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Dec 4th-6th Northland Snow


Madtown

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF has issued a winter storm warning for along and north of a Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Bemidji line. Kinda surprised to see them really not impressed with blizzard potential considering we could see 45mph gusts on Sunday. 

Watch is still in effect everywhere South. Swear to God if they give me another f&$*!+g advisory...

At least they are keeping hope alive for ya, and playing it correctly imo. GRR woulda long since thrown you under the WWA bus and not looked back. Hoping a Warning's in your future.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Niko18z NAM gives Macomb a brief SHSN around 10 am tomorrow:

image.png.bebde0c51a10ea5442f4acca086b2db8.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Then Sunday evening, the deepening SLP is going to pick up a moisture boost from both Michigan and Huron and convergence in the Straits will produce some serious pounding. Was a similar system in that region in Dec of '07 (analog?) at this same time period. I had the weekend free and decided to intercept. Wasn't disappointing. Had near bliz conditions and a quick 7" thump.

image.png.791606daa8e2b2909d06ccee35e40c2f.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Madtown said:

wonder how this plays out over here further east...avoid the dry slot?

Tonight's models coming in continue the theme of southward extension of the RN/SN line as this heads east. NMI looks to avoid much in the way of mix/RN/ZR and just go from front-end snow to dry-slot. Mid-Michigan looks to actually get some frozen, instead of just RN. Should see WWA's expand south in The Mitt, and APX may well need to up their snowfall maps from earlier today. All good signs. Drove a county west this evening to the Lakes & Rec region of Washtenaw. I was surprised to see so much pond ice. It had been marginally cold enough for snow, but I didn't think we had any real ice making wx. So far in the new month, we've had 2 perfectly avg days, and a +11 departure with Thursday's 56F.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This was their map from earlier today (which is still a nice hit). How nice that 4-8" system snow looks. Wish that was around here.

image.png.d903a5d4378ac5f556f68657593f640a.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Quote
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

Heavy snow potential on track.

Looking like some sort of lull in impacts by later Sunday
morning.

Confidence continues to increase toward significant blowing snow
impacts within the Red River Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
The pattern is a classic hybrid blizzard event. Majority of hi-
res guidance indicate a strong secondary cold front will
propagate through the region, bringing strong cold air advection.
Temperatures will rapidly drop, making it easier for freshly
fallen snow to blow around. RAP guidance indicates 925mb winds ~40
knots (and unidirectional through that layer), with due northerly
winds increasing the valley component. Winds will be strong
enough for at least near blizzard conditions, and blizzard
conditions if winds materialize as expected. Using NBM wind
probabilities and the Canadian blowing snow model, there is ~70%
chance for winds to be strong enough to lead to consistent
whiteout conditions (where enough fresh snow exists). Will keep
current headlines as is since they mainly deal with the falling
snow, and plan to transition headlines toward blowing snow
impacts once the falling snow comes to an end or is nearly done.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Interesting how some offices have their little niche tools.

GRR apparently has at least this one:

Quote
As for the late tonight and Monday gales, these will be
significant. Cannot rule out a brief gust or two to storm force.
Based on local in house wave model runs... waves will likely peak
around midday Monday in the 12-16 foot range between Muskegon and
South Haven. We are not expecting lakeshore flood issues given
the lower lake levels and the FVCOM showing levels remaining below
criteria. Levels will likely peak between 580 and 581 feet, when
advisory levels are between 582 and 583 feet. Given waves of this
height some moderate beach erosion is likely, but it probably will
not reach the toe of the dune line.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Tonight's models coming in continue the theme of southward extension of the RN/SN line as this heads east. NMI looks to avoid much in the way of mix/RN/ZR and just go from front-end snow to dry-slot. Mid-Michigan looks to actually get some frozen, instead of just RN. Should see WWA's expand south in The Mitt, and APX may well need to up their snowfall maps from earlier today. All good signs. Drove a county west this evening to the Lakes & Rec region of Washtenaw. I was surprised to see so much pond ice. It had been marginally cold enough for snow, but I didn't think we had any real ice making wx. So far in the new month, we've had 2 perfectly avg days, and a +11 departure with Thursday's 56F.

APX's overnight shift did just as I figured.

Quote
Will therefore expand the Winter Storm Warning southward into far
Northern/NE Lower Michigan. In coordination with DTX...will also
expand the Winter Wx Advisory southward into the rest of our
southern counties with the expectation of 2-4 inches of snow
accumulation combined with a light mix of slight/freezing rain as
well as gusty winds.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Stacsh

NAM saying you may see a burst of flakes briefly before it transitions. Close call for yby

image.png.51566773a86dc893530de6d1eebad5be.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The wraparound is here and I'm once again getting some pretty fat flakes. Flakes are blowing from the North which is a pretty good indicator that the front has passed. Expecting blizzard conditions this evening. 28*F, wind chill 16*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Wind has picked way up. There's no falling snow now, but visibility is lower than when there was falling snow. Surprised at FGF's decision to not issue a blizzard warning at the 3pm update. 26°F, wind chill 9°F. 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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For those that got - and are still getting - snow from this event, which global model seemed to perform the best. Seems the Euro had inflated totals or not??

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Cavalier-Pembina-

Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Western Walsh-

Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,

Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,

Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton,

Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks,

Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Fargo,

Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin

604 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of

  up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and

  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

 

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing

  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could

  bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 25

  below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little

  as 30 minutes.

 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must

travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,

stay with your vehicle.

 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at

dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling

5 1 1 in either state.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Got to love the weather coming out of KFAR Air Traffic tonight. ATC reporting FZFG with winds gusting to 52mph. No BLSN? Come on. FAR_weather proves that wrong.

Data at: 0057 UTC 06 Dec 2021

KFAR 060053Z 33031G45KT 1/4SM FZFG VV008 M07/M09 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 34045/0049 SNEMM PRESRR SLP119 P0000 T10721089 $
KFAR 060046Z 34033G44KT 1/4SM FZFG VV010 M07/M09 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 33044/0037 SNEMM PRESRR P0000 T10721089 $
KFAR 060039Z 33036G44KT 1/2SM FZFG BKN011 OVC019 M06/M08 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 33044/0037 SNEMM PRESRR P0000 T10611078 $

 

KGFK gets it correct with a professional weather observer and not an obstroller.

KGFK 060107Z 35023G39KT 1/2SM R35L/4500VP6000FT -SN BLSN VV010 M09/M11 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/0056 SFC VIS 3/4 P0001 T10941111 $
KGFK 060053Z 35030G44KT 1/2SM R35L/4000V6000FT -SN BLSN BKN009 OVC013 M09/M11 A2993 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0017 PRESRR SLP153 P0000 T10941111 $
KGFK 060048Z 35031G45KT 1/2SM R35L/3500VP6000FT -SN BLSN OVC013 M09/M12 A2993 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0017 P0000 $
KGFK 060040Z 35029G41KT 1/4SM R35L/3500V6000FT -SN BLSN OVC013 M09/M11 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0017 SFC VIS 1/2 P0000 T10941111 $
KGFK 052353Z 34031G44KT 1/4SM R35L/2800V4000FT -SN BLSN VV008 M09/M11 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 35044/2337 SLP132 4/007 P0000 60000 T10891111 11033 21089 53063 $

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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