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PNW December 2021 Observations


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29 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Well, I guess it’s not going to snow. But I did find this photo of a photo of December 1996. 

752E93F8-BF3D-4DE0-9FC6-D039654C150E.jpeg

I'm still bitter at that storm. We got a new Nintendo 64 for Christmas that year, and then lost power the next day. We were in the dark and the cold for 4 days, unable to play with our new toy. For teenage me, it was sheer torture. 😂

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10 minutes ago, xfkirsten said:

I'm still bitter at that storm. We got a new Nintendo 64 for Christmas that year, and then lost power the next day. We were in the dark and the cold for 4 days, unable to play with our new toy. For teenage me, it was sheer torture. 😂

The agony!

I had a 4 yo and a 1 yo and they were NOT happy that the VCR wouldn’t play the Lion King for the 500th time. You have one job Dad, make sure we are entertained!

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WOW> Just playing catch up from all the posts. Even for my Spokane location there is some huge differences in snow totals here. From a .5 inch up to 12 to 16 inches. Either way I believe I will see something, but now I am mainly routing for my westside brothers and sisters... GO south and weaken just a little and you could really do well!! Fingers crossed!!!!

 

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Holy crap!  The 18z GFS goes to show why I'm such a fan of baroclinicity over closed lows.  If that run verifies we will have lowland snow Sunday night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy crap!  The 18z GFS goes to show why I'm such a fan of baroclinicity over closed lows.  If that run verifies we will have lowland snow Sunday night.

Verification is always our problem

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Sub 50 high at SLE.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, Kayla said:

I also have a lot of trust in the 3km NAM after that event as well. I'll never forget that 2017 event right before our move as it was spot on.

It will be interesting to see what it says once the Monday morning event gets into view but it does look like this one is slipping away.

It's pretty great that you got to experience a top tier snowstorm in PDX as your final one before your move. You were on the west hills right? You probably had ridiculous totals up there though maybe it isn't anything much compared to what you see in Bozeman on the regular?

 

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4 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

It's pretty great that you got to experience a top tier snowstorm in PDX as your final one before your move. You were on the west hills right? You probably had ridiculous totals up there though maybe it isn't anything much compared to what you see in Bozeman on the regular?

 

Ask for a photo of her house during the storm. It will make your jaw drop.

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Amazing sunset. This phone camera warms the colors and I haven’t figured out how to fix it. The real colors are even better than the photo shows. 

63BC3347-B777-432C-B639-87510E512EBD.jpeg

Spectacular!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

It's pretty great that you got to experience a top tier snowstorm in PDX as your final one before your move. You were on the west hills right? You probably had ridiculous totals up there though maybe it isn't anything much compared to what you see in Bozeman on the regular?

 

Yeah we had 18” with that one in like 8hrs which is what made it so impressive. Made our move rather difficult 4 days later to say the least! 
 

Most of the snows in Bozeman are smaller and of greater duration (and much more often of course!) but we have had a few that have rivaled that one. This past early October being one when we saw 16” in about the same amount of time here. Nonetheless, that Jan. 2017 system was one very special storm and was a heck of a Portland send off!🥰

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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43/31 today made it the coldest day of the winter so far. Here's to hoping we see a few flakes and maybe a tiny bit of accumulation tomorrow.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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Looks like the 18z ECMWF is better than the 12z too.  It also shows more of a baroclinic zone Sunday night as opposed to a closed low.  Stay tuned!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah we had 18” with that one in like 8hrs which is what made it so impressive. Made our move rather difficult 4 days later to say the least! 
 

Most of the snows in Bozeman are smaller and of greater duration (and much more often of course!) but we have had a few that have rivaled that one. This past early October being one when we saw 16” in about the same amount of time here. Nonetheless, that Jan. 2017 system was one very special storm and was a heck of a Portland send off!🥰

That's awesome. Yeah I think the Jan 2017 event will be remembered for a long time by PDX weather geeks.

Now that you've been in MT for a few years, has snow become any less special or exciting?

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You mean this one?? Just a wee bit of drifting☺️

0ADCD8D7-F923-4F49-A7ED-9B7350E54CFD.thumb.jpeg.dfd1a5e057e26fe3a73861d847cca943.jpeg

 

Really wish I had the foresight to take a few pictures that week-- never seen anything like it. Just twelve hours of dumping snow and occasional lightning. If that ice storm the week after had panned out I have no doubt there would have been several trees on the house.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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43/38 here today. Chilliest day of the cold season so far. Hoping the patterns still favorable enough to maybe get a snow hike in out on green mountain Monday. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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39/32 on the day. 
One thing I am noticing…Typically with these marginal situations I see temps hanging around 39 or 40 degrees hours before the moisture moves in which always makes me question if there is going to be enough evap cooling to get the snow machine going…A lot of times it ends up being 34 or 35 degree rain or slop. However it’s currently 35 and cloudy so I feel like we are ahead of the game with this one. Time will tell! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

That's awesome. Yeah I think the Jan 2017 event will be remembered for a long time by PDX weather geeks.

Now that you've been in MT for a few years, has snow become any less special or exciting?

Not her of course, but I experienced a similar move, from Bellingham to Leavenworth.  Leavenworth averages 94 inches of snow per year, and typically we have snow cover for about 3 months.

It is not as exciting, especially the 1-2 inch events.  Heavier snow though is still a lot of fun, as well as any snow in December and the first snow of the season.

But it is nice to not be so stressed if a storm busts, there will always be more.  In Bellingham or any place West of the Cascades, a busted snow may mean you have to wait a year or two.

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Just now, Phil said:

Blinders.

18z does spit out a bit more snow for the North Sound but it’s definitely slightly warmer and North of the 12z overall.

 

E1868B85-579B-4962-B693-00CB31BB8E8A.png

480E64CC-B138-4FBE-AE35-501DD0FD97F4.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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We may still see the first flakes of the season still Monday here which is good enough for me. Figured this event wouldn’t pan out since a lot of the forum experts and local Seattle area Mets just weren’t on board. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Huh? Looks warmer I thought. 

Cooler 850s, 925s, and surface.  More lowland snow further south also.  This is going to come down to surface low details.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not her of course, but I experienced a similar move, from Bellingham to Leavenworth.  Leavenworth averages 94 inches of snow per year, and typically we have snow cover for about 3 months.

It is not as exciting, especially the 1-2 inch events.  Heavier snow though is still a lot of fun, as well as any snow in December and the first snow of the season.

But it is nice to not be so stressed if a storm busts, there will always be more.  In Bellingham or any place West of the Cascades, a busted snow may mean you have to wait a year or two.

I agree to this 100%.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z does spit out a bit more snow for the North Sound but it’s definitely slightly warmer and North of the 12z overall.

 

E1868B85-579B-4962-B693-00CB31BB8E8A.png

480E64CC-B138-4FBE-AE35-501DD0FD97F4.png

That's totally different than the Weatherbell maps.  Weird.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some random thoughts for the day.

First...last night I realized how utterly ridiculous it was that I got so wrapped up in a couple of model runs in a situation we all know will change on every run.  Sometimes I forget what they are showing is just a possibility and not reality!  Obviously some of the runs that came after the ones I found favorable yesterday weren't as good, but now we see the 18z coming back again.  I have to apologize for acting like such a madman yesterday evening when debating possible outcomes a few days down the road.

Second...The track of tonight and tomorrow's low is textbook perfect for snow in this area if there was any kind of cold air around to work with.  Obviously it's pretty chilly out there, but it would still be a reach for an even perfect low / track to bring lowland snow.  I will say the track and characteristics are so textbook perfect it could still bring something.

Third...This last couple of days has to take the cake for a dramatic cooling with so little discernable difference at the 500mb level.  Today came in with 41/31 here and it felt downright cold after the recent torch.  Amazing how we could have so much CAA with so little fanfare.  Nothing more than a shift from southerly to northerly winds.  No deep trough, no heavy rain, no high wind.  Nothing.

Fourth...I'm still liking our chances for a bit later in the month.  A lot of model runs have shown some crazy blocking down the road.  We will just need the details to come together.

Jim, nothing to apologize about and I or anyone else wouldn't want you to change. Your knowledge and enthusiasm is why we all love you so much. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Blinders.

Let's just try to keep civil tonight.  I don't want a repeat of last night.  No need for insults.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some random thoughts for the day.

First...last night I realized how utterly ridiculous it was that I got so wrapped up in a couple of model runs in a situation we all know will change on every run.  Sometimes I forget what they are showing is just a possibility and not reality!  Obviously some of the runs that came after the ones I found favorable yesterday weren't as good, but now we see the 18z coming back again.  I have to apologize for acting like such a madman yesterday evening when debating possible outcomes a few days down the road.

Second...The track of tonight and tomorrow's low is textbook perfect for snow in this area if there was any kind of cold air around to work with.  Obviously it's pretty chilly out there, but it would still be a reach for an even perfect low / track to bring lowland snow.  I will say the track and characteristics are so textbook perfect it could still bring something.

Third...This last couple of days has to take the cake for a dramatic cooling with so little discernable difference at the 500mb level.  Today came in with 41/31 here and it felt downright cold after the recent torch.  Amazing how we could have so much CAA with so little fanfare.  Nothing more than a shift from southerly to northerly winds.  No deep trough, no heavy rain, no high wind.  Nothing.

Fourth...I'm still liking our chances for a bit later in the month.  A lot of model runs have shown some crazy blocking down the road.  We will just need the details to come together.

I love your commentary, keep it up. 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jim, nothing to apologize about and I or anyone else wouldn't want you to change. Your knowledge and enthusiasm is why we all love you so much. 

Thanks!

I just felt out of control last night, and it was all about model output that will change on the next run(s).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

We average about 125” of snowfall a year and I can honestly say that the snowstorms are still just as special here just without the stress of worrying about forecast busts! I still really enjoy tracking them and staying up late and/or getting up way too early to check on the storm and snowfall totals.
 

Once a weather geek always a weather geek I guess!🤓

Did you intentionally move somewhere snowy or was it for other reasons with the bonus of snow?

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NWS temps look a lot closer to the model output now for here in Western Skagit County. Until a couple hours ago tonight was only supposed to drop to 39F, but considering it's already colder than that outside right now it was a little suspicious.

20211203_West_skagit_forecast.thumb.png.381c537c1290ef9b176dfba78f1ca7e8.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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Sitting at 38 right now.  Nice to have the chill back at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

NWS temps look a lot closer to the model output now for here in Western Skagit County. Until a couple hours ago tonight was only supposed to drop to 39F, but considering it's already colder than that outside right now it was a little suspicious.

20211203_West_skagit_forecast.thumb.png.381c537c1290ef9b176dfba78f1ca7e8.png

Today already overperformed in the cold department.  Nobody expected it to freeze last night, but it did in a number of places.  As I've mentioned even the cool period in November consistently came in under model projections.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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42/34 today. Yay

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Some random thoughts for the day.

First...last night I realized how utterly ridiculous it was that I got so wrapped up in a couple of model runs in a situation we all know will change on every run.  Sometimes I forget what they are showing is just a possibility and not reality!  Obviously some of the runs that came after the ones I found favorable yesterday weren't as good, but now we see the 18z coming back again.  I have to apologize for acting like such a madman yesterday evening when debating possible outcomes a few days down the road.

Second...The track of tonight and tomorrow's low is textbook perfect for snow in this area if there was any kind of cold air around to work with.  Obviously it's pretty chilly out there, but it would still be a reach for an even perfect low / track to bring lowland snow.  I will say the track and characteristics are so textbook perfect it could still bring something.

Third...This last couple of days has to take the cake for a dramatic cooling with so little discernable difference at the 500mb level.  Today came in with 41/31 here and it felt downright cold after the recent torch.  Amazing how we could have so much CAA with so little fanfare.  Nothing more than a shift from southerly to northerly winds.  No deep trough, no heavy rain, no high wind.  Nothing.

Fourth...I'm still liking our chances for a bit later in the month.  A lot of model runs have shown some crazy blocking down the road.  We will just need the details to come together.

Good stuff! Props!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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42/30 on the day. Currently 37. Definitely a chill in the air today. I was walking my son to the bus this morning and he said, "Dad, this feels like a frigid December morning. Is it gonna snow?" which lead to a long awkward silence and me eventually maneuvering my way out of giving an answer. 

I got in trouble last winter with my wife because I kept telling them anytime a snow chance came up on the models and kept them updated on every development. It led to some emotional ups and downs for both, but especially my son, when the inevitable rug pulls and delays occurred. He got pretty upset a few times. So now I'm trying to be very careful with how much I say and when, especially with borderline stuff like this.

I hope one day he will become a professional model rider like us and be able to handle the emotional turbulence it entails but he's not there yet. I will be a proud dad when that day comes.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Some random thoughts for the day.

First...last night I realized how utterly ridiculous it was that I got so wrapped up in a couple of model runs in a situation we all know will change on every run.  Sometimes I forget what they are showing is just a possibility and not reality!  Obviously some of the runs that came after the ones I found favorable yesterday weren't as good, but now we see the 18z coming back again.  I have to apologize for acting like such a madman yesterday evening when debating possible outcomes a few days down the road.

Second...The track of tonight and tomorrow's low is textbook perfect for snow in this area if there was any kind of cold air around to work with.  Obviously it's pretty chilly out there, but it would still be a reach for an even perfect low / track to bring lowland snow.  I will say the track and characteristics are so textbook perfect it could still bring something.

Third...This last couple of days has to take the cake for a dramatic cooling with so little discernable difference at the 500mb level.  Today came in with 41/31 here and it felt downright cold after the recent torch.  Amazing how we could have so much CAA with so little fanfare.  Nothing more than a shift from southerly to northerly winds.  No deep trough, no heavy rain, no high wind.  Nothing.

Fourth...I'm still liking our chances for a bit later in the month.  A lot of model runs have shown some crazy blocking down the road.  We will just need the details to come together.

It’s all good. Weather is a brutal hobby. Happens to all of us every once in awhile.

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