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PNW December 2021 Observations


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Woke up to a coating of snow here and 32 degrees.

Dry for now... but the 06Z ECMWF does show the precip making it inland this afternoon with some light snow.    Temps looks marginal but 925mb temps are around -1C or -2C all day and that seems to be the key parameter for snow here    

925 temp is back up to +3C tomorrow and then falls back to -1C on Thursday and Friday.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

C'mon Rob good times ahead!

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9440000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-9440000.png

The West Pacific shuts down in just 2 days roughly when the EPO drops to neutral or slightly below. I just feel quite confident as that takes place is when the models go completely nuts with the cold/snow and before Day 7. We shall see....
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33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
Model analysis, Thoughts
 
The 00z model suite last night and now 6z GFS/GEFS earlier this morning showed some potential unfavorable trends with a strong cut-off low/trough meandering off California phasing with the arctic trough thus stalling the cold air over northern Washington or southern British Columbia. That's a possibility. I also want to point out that this pattern progression with a huge block evolving from the Aleutians and up over western Alaska is not our typical path to cold, arctic air. We usually see a ridge offshore back to the west retrograding towards the Gulf of Alaska opening the door to the bitter air to the north. It's not impossible with the solution the models are showing, but it's not typical.
 
What we really want to see is the models reverting back to a kona low, or cut-off low anchored near the base of the block. I took a deeper dive into the models looking for any trends we can latch onto. Aside from 00z runs last night which appears to have begun to trend unfavorably, there is yet no definitive trend, and when you're 7+ days out from a possible cold pattern there often isn't. I looked at the past 8 runs(2 days of runs) of the GFS and GEFS centered at day 5. The solutions were kind of all over the place and showed little to no model consistency. My thinking is models are not handling the massive pattern change to come and any subsequent cut-off lows.
 
The aforementioned cut-off low is a shortwave forecast to move through the Aleutians day 3.5 to 4, then over southern Alaska day 4.5.. At day 5 to 5.5 it slides south off southeast Alaska, BC coast. By day 6 to 6.5 it's sliding south off the OR/CA Coast. The thing to watch over the next 2-3 day is how this feature is handled along with the evolving block. Hopefully they either send the shortwave down the BC Coast, then well south into California, or retrograde it back to the west under the block. Not sure that's a high likelihood, but it's possible. As long as the cut-off low does not phase with the arctic trough sliding south from British Columbia.
 
This is how model riding goes. We've seen this song and dance many times. One trend appears, seems established, everything looks good, then models flop, then a new trend seems certain to be locked in, it's a disaster, then within 96-120 hours it becomes favorable/cold again, or 72 hours out the ridge/block doesn't hold and the cold slides off to the east. Is this new cut-off situation off CA holding up the arctic trough the last trend we'll see? I don't think so. I put a lot of weight on the tanked -PNA, EPO soon to turn neutral, then flip negative, the MJO in phase 7, and the -PDO. A lot is going to change between now and say 00z runs Wednesday/Thursday, but no idea if that ends up in our favor or not. Cautiously optimistic.

Nice analysis DJ 

32* 

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33 here in The Swamp.

Just can't seem to crack the freezing mark.

Very strange fall/winter so far.  Sometimes we've had 10 freezes by now.  Often times right after Halloween.

The flow off the Pacific is a major factor with AR after AR after AR.

The upcoming pattern looks to be quite complicated.  Who knows where the high will actually set up and where those meandering lows will go.  Model mayhem is in store to close out 2021.

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Seriously the 6z suggests a replay of 1861-62.

 

Up to 25” liquid equivalent falling on Sierra Nevada or almost 20 feet of snow per gfs at higher elevations.  

some interesting weather is coming up. Perhaps a storm king 2, a Dec 1964 replay or something totally cool or uncool 

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29 and clear. A dusting of snow last night around 11pm. 06z was definitely not an arctic fever dream, but at least no torch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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28 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I was six years old then, don’t remember much but here’s some interesting info

https://mynorthwest.com/1516426/lost-clues-winter-1861-1862/amp/

Ahh yes I remember now. Very cold and snowy and our wagon broke a wheel.  What a time. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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34 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I was six years old then, don’t remember much but here’s some interesting info

https://mynorthwest.com/1516426/lost-clues-winter-1861-1862/amp/

I want to live as long as you have!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

After 30 hours of rain it finally switched over to snow around 4pm yesterday. Picked up 24" by 3am. We got about 50% of the forecasted amounts. All of the computer models had the snow levels off by 1k

20211214_073344.jpg

Beautiful 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Woke up to a skiff of snow on the grass. D*mn! Missed the first flakes of the season. 

Temp is sitting at 30. Cold air seems to be settling in better today. Hopefully that means something good for later. 

Same here, first official trace of snow recorded.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Went back on my security cameras and watched the snow fall from 2:45-3:10 this morning so technically, I still saw the first flakes... Just not with my own two eyes. I'll take it though!

That's a whole new level of weenie.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The 6z had one of the biggest snowstorms in Seattle history around day 12-15.

 

sn10_acc.us_state_wa (20).png

 

flat,750x,075,f-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.jpg

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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Looks like EUG hit at least 28.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Low of 35 here despite fairly clear skies much of the night with 0.00" of rain. I was surprised it was still 41 degrees when I got home just before midnight.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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Well... 

59314B88-60BB-4FD7-B030-BB85F6C694E5.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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