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Dec 4th-6th Northland Snow


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No watch for my county, but there is one for the county north of me. SHOCKED, I tell you!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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The RAP brings the low along the Canadian border, lmao. I'm so close to punting this storm.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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GFS isn't great for here (WWA event), but better than the mesoscale models. 

But MAN does it bomb this thing over the UP once a baroclinic zone is established. From 998 over here to 986 over Northern ON.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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A few days ago, the Euro was hitting SEMI with this. Let that be a lesson..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm liking the trend on Euro. Brings it through SD for the most part, before cutting the low briefly and bringing it East of me. On paper that sounds like a bad thing, but it's the start of a southerly trend. Just need the trough to dig a bit more.

Now, I AM discouraged by the overall drier trend. An earlier digging trough would help immensely with that.

sn10_acc.conus.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Is anyone else not able to view snow SREF plumes, or am I just being stupid?

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I can't either but I do have the mean.  Any help?

1638856800-D7Ur6dNNQfA.png

Oh yeah I got that too, I was just wondering about the plumes.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Quite a difference between HRRR/RAP and every other model on the face of the Earth. 18Z HRRR tanks the SLP down to 992 (which I have a hard time believing when literally no other model has it getting that low until it's over the UP) and brings it along the Canadian border here. Every other model has the low trekking though SD.

 

Edit: Though I will say that NAM is initializing alarmingly close to HRRR @ hr 27...

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

 

Now, I AM discouraged by the overall drier trend. An earlier digging trough would help immensely with that.

 

All of the medium range models seem to have a bias of overdoing the pacific moisture remnant of storms tracking due west to east over the northern rockies and through the dakotas.   

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Thanks, the site must have been down when I was looking at it. I had the right site.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I'm under a watch for blizzard potential. With a slight south trend, Sunday could be Funday here.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Madtown- how are the lakes up there as far as ice cover/thickness?? I would imagine this snow is not going to help matters- (ie. slush/bad ice do to insulating of the snow)

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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28 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Madtown- how are the lakes up there as far as ice cover/thickness?? I would imagine this snow is not going to help matters- (ie. slush/bad ice do to insulating of the snow)

The ice in the band that got the 6 to 8" the other day is shot already Had 2" of ice and then that. Ice fishing will be a dangerous game till mid Jan

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1 hour ago, Madtown said:

 

Let's lock this in Grizz

100% agree lock that in!

 

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Madtown- how are the lakes up there as far as ice cover/thickness?? I would imagine this snow is not going to help matters- (ie. slush/bad ice do to insulating of the snow

Ice anglers are like farmers, always finding something to complain about weather wise. I here it from all around my area.

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6 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

100% agree lock that in!

 

Ice anglers are like farmers, always finding something to complain about weather wise. I here it from all around my area.

I used to ice fish a lot on Red and LOTW back in the day. Still get up every few years. This can't help those lakes either as far as good ice. Have they been running 4 wheelers or sleds yet on those lakes or is still too thin?. RED is usually the first to really get the resorts hopping. Your in Baudette? I caught the following (31") down by Indus on the river FEB 1996- right after the -60F in Tower,MN. image.png.e629513e7d7169949e89a8a050e7f56b.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yes, Baudette. Saw somebody out on Red in a portable driving down the Wednesday morning before Thanksgiving. Those are the the types you hope get a search and rescue bill when the ice shifts and leaves them on an island needing rescue.

I haven't kept track of ice conditions. 45° and 40mph winds couldn't have helped anything a couple days ago.

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18 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Yes, Baudette. Saw somebody out on Red in a portable driving down the Wednesday morning before Thanksgiving. Those are the the types you hope get a search and rescue bill when the ice shifts and leaves them on an island needing rescue.

I haven't kept track of ice conditions. 45° and 40mph winds couldn't have helped anything a couple days ago.

Agree 100% on the early ice guys that push there luck. I've learned over the years that 2 weeks from early to mid/late DEC can save your life. No need rushing it.  This pic is of Red Lake 4-5 years ago. 2 on the wheeler (young couple from N burbs of Twin Cities) didn't make it. Resorts pushing the envelope for the almighty $$.

image.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Very VERY encouraging south shift on NAM. Not exactly in the defo zone, but my time spent in the dry slot is limited. 60 or so miles more and I'm golden for a textbook blizzard on Sunday.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Good luck to you guys up north.  Some of you have a waited a long time for a strong, wind driven snow to produce anything of significance.  I think this is a start to good times for ya'll up there!

0z Euro...blasts the Upper MW/Northwoods...this should be a good way to re-build the #GreatLakesGlacier....Northwoods pounding on Zzz way...

1.png

 

2.png

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Less than 24 hours out, and each model has one specific thing that makes them all outliers. For example, 00Z Euro is very weak compared to everyone else.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Warnings issued for the Northwoods and a Blizzard Warning for the lakeshores of N MN...its gonna be rippin' up that way.  I'm sure to see some intense LEHS snow bands coming off of Superior.

Quote

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
331 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

MNZ021-042145-
/O.UPG.KDLH.WS.A.0005.211205T0600Z-211206T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.BZ.W.0001.211205T1100Z-211206T1200Z/
Southern Cook-
Including the city of Grand Marais
331 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 10 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Cook County. This includes the Tribal Lands
  of the Grand Portage Reservation.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The worst conditions should be during the
  day on Sunday.

 

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Warnings issued for the Northwoods and a Blizzard Warning for the lakeshores of N MN...its gonna be rippin' up that way.  I'm sure to see some intense LEHS snow bands coming off of Superior.

 

Duluth always pulls the trigger on warnings way before FGF does it seems. Both last year and this year FGF doesn't upgrade watches until an hour or two before snow actually begins.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Duluth always pulls the trigger on warnings way before FGF does it seems. Both last year and this year FGF doesn't upgrade watches until an hour or two before snow actually begins.

What is your feeling on amounts up your way?

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

What is your feeling on amounts up your way?

I feel like 3-6" is a pretty good guess. I have a hunch that Euro is correct on the low being closer to 1000 here than 990. I'm liking the last minute south trend, hopefully I can get some defo action.

The more I get, the more confident that I'll be that we can hang onto it for the rest of Winter. If we get over 4", it'll be more than I had on the ground at one time all last winter.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Also, amounts depend on when exactly frontogenesis happens. If it's earlier than expected (which is what models showed earlier on), we can expect a few more inches in the RRV. I'm not saying we'll overachieve here, but it takes one mere model blunder for it to happen. 

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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FGF has issued a winter storm warning for along and north of a Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Bemidji line. Kinda surprised to see them really not impressed with blizzard potential considering we could see 45mph gusts on Sunday. 

Watch is still in effect everywhere South. Swear to God if they give me another f&$*!+g advisory...

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I feel like 3-6" is a pretty good guess. I have a hunch that Euro is correct on the low being closer to 1000 here than 990. I'm liking the last minute south trend, hopefully I can get some defo action.

The more I get, the more confident that I'll be that we can hang onto it for the rest of Winter. If we get over 4", it'll be more than I had on the ground at one time all last winter.

I'm rooting for ya!  Regarding the above comment, as sad as that sounds wrt to last winter, I def want you to score on this one and what lies ahead.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Good luck to you guys up north.  Some of you have a waited a long time for a strong, wind driven snow to produce anything of significance.  I think this is a start to good times for ya'll up there!

0z Euro...blasts the Upper MW/Northwoods...this should be a good way to re-build the #GreatLakesGlacier....Northwoods pounding on Zzz way...

1.png

 

2.png

Was super pumped when I saw this. Then saw im only in a watch and only my county! Not sure what to think. No watches in UP too? Oh well, got 6.5" under a Sps last week so the weather gonna do what the weather gonna do.

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Colorful options up there

image.png.7f532247eb1aeab9b74baf02b1e430d6.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF has issued a winter storm warning for along and north of a Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Bemidji line. Kinda surprised to see them really not impressed with blizzard potential considering we could see 45mph gusts on Sunday. 

Watch is still in effect everywhere South. Swear to God if they give me another f&$*!+g advisory...

At least they are keeping hope alive for ya, and playing it correctly imo. GRR woulda long since thrown you under the WWA bus and not looked back. Hoping a Warning's in your future.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NAM is South, brings my county up to warning level.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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SREF is south too, up to 4.5" on the mean.

image.thumb.png.e573cd20c8971145b4e9a4d8e4221051.png

 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I got a 4-7" warning. Leading edge of the snow is in Valley City currently.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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@Niko18z NAM gives Macomb a brief SHSN around 10 am tomorrow:

image.png.bebde0c51a10ea5442f4acca086b2db8.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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