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PNW December 2021 Observations


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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tim pointed this out yesterday, but Seattle might not even get much precip at all out of this, let alone snowfall. Could be a few hundredths of an inch at this rate

Yeah... if the models had stuck with heavier precip than the GFS would still be showing lots of snow.  It was able to pick up on the fact that it will be actually be a mostly dry day more quickly than it would be able figure out that temps in the upper 30s does not mean half a foot of snow in downtown Seattle.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Down to 32 at SLE. The mid week system seems to be looking better for high elevation snow down here. Ski resorts could get over a foot. 1-3” seems like a good call here at this point. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS has even less than 06z. 

At least it corrected itself this time before the actual event started. Might dock it a half point instead of a full point in my score keeping.

gfs-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-8867600.png

I don't give it any credit... because all it did was finally adjust for a lack of precip.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Down to 29F here this morning and very frosty out. It's nice to finally start picking up some freezes after such a warm fall, but not so nice to see all the snow disappear. Still hoping to maybe get enough to make a snowball.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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53 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

It would be a D**n shame if all that cold air dumped out over the ocean with the ridge too far west.  wow!

Unfortunately that is what the 12Z GFS shows...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1638705600-1639137600-1639472400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately that is what the 12Z GFS shows...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1638705600-1639137600-1639472400-10.gif

It’s a disgusting progression. Torches the entire lower 48. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Once again the models were too high with low temps last night.  The 0z ECMWF had SEA dropping to 36 this morning and yesterday's 12z showed 38.  In actuality it dropped to 33.  Obviously the cold model bias has been over compensated for now with the surface progs, as this has been typical of all of our cool periods this season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s a disgusting progression. Torches the entire lower 48. 

The ensembles have been showing constantly below normal for the NW though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ensembles have been showing constantly below normal for the NW though.

It’s been a trend on the GFS to keep the trough offshore. The 12z is an extreme example. Might be able to get some inversions going at least.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Once again the models were too high with low temps last night.  The 0z ECMWF had SEA dropping to 36 this morning and yesterday's 12z showed 38.  In actuality it dropped to 33.  Obviously the cold model bias has been over compensated for now with the surface progs, as this has been typical of all of our cool periods this season.

I don't think anything has been adjusted.    It just comes down to minor details like breaks in the clouds at this time of year.   Its not like it will be uniformly too warm every night now.   And the ECMWF cold bias is generally a warm season thing anyways.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF seasonals updated and show Dec, Jan, and Feb all colder than normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s been a trend on the GFS to keep the trough offshore. The 12z is an extreme example. Might be able to get some inversions going at least.

There isn't a ton of support for the trough staying over the ocean as much as the operational GFS is showing though.  It still straightens out later in the run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Looks like we got all the way down to 37F. Coldest temp in 10 days.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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52 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Down to 29F here this morning and very frosty out. It's nice to finally start picking up some freezes after such a warm fall, but not so nice to see all the snow disappear. Still hoping to maybe get enough to make a snowball.

You might get some up there.  The Monday system is just a shell of what had been shown a few days ago though.

At least we are stringing some below normal days together.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 hour ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.gif.d4851d1a55f2d06c6ffb8a190ae6da9e.gifimage.thumb.gif.3688504398bd276cf2d2231cffc76cb6.gifthe euro seasonal has spoken image.thumb.gif.d4851d1a55f2d06c6ffb8a190ae6da9e.gifimage.thumb.gif.3688504398bd276cf2d2231cffc76cb6.gif

The general look of the 500mb and surface pressure anoms look better than the temperature maps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, GobBluth said:

I'm not believing that until the EPO flips.

It's supposed to in the 15th to 20th period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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9 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Haha sorry it's late. I always get Boeing Field mixed up with Paine Field even though I lived in SnoCo for several years.

I forgot that Boeing Field is that field just north of SeaTac.

Lol, I’ve done that a lot simply because Boeing Field should be where the HUGE hanger is where they make the planes!   Recommend the tour of that facility as well.   
 

Been sitting at 32* since 8:32

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Is Medford really having a week-long inversion? I see on their observations Nov 30th was the last time they weren't reporting mist or fog. 🤡

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Everleigh said:

33.6* here this morning. Partly cloudy. The deck wasn't slippery or icy when I took Mogwai out. Really hoping I see some flakes tonight/tomorrow, but I guess that's just wishful thinking at this point. :(

Is Mogwai a cat or dog?   Loved the movie 

 

 

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Now this I can get onboard with! And right on time...just need a bit more amplification into AK.

1766818054_ScreenShot2021-12-05at10_04_11AM.thumb.png.a57dc94772e578ef5d539330daf26ab2.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS has even less than 06z. 

At least it corrected itself this time before the actual event started. Might dock it a half point instead of a full point in my score keeping.

gfs-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-8867600.png

In a tiny bit of defense for the earlier GFS maps being so snowy...all of the models were showing the Monday system being much more favorable for snow a few days ago.  For some reason the thing just doesn't dig like the earlier runs had shown.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Now this I can get onboard with! And right on time...just need a bit more amplification into AK.

1766818054_ScreenShot2021-12-05at10_04_11AM.thumb.png.a57dc94772e578ef5d539330daf26ab2.png

Better.  Sorry if I was a bit harsh with you yesterday.  Too many years of being in this climate.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

In a tiny bit of defense for the earlier GFS maps being so snowy...all of the models were showing the Monday system being much more favorable for snow a few days ago.  For some reason the thing just doesn't dig like the earlier runs had shown.

The ECMWF led the way on significantly reducing overall precip amounts.    GFS is just finally catching up.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like most areas got down to or close to freezing except for the coast, Eugene/Springfield and the lower Columbia Basin.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There isn't a ton of support for the trough staying over the ocean as much as the operational GFS is showing though.  It still straightens out later in the run.

GEM seems to agree after soaking NW Oregon and SW WA with another AR.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a gorgeous morning...

20211205_090034.jpg

20211205_090404.jpg

Beautiful. Very nice here too, though we don’t have such a nice view of the mountains. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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First totally cloudy day so far this month. I hate to say it but I want to thank whoever gave me these clouds :P

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like most areas got down to or close to freezing except for the coast, Eugene/Springfield and the lower Columbia Basin.

Astoria hit 31. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

It rained in the evening and cleared out pretty fast afterwards. Lots of ice and frost everywhere with a low of 30. 

I was skeptical it would clear out so quickly, it was still raining lightly and in the mid 40s around 10pm.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Astoria hit 31. 

Oof, then we really got the shaft again. So the SW coast then and then just us and the lower Columbia Basin.

This fuckking sucks. Will probly get close to 60F again today.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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Do y'all think an Arctic trough will ever make it this far south again with this warming regime?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Observations
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