Madtown Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 WSW are up. Let's see how it all plays out. Canadian, Euro, GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Ill be in St Paul this weekend. Maybe ill see some flakes! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 12z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 No watch for my county, but there is one for the county north of me. SHOCKED, I tell you! 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 The RAP brings the low along the Canadian border, lmao. I'm so close to punting this storm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 GFS isn't great for here (WWA event), but better than the mesoscale models. But MAN does it bomb this thing over the UP once a baroclinic zone is established. From 998 over here to 986 over Northern ON. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 A few days ago, the Euro was hitting SEMI with this. Let that be a lesson.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 I'm liking the trend on Euro. Brings it through SD for the most part, before cutting the low briefly and bringing it East of me. On paper that sounds like a bad thing, but it's the start of a southerly trend. Just need the trough to dig a bit more. Now, I AM discouraged by the overall drier trend. An earlier digging trough would help immensely with that. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Is anyone else not able to view snow SREF plumes, or am I just being stupid? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 37 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Is anyone else not able to view snow SREF plumes, or am I just being stupid? I can't either but I do have the mean. Any help? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: I can't either but I do have the mean. Any help? Oh yeah I got that too, I was just wondering about the plumes. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Quite a difference between HRRR/RAP and every other model on the face of the Earth. 18Z HRRR tanks the SLP down to 992 (which I have a hard time believing when literally no other model has it getting that low until it's over the UP) and brings it along the Canadian border here. Every other model has the low trekking though SD. Edit: Though I will say that NAM is initializing alarmingly close to HRRR @ hr 27... 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: Oh yeah I got that too, I was just wondering about the plumes. Here you go... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Cautiously getting excited here 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Nothing to the south of the Dakotas where some people are waiting for the white stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Now, I AM discouraged by the overall drier trend. An earlier digging trough would help immensely with that. All of the medium range models seem to have a bias of overdoing the pacific moisture remnant of storms tracking due west to east over the northern rockies and through the dakotas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: Here you go... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Thanks, the site must have been down when I was looking at it. I had the right site. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 I'm under a watch for blizzard potential. With a slight south trend, Sunday could be Funday here. 2 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 18Z Euro- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z Euro- Let's lock this in Grizz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Madtown- how are the lakes up there as far as ice cover/thickness?? I would imagine this snow is not going to help matters- (ie. slush/bad ice do to insulating of the snow) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Madtown- how are the lakes up there as far as ice cover/thickness?? I would imagine this snow is not going to help matters- (ie. slush/bad ice do to insulating of the snow) The ice in the band that got the 6 to 8" the other day is shot already Had 2" of ice and then that. Ice fishing will be a dangerous game till mid Jan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Madtown said: Let's lock this in Grizz 100% agree lock that in! 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: Madtown- how are the lakes up there as far as ice cover/thickness?? I would imagine this snow is not going to help matters- (ie. slush/bad ice do to insulating of the snow Ice anglers are like farmers, always finding something to complain about weather wise. I here it from all around my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: 100% agree lock that in! Ice anglers are like farmers, always finding something to complain about weather wise. I here it from all around my area. I used to ice fish a lot on Red and LOTW back in the day. Still get up every few years. This can't help those lakes either as far as good ice. Have they been running 4 wheelers or sleds yet on those lakes or is still too thin?. RED is usually the first to really get the resorts hopping. Your in Baudette? I caught the following (31") down by Indus on the river FEB 1996- right after the -60F in Tower,MN. 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Yes, Baudette. Saw somebody out on Red in a portable driving down the Wednesday morning before Thanksgiving. Those are the the types you hope get a search and rescue bill when the ice shifts and leaves them on an island needing rescue. I haven't kept track of ice conditions. 45° and 40mph winds couldn't have helped anything a couple days ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: Yes, Baudette. Saw somebody out on Red in a portable driving down the Wednesday morning before Thanksgiving. Those are the the types you hope get a search and rescue bill when the ice shifts and leaves them on an island needing rescue. I haven't kept track of ice conditions. 45° and 40mph winds couldn't have helped anything a couple days ago. Agree 100% on the early ice guys that push there luck. I've learned over the years that 2 weeks from early to mid/late DEC can save your life. No need rushing it. This pic is of Red Lake 4-5 years ago. 2 on the wheeler (young couple from N burbs of Twin Cities) didn't make it. Resorts pushing the envelope for the almighty $$. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 To be fair to resorts. Anyone can drive up and access a lake from a public access with marginal ice conditions. Back to snow, first difinitive map with amounts I've seen from nws 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 holding steady if not getting a little bit better around these parts on the 18z GFS. Really good local guy saying tonight looks like lake effect is gonna pound Monday into Tues 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Very VERY encouraging south shift on NAM. Not exactly in the defo zone, but my time spent in the dry slot is limited. 60 or so miles more and I'm golden for a textbook blizzard on Sunday. 4 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Good luck to you guys up north. Some of you have a waited a long time for a strong, wind driven snow to produce anything of significance. I think this is a start to good times for ya'll up there! 0z Euro...blasts the Upper MW/Northwoods...this should be a good way to re-build the #GreatLakesGlacier....Northwoods pounding on Zzz way... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Less than 24 hours out, and each model has one specific thing that makes them all outliers. For example, 00Z Euro is very weak compared to everyone else. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Warnings issued for the Northwoods and a Blizzard Warning for the lakeshores of N MN...its gonna be rippin' up that way. I'm sure to see some intense LEHS snow bands coming off of Superior. Quote Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 331 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 MNZ021-042145- /O.UPG.KDLH.WS.A.0005.211205T0600Z-211206T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KDLH.BZ.W.0001.211205T1100Z-211206T1200Z/ Southern Cook- Including the city of Grand Marais 331 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Southern Cook County. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The worst conditions should be during the day on Sunday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Tom said: Warnings issued for the Northwoods and a Blizzard Warning for the lakeshores of N MN...its gonna be rippin' up that way. I'm sure to see some intense LEHS snow bands coming off of Superior. Duluth always pulls the trigger on warnings way before FGF does it seems. Both last year and this year FGF doesn't upgrade watches until an hour or two before snow actually begins. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Duluth always pulls the trigger on warnings way before FGF does it seems. Both last year and this year FGF doesn't upgrade watches until an hour or two before snow actually begins. What is your feeling on amounts up your way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Tom said: What is your feeling on amounts up your way? I feel like 3-6" is a pretty good guess. I have a hunch that Euro is correct on the low being closer to 1000 here than 990. I'm liking the last minute south trend, hopefully I can get some defo action. The more I get, the more confident that I'll be that we can hang onto it for the rest of Winter. If we get over 4", it'll be more than I had on the ground at one time all last winter. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Also, amounts depend on when exactly frontogenesis happens. If it's earlier than expected (which is what models showed earlier on), we can expect a few more inches in the RRV. I'm not saying we'll overachieve here, but it takes one mere model blunder for it to happen. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 FGF has issued a winter storm warning for along and north of a Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Bemidji line. Kinda surprised to see them really not impressed with blizzard potential considering we could see 45mph gusts on Sunday. Watch is still in effect everywhere South. Swear to God if they give me another f&$*!+g advisory... 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: I feel like 3-6" is a pretty good guess. I have a hunch that Euro is correct on the low being closer to 1000 here than 990. I'm liking the last minute south trend, hopefully I can get some defo action. The more I get, the more confident that I'll be that we can hang onto it for the rest of Winter. If we get over 4", it'll be more than I had on the ground at one time all last winter. I'm rooting for ya! Regarding the above comment, as sad as that sounds wrt to last winter, I def want you to score on this one and what lies ahead. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: Good luck to you guys up north. Some of you have a waited a long time for a strong, wind driven snow to produce anything of significance. I think this is a start to good times for ya'll up there! 0z Euro...blasts the Upper MW/Northwoods...this should be a good way to re-build the #GreatLakesGlacier....Northwoods pounding on Zzz way... Was super pumped when I saw this. Then saw im only in a watch and only my county! Not sure what to think. No watches in UP too? Oh well, got 6.5" under a Sps last week so the weather gonna do what the weather gonna do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Colorful options up there 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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