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PNW December 2021 Observations


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Well... What the models are showing is a lot better than the past 6 weeks of torching. I think we'll finally at least get towards more seasonal temperatures. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS gives most of the Western WA lowlands a 10-20% chance of at least one inch by next Tuesday. Foothills and North Sound are more in the 20-40% range.

This is an improvement over 00z EPS which showed 0% chance for most.

1638900000-Tge757xbxdA.png

I see the Oregon Cascades have a 50/50 shot at 1" of snow. :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's 59 here at the moment! We should be in the 30s. We're turning into Los Angeles.🌴

56 here.

Everyone is torching today. 🔥 

317BE660-4A53-4CB8-AA5B-8C0F6660EF37.webp

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

It’s been some fun cloud gazing so far this morning..

5616F213-76A3-4357-AC53-9879F1EF2AB3.thumb.jpeg.aa5cb23e37761d5d56ab4f23d8ea4c43.jpeg

8B82DE57-9A6E-4794-A929-EF50FAB7BD04.thumb.jpeg.5ed00bb1aae3a000fbbb423c1f7ef9ed.jpeg

I was just going to mention the really cool looking sky conditions around here today.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... What the models are showing is a lot better than the past 6 weeks of torching. I think we'll finally at least get towards more seasonal temperatures. 

Yeah... the torch ends after today.     Although the ECMWF is already too cool for the high today and its not even noon yet.

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8360000.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Type of pattern that can feature very low 500mb height anomalies over the GOA/NW-North America, but will present with mediocre temperature anomalies everywhere except AK/Yukon domain in reality.

Generally want the TPV out of the western Arctic/Beaufort to initiate the process. And that still leaves you with an Alaska low/+EPO. We have a lot of work to do.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Type of pattern that can feature very low 500mb height anomalies over the GOA/NW-North America, but will present with mediocre temperature anomalies everywhere except AK/Yukon domain in reality.

Generally want the TPV out of the western Arctic/Beaufort to initiate the process. And that still leaves you with an Alaska low/+EPO. We have a lot of work to do.

It snowed here in January 2000!

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Type of pattern that can feature very low 500mb height anomalies over the GOA/NW-North America, but will present with mediocre temperature anomalies everywhere except AK/Yukon domain in reality.

Generally want the TPV out of the western Arctic/Beaufort to initiate the process. And that still leaves you with an Alaska low/+EPO. We have a lot of work to do.

It either will improve or it won't. Nothing we have to "work" on.  😉

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Quite remarkable ensemble improvement on the big three today.  The control run on the GEFS shows 850s dropping to -15.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

It either will improve or it won't. Nothing we have to "work" on.  😉

Wait... nature does not respond to cheerleading??    I have wasted a great deal of my life.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It snowed here in January 2000!

At Salem in the year's since, 15 Januaries have been warmer and only 6 have been colder... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Even the ECMWF shows the AK cold getting dislodged and kicked into the Yukon and BC.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Looks like about a third of the GEFS members drop to -10 or lower late in the run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Full EPS run, slowly moves the center of the troughing towards the PNW. Still more of a + EPO component than the GEFS.

530141330_EPS20211201.gif

It's pretty sharp at the end though.  There are undoubtedly a lot of very good members.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The MJO forecasts continue to advertise a pretty strong wave in 6 and 7 about the emerge.  The longer range EMOM shows it remaining there for quite a while.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

CPC 8-14 day analog

814analog_off.gif.e7b08c58b7261220f2e744636b3bb585.gif

 

Wow.  Some totally great years.  The top 3 are all on my analog list.  2007 is absent...again...

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, Tyler Mode said:

61 degrees...mostly sunny skies.  December 1st.

This makes me even more confident of some meaningful cold coming.  Many of the greats torched hard just before hand.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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