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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Jim Flowers already calling off winter. This is from his Facebook:

This is an important reminder, my best fit winter was 2008-2009. If I recall there was only one snow greater than 5” and that was in December. Most of the winters had totals of 20-22”. We are not looking at much this winter no matter  how you cut it.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That rain/snow line keeps getting pushed further south the last few runs.

Watch, Euro that Tom posted yesterday morning will be correct..LOL

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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27 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Following is for DSM-

Dec 20' was two snowfalls that ended up to totaling 17.1.   Roughly 6.5 on the 11-12th and 10" on the 29th. The rest was nickel and dimer tenths events.

Jan started out slow with no measurable snowfall until mid month on the 14th-15th with 6" and 13" on the 25-26th Total was 20.2"-- just really only two snows, much like DEC- with nickel and dimers.

Feb was a different animal all together with mainly clippers squeezing out moisture in the brutal cold. Ended up with 11.9".

I'd gladly take a repeat, but winters like that don't happen frequently around here.

Tbh, I can't tell by your writing if you considered it a good winter or bad? Kinda mixed sentiments in each break-down. You had multiple solid hits and DJF totals that would've been above my avg's in SWMI. By comparison, thru Jan 30th my largest snowfall was 1.5" and I was sitting at 11.1" for the entire season last winter. By comparison, you had a great winter, or at least you had winter, while it was very elusive for mby.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Tbh, I can't tell by your writing if you considered it a good winter or bad? Kinda mixed sentiments in each break-down. You had multiple solid hits and DJF totals that would've been above my avg's in SWMI. By comparison, thru Jan 30th my largest snowfall was 1.5" and I was sitting at 11.1" for the entire season last winter. By comparison, you had a great winter, or at least you had winter, while it was very elusive for mby.

It was a good winter. Feb made it a great one.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It would not surprise me.  Hope you guys get it, looks like t could be a nice one.

Thx, but are you trying for Sainthood or something?? Wishing all these "rich get richer" scenarios to play out..SMH!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I pull for everyone to get snow, it's what we're all here to talk about this time of year.  

Kudos amigo. Next thing, OKwx will be in here cheering on your first storm! GFS is almost in your camp..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GFS has last winter's pattern, while the ICON shows this year's recent trend. Be interesting to see where this ends up.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Euro is quite strong with the cold blast Monday... temps falling into the teens with strong wind.  The snow system is weak.  At least for this run, the warm surge around the 10th is gone.  The pattern is much colder.

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hello from Chicago!  Glad to be back in the saddle and TBH, I'm excited to be here for the holidays and the colder wx.  Once I saw the potential for next weeks wx, I told myself "It's Time"...thankfully, the wx is cooperating today through the weekend to give me time to do ALL of my final yardwork (there is a crap load of leaves) and hopefully have time to put up some Christmas lights outdoors.

My flight back to ORD was a bit more turbulent than previous trips.  We took the northern route right over the CO Rockies into NE and IA.  I flew over Kearney, NE and waved hello to @CentralNebWeather @gabel23  and then just N of OMA, thru IA (my IA peeps)...I saw that we went over Ames, IA but clouds obscured my view so I didn't really pay attn at that point of my trip.  Nonetheless, it was another great day of flying with AA and their new Dreamliner 787.

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The "Resilient Ridge" in the west/southwest has earned its mark in this year's LRC.  It's rather unfathomable how persistent this ridge has been for the entire month of NOV.  While PHX sets an all time record for the # of 80's (25) in Nov, 2nd warmest NOV on record, it broke another record high on Dec 1st (85F).  Might tack on a couple more records today and tomorrow.  Nov 2017 was the warmest NOV on record (analog for this years pattern?).  Nevertheless, the Ridge has a few more days to go before it breaks down some and the SW Flow develops.

While flipping through the wx maps, I found an interesting development in the trends off the GEFS 500mb map over Scandinavia and the E PAC where the model is showing more of a ridge blossoming and in turn "presses" the North American trough farther south.  It is clear as day that the SW Flow part of the LRC is likely to develop next week.  So, to all those who follow the LRC, what is your take on the LRC length this year??

 

1.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

The "Resilient Ridge" in the west/southwest has earned its mark in this year's LRC.  It's rather unfathomable how persistent this ridge has been for the entire month of NOV.  While PHX sets an all time record for the # of 80's (25) in Nov, 2nd warmest NOV on record, it broke another record high on Dec 1st (85F).  Might tack on a couple more records today and tomorrow.  Nov 2017 was the warmest NOV on record (analog for this years pattern?).  Nevertheless, the Ridge has a few more days to go before it breaks down some and the SW Flow develops.

While flipping through the wx maps, I found an interesting development in the trends off the GEFS 500mb map over Scandinavia and the E PAC where the model is showing more of a ridge blossoming and in turn "presses" the North American trough farther south.  It is clear as day that the SW Flow part of the LRC is likely to develop next week.  So, to all those who follow the LRC, what is your take on the LRC length this year??

 

1.gif

As of today I'm thinking 58 to 59 days, could be as long as 62 days we'll see how the models verify next week. Should be able to confirm it next week.  Whats your take?

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_25.png

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Good stuff.  We may be in the freezer to kick off the new year.

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Let's go NAM!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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The overnight low here at my house was a mild 45. At this time it is clear and 47. There are some clouds off to the NW. The snow that fell is now of course all

If the CFSv2 long range guess is correct then the month of December looks to be maybe mild and somewhat wet.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

There is a chance of a cool down around Christmas week but that is still a long ways off. Brett Anderson at Acculess weather also has it on the mild side until late December so we shall see how this plays out.

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Think I found the correct thread. Just moved to Kentucky (used to live in Oregon!) and I got to Ashland on
Nov 21st.

Can't wait for the t'storms next Spring and Summer! 

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Going for the record high today.

Tab2FileL.png

Is 66 today significant here? I have to re-learn all the local "what's unusual" and what isn't. ;)

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

The "Resilient Ridge" in the west/southwest has earned its mark in this year's LRC.  It's rather unfathomable how persistent this ridge has been for the entire month of NOV.  While PHX sets an all time record for the # of 80's (25) in Nov, 2nd warmest NOV on record, it broke another record high on Dec 1st (85F).  Might tack on a couple more records today and tomorrow.  Nov 2017 was the warmest NOV on record (analog for this years pattern?).  Nevertheless, the Ridge has a few more days to go before it breaks down some and the SW Flow develops.

While flipping through the wx maps, I found an interesting development in the trends off the GEFS 500mb map over Scandinavia and the E PAC where the model is showing more of a ridge blossoming and in turn "presses" the North American trough farther south.  It is clear as day that the SW Flow part of the LRC is likely to develop next week.  So, to all those who follow the LRC, what is your take on the LRC length this year??

 

1.gif

I've had a theory for a while that the RRR that was hanging out off the west coast a few years ago has been very slowly migrating east little by little each year.  That's based on nothing but periodic observations that there always seems to be a ridge west of KC that's been messing up our winters, but noticing that it's further east than the RRR that was off the west coast.  But I have no confidence in that take.  

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes the record high today for KC is 70.  I'm forecasted to hit 74.

Meant for Ashland, KY. I might be done with 70's at my location until next year. 

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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27 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Think I found the correct thread. Just moved to Kentucky (used to live in Oregon!) and I got to Ashland on
Nov 21st.

Can't wait for the t'storms next Spring and Summer! 

Welcome to the Midwest subforum! Much less bickering than the West, though still some.

  • Storm 1

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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26 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Is 66 today significant here? I have to re-learn all the local "what's unusual" and what isn't. ;)

Looks to be well above average, with average highs in the upper 40s.

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  • Popcorn 1

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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10 hours ago, james1976 said:

 

Jim Flowers already calling off winter. This is from his Facebook:

This is an important reminder, my best fit winter was 2008-2009. If I recall there was only one snow greater than 5” and that was in December. Most of the winters had totals of 20-22”. We are not looking at much this winter no matter  how you cut it.

I was waiting for the first one to fold and call it. Almost made a post yesterday asking for first bets on who will cancel winter.

 

The GFS is a sad piece of work for sure. I'm not happy either, but this weather is keeping everyone off my ski hill, I didn't have to wait in line once all afternoon yesterday, though they opened up at 2pm, so the sun and heat started to melt the man made snow, then the sun goes down and it all turns to ice. Honestly compared to how the lines and everything was last year I actually don't mind this very much. As long as we don't get a lot of rain and warm, or we get some good chances to make snow (Monday to Thursday morning are awesome for making snow with the temps and low dew point) I'll be happy.

If there were other boats on the lake I would totally go out on my stand up jet ski, always wanted to merge snowboard and jet ski season. I cam really close one year, closed the hill on Monday then the next Friday I was out on the lake. But the water is really cold this time of year and I have to wear a diving wetsuit that's just too thick to let you move around very well.

Winters have been so backloaded the last few years, it's really like winter has changed and it runs from Jan 1st to mid March.

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17 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Looks to be well above average, with average highs in the upper 40s.

On the 26th it was 34 and flurries in the afternoon. Temps seem to swing more wildly here so far compared to where I came from. And nights are a little warmer than Klamath Falls too. They get weeks straight in the 20's for low.

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

On the 26th it was 34 and flurries in the afternoon. Temps seem to swing more wildly here so far compared to where I came from. And nights are a little warmer than Klamath Falls too. They get weeks straight in the 20's for low.

You're in your new location.

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The "storm" for Tuesday is fading away. Not a surprise. At this point, it's hard to see us getting any snowfall before Christmas. 

I sure hope this is not a sign that we are in for a boring winter. Hopefully things change so we can get more winter storms. 

 

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Up to 61.0 IMBY, up from 54.5 an hour ago. One would think 70 should be an easy target with 3-3.5 hours of heating yet....

Valley NWS isn't so sure. Just sent out this update.

UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

We did lower the high temperature forecast a couple of degrees
this morning. Have some concern about overall poor mixing and
whether the true warmth can be realized. Will monitor how temps
rise in the next few hours. Still a fabulous day, but just a
couple degrees lower than previously forecast.
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Once again today our temp is going nowhere.  The northern half of Iowa is stuck in the upper 40s to near 50º.

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Canadian is more favorable for the early week system next week than the GFS.  

 

Pretty soon a storm thread could probably be fired up for the 12/5 ish storm that looks to hit the upper midwest and GL's.  And if trends continue we may get our first accumulating snow further south on or around 12/8.  

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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That GFS is not budging....more of the same, above average temps. Now, the ICON and GEM have snow here in KC next week....

The GFS has been right over the last month on these warm-ups and sustained warm-ups...yes, it has flashed some cold, but, overall, most runs have been WARM.

I'm hoping its wrong

We'll see what model wins out, the colder/snowier ones or the warmer/rainier ones. 

Game on! 

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