is going to drive @MIKEKC nuts.  From listening to him on the radio and reading his blogs I think he will forecast near average temps and above average snowfall.  I like your write up, I think the MJO will be the puppet master this year and we've had some strong blocking at times.  I believe our biggest snowfall this year will be on or shortly after Christmas and I will say 19" total for the Winter.

We are definitely going to need a lot of blocking this year with the way these temps have been lately 

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3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I can definitely see your totals as well. I think we will have a back ended with our snows coming in February 

I think your totals fit well with mine because I think the better chances will be further east of MBY like seems to be the case a lot of years. I can see me being on the western cutoff in some cases keeping my totals down a bit. Funny you, me and @Clinton all thinking mostly under 20 inches for the most part. Sounds like we know how this works...lol

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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NOAA: Lots of uncertainty w both systems. Stay tuned. Its only Wednesday.

A more significant Pacific shortwave will then work into the area by
late in the weekend after digging from southwest Canada into the
northern plains/upper midwest on its way into the Great Lakes. This
feature promises to bring a more substantial chance of precipitation
late Sunday/Sunday night. Model trends have edged a bit north with
the eventual passage of the associated surface cyclone (which looks
to track over/just north of the forecast area at this time). This
would suggest a rain/snow mix or perhaps mainly all rain for the
area as temperatures climb back into the 40s on Sunday for a good
portion of the area. However, forecast confidence remains a bit low
as to how this system will evolve.

Even with the lack of confidence, it does appear that conditions
will cool down in its wake with highs back into the lower to mid 30s
by early next week. Another trailing shortwave within this active
northern stream flow will be working into the vicinity by this time
and models suggest a decent chance of the southern stream becoming
involved as shortwave energy ejects from the southern plains. This
may very well lead to the possibility of a more substantial storm
system by the end of this forecast period somewhere around Tuesday
next week.
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Judah Cohen blog on the AO -- and winter itself. Seems he has lost confidence in cold winter (below normal)  for many reading this. For those with the time- here it is-

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

For those without the time he basically sums it up with a Charlie Brown cartoon on the current scenario of the models predicting a Western trough that always remains 11-15 days out reminds of me of Lucy and her frustrating Charlie Brown with the football where the models tease and frustrate with their long-range forecast and deny satisfaction. Imagine that. And to get any sustained cold to the mid latitudes to going to require paying the piper with torches. Not just the one we have now, but more to come for mid DEC and even on. Those cold/snowy DEC progs are seemingly going up in smoke just like they have for the past several winters.  But with his Wednesday update he says the following- (signs of the Western trough increasing but no genuine winter weather for most reading. )  OH well. Another DEC wasted. Maybe next year.

Wednesday Update

First happy first day of meteorological winter!  Not much change since Monday.  The long-predicted trough/low pressure in the Western US with ridging becoming better established in the Eastern US has finally broken through the ten-day lead time barrier  and confidence in this pattern is much higher today than on Monday.  The  polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) from today is not much different today than what I tweeted yesterday and that from Monday .  To me this is the most bearish signal for any sustained cold weather in the Eastern US, Northern Europe and East Asia.  Europe has recently seen some impressive winter weather but even there I don’t think the cold and snow is sustainable in this pattern.  Actually, of those three regions East Asia probably has the best chance of seeing genuine winter weather mid to late December and as I discussed previously, I think East Asia is the vanguard for meaningful winter weather for the remainder of the NH.

imagerwix.png

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA: Lots of uncertainty w both systems. Stay tuned. Its only Wednesday.

A more significant Pacific shortwave will then work into the area by
late in the weekend after digging from southwest Canada into the
northern plains/upper midwest on its way into the Great Lakes. This
feature promises to bring a more substantial chance of precipitation
late Sunday/Sunday night. Model trends have edged a bit north with
the eventual passage of the associated surface cyclone (which looks
to track over/just north of the forecast area at this time). This
would suggest a rain/snow mix or perhaps mainly all rain for the
area as temperatures climb back into the 40s on Sunday for a good
portion of the area. However, forecast confidence remains a bit low
as to how this system will evolve.

Even with the lack of confidence, it does appear that conditions
will cool down in its wake with highs back into the lower to mid 30s
by early next week. Another trailing shortwave within this active
northern stream flow will be working into the vicinity by this time
and models suggest a decent chance of the southern stream becoming
involved as shortwave energy ejects from the southern plains. This
may very well lead to the possibility of a more substantial storm
system by the end of this forecast period somewhere around Tuesday
next week.

Sunday is starting to get more interesting for you on some models.  Snow magnet!

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39 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Judah Cohen blog on the AO -- and winter itself. Seems he has lost confidence in cold winter (below normal)  for many reading this. For those with the time- here it is-

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

For those without the time he basically sums it up with a Charlie Brown cartoon on the current scenario of the models predicting a Western trough that always remains 11-15 days out reminds of me of Lucy and her frustrating Charlie Brown with the football where the models tease and frustrate with their long-range forecast and deny satisfaction. Imagine that. And to get any sustained cold to the mid latitudes to going to require paying the piper with torches. Not just the one we have now, but more to come for mid DEC and even on. Those cold/snowy DEC progs are seemingly going up in smoke just like they have for the past several winters.  But with his Wednesday update he says the following- (signs of the Western trough increasing but no genuine winter weather for most reading. )  OH well. Another DEC wasted. Maybe next year.

Wednesday Update

First happy first day of meteorological winter!  Not much change since Monday.  The long-predicted trough/low pressure in the Western US with ridging becoming better established in the Eastern US has finally broken through the ten-day lead time barrier  and confidence in this pattern is much higher today than on Monday.  The  polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) from today is not much different today than what I tweeted yesterday and that from Monday .  To me this is the most bearish signal for any sustained cold weather in the Eastern US, Northern Europe and East Asia.  Europe has recently seen some impressive winter weather but even there I don’t think the cold and snow is sustainable in this pattern.  Actually, of those three regions East Asia probably has the best chance of seeing genuine winter weather mid to late December and as I discussed previously, I think East Asia is the vanguard for meaningful winter weather for the remainder of the NH.

imagerwix.png

 

 

I remember it wasn't looking like it would snow last year, and then you guys had that decent 4-6" event. And I thought you had more after that and it was a good winter out there. At least that's what I'm remembering. Iowa was like ground zero for the better action.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I remember it wasn't looking like it would snow last year, and then you guys had that decent 4-6" event. And I thought you had more after that and it was a good winter out there. At least that's what I'm remembering. Iowa was like ground zero for the better action.

Last couple of years have been slow starts. But it seems like we get through the holiday season and it really cranks up.  Record cold snaps as well during the active periods. 

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I remember it wasn't looking like it would snow last year, and then you guys had that decent 4-6" event. And I thought you had more after that and it was a good winter out there. At least that's what I'm remembering. Iowa was like ground zero for the better action.

Following is for DSM-

Dec 20' was two snowfalls that ended up to totaling 17.1.   Roughly 6.5 on the 11-12th and 10" on the 29th. The rest was nickel and dimer tenths events.

Jan started out slow with no measurable snowfall until mid month on the 14th-15th with 6" and 13" on the 25-26th Total was 20.2"-- just really only two snows, much like DEC- with nickel and dimers.

Feb was a different animal all together with mainly clippers squeezing out moisture in the brutal cold. Ended up with 11.9".

I'd gladly take a repeat, but winters like that don't happen frequently around here.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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ICONic:

 

20211202 0z ICON h93 Surf Map.PNG

  • Snow 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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