Dec 4th-6th Northland Snow

[jaster220]

Then Sunday evening, the deepening SLP is going to pick up a moisture boost from both Michigan and Huron and convergence in the Straits will produce some serious pounding. Was a similar system in that region in Dec of '07 (analog?) at this same time period. I had the weekend free and decided to intercept. Wasn't disappointing. Had near bliz conditions and a quick 7" thump.

[Grizzcoat]

Latest HRRR has even the N.burbs of Twin Cities getting in on the action. ST PAUL STORM??  

 

[Madtown]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Latest HRRR has even the N.burbs of Twin Cities getting in on the action. ST PAUL STORM??  

 

wonder how this plays out over here further east...avoid the dry slot?

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Flakes are starting up here. 28°F.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Not exactly a textbook big dog, but I can live with this.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

wonder how this plays out over here further east...avoid the dry slot?

Tonight's models coming in continue the theme of southward extension of the RN/SN line as this heads east. NMI looks to avoid much in the way of mix/RN/ZR and just go from front-end snow to dry-slot. Mid-Michigan looks to actually get some frozen, instead of just RN. Should see WWA's expand south in The Mitt, and APX may well need to up their snowfall maps from earlier today. All good signs. Drove a county west this evening to the Lakes & Rec region of Washtenaw. I was surprised to see so much pond ice. It had been marginally cold enough for snow, but I didn't think we had any real ice making wx. So far in the new month, we've had 2 perfectly avg days, and a +11 departure with Thursday's 56F.

[jaster220]

This was their map from earlier today (which is still a nice hit). How nice that 4-8" system snow looks. Wish that was around here.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I'm not overly impressed with rates so far. It hasn't stopped snowing since it started, but radar looks not so great and the flakes outside are pixie dust. 

[Madtown]

here's the update.  now let's get it on the ground!

 

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Best stuff stays to the North again. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

Heavy snow potential on track.

Looking like some sort of lull in impacts by later Sunday
morning.

Confidence continues to increase toward significant blowing snow
impacts within the Red River Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
The pattern is a classic hybrid blizzard event. Majority of hi-
res guidance indicate a strong secondary cold front will
propagate through the region, bringing strong cold air advection.
Temperatures will rapidly drop, making it easier for freshly
fallen snow to blow around. RAP guidance indicates 925mb winds ~40
knots (and unidirectional through that layer), with due northerly
winds increasing the valley component. Winds will be strong
enough for at least near blizzard conditions, and blizzard
conditions if winds materialize as expected. Using NBM wind
probabilities and the Canadian blowing snow model, there is ~70%
chance for winds to be strong enough to lead to consistent
whiteout conditions (where enough fresh snow exists). Will keep
current headlines as is since they mainly deal with the falling
snow, and plan to transition headlines toward blowing snow
impacts once the falling snow comes to an end or is nearly done.

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

3.3" so far. Will likely pick up another inch with this next band coming through, then it's break time for a while. 28°F.

[jaster220]

Interesting how some offices have their little niche tools.

GRR apparently has at least this one:

Quote

As for the late tonight and Monday gales, these will be
significant. Cannot rule out a brief gust or two to storm force.
Based on local in house wave model runs... waves will likely peak
around midday Monday in the 12-16 foot range between Muskegon and
South Haven. We are not expecting lakeshore flood issues given
the lower lake levels and the FVCOM showing levels remaining below
criteria. Levels will likely peak between 580 and 581 feet, when
advisory levels are between 582 and 583 feet. Given waves of this
height some moderate beach erosion is likely, but it probably will
not reach the toe of the dune line.

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

5" on my balcony currently. Hoping to break 6 with the wraparound this afternoon. 29*F.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Tonight's models coming in continue the theme of southward extension of the RN/SN line as this heads east. NMI looks to avoid much in the way of mix/RN/ZR and just go from front-end snow to dry-slot. Mid-Michigan looks to actually get some frozen, instead of just RN. Should see WWA's expand south in The Mitt, and APX may well need to up their snowfall maps from earlier today. All good signs. Drove a county west this evening to the Lakes & Rec region of Washtenaw. I was surprised to see so much pond ice. It had been marginally cold enough for snow, but I didn't think we had any real ice making wx. So far in the new month, we've had 2 perfectly avg days, and a +11 departure with Thursday's 56F.

APX's overnight shift did just as I figured.

Quote

Will therefore expand the Winter Storm Warning southward into far
Northern/NE Lower Michigan. In coordination with DTX...will also
expand the Winter Wx Advisory southward into the rest of our
southern counties with the expectation of 2-4 inches of snow
accumulation combined with a light mix of slight/freezing rain as
well as gusty winds.

 

[Madtown]

doesn't  look good up here...2in down and dry air hauling towards me

 

[jaster220]

@Stacsh

NAM saying you may see a burst of flakes briefly before it transitions. Close call for yby

[Madtown]

Latest HRRR seems to have it nailed matching it up to the radar

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Flakes are flying again. Snow is beautiful when wind is light. Not to worry, wind will return with the fropa in an hour or two. 29°F.

[Up_north_MI]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

APX's overnight shift did just as I figured.

 

Warnings and the heaviest snow fall have shifted south in northern lower MI. Between this system snow and the lake effect coming tomorrow there should be some decent snow depths up here.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

The wraparound is here and I'm once again getting some pretty fat flakes. Flakes are blowing from the North which is a pretty good indicator that the front has passed. Expecting blizzard conditions this evening. 28*F, wind chill 16*F.

[Madtown]

4 to 4.5 down from where I measured....looks like the lake is gonna deliver the goods, but thats always up in the air till it happens

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Wind has picked way up. There's no falling snow now, but visibility is lower than when there was falling snow. Surprised at FGF's decision to not issue a blizzard warning at the 3pm update. 26°F, wind chill 9°F. 

[james1976]

I was in St Paul all weekend. Scored about an inch last night. This morning when I left it was very windy and 28°. Roads were a bit dicey. Just south of the TC there was no snow.

[Up_north_MI]

Still snowing but this was a really good start to winter snow play for northern lower 

[Grizzcoat]

For those that got - and are still getting - snow from this event, which global model seemed to perform the best. Seems the Euro had inflated totals or not??

[IMoveALot_Weather]

West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Cavalier-Pembina-

Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Western Walsh-

Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,

Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,

Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton,

Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks,

Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Fargo,

Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin

604 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of

  up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and

  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

 

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing

  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could

  bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 25

  below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little

  as 30 minutes.

 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must

travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,

stay with your vehicle.

 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at

dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling

5 1 1 in either state.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

It's pretty hectic out here. Textbook ground blizzard.

[Madtown]

^^Nice!

[Grizzcoat]

Got to love the weather coming out of KFAR Air Traffic tonight. ATC reporting FZFG with winds gusting to 52mph. No BLSN? Come on. FAR_weather proves that wrong.

Data at: 0057 UTC 06 Dec 2021

KFAR 060053Z 33031G45KT 1/4SM FZFG VV008 M07/M09 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 34045/0049 SNEMM PRESRR SLP119 P0000 T10721089 $
KFAR 060046Z 34033G44KT 1/4SM FZFG VV010 M07/M09 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 33044/0037 SNEMM PRESRR P0000 T10721089 $
KFAR 060039Z 33036G44KT 1/2SM FZFG BKN011 OVC019 M06/M08 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 33044/0037 SNEMM PRESRR P0000 T10611078 $

 

KGFK gets it correct with a professional weather observer and not an obstroller.

KGFK 060107Z 35023G39KT 1/2SM R35L/4500VP6000FT -SN BLSN VV010 M09/M11 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/0056 SFC VIS 3/4 P0001 T10941111 $
KGFK 060053Z 35030G44KT 1/2SM R35L/4000V6000FT -SN BLSN BKN009 OVC013 M09/M11 A2993 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0017 PRESRR SLP153 P0000 T10941111 $
KGFK 060048Z 35031G45KT 1/2SM R35L/3500VP6000FT -SN BLSN OVC013 M09/M12 A2993 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0017 P0000 $
KGFK 060040Z 35029G41KT 1/4SM R35L/3500V6000FT -SN BLSN OVC013 M09/M11 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0017 SFC VIS 1/2 P0000 T10941111 $
KGFK 052353Z 34031G44KT 1/4SM R35L/2800V4000FT -SN BLSN VV008 M09/M11 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 35044/2337 SLP132 4/007 P0000 60000 T10891111 11033 21089 53063 $

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Lol... So they are.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol... So they are.

I love the terminology they used too. Freezing fog AND windy... Like... wut

[jaster220]

Had to jaunt west to Marshall this pm. Was waiting at McD's drive-thru in Chelsea when a few flakes wafted down. Then about 30 miles east I briefly had snow blowing around on 94 in Calhoun cnty. Quite the surprise for sure.

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

Our current headlines are working out very nicely. Looking at the
MiDrive map nearly all of the major roads in the advisory area
have significantly reduced speeds at 630 pm. Conditions are most
impactful near Clare currently. The rain/snow line seems to be
near Route 10. Surface temperatures are at or below freezing from
near I-96 north (more so near and east of US-131 actually). Still
it looks like the area of showers /freezing rain/ snow will be out
out of the area by 11 pm based on the both radar trends and hi-res
model data. It would seems temperatures will not rise above 32
degrees over most of the advisory area until occluded front comes
through, which will be in the 10 pm to midnight time frame.

Based on the timing of when the precipitation exits the area, I
may extend the Winter Weather Advisory until midnight. I plan on
waiting until 9 pm or so to see what the trends look like then.
Seems good to give the forecast a chance to work.

Also I increased the risk for snow showers to near 100 percent
Monday near US-131. Given the amount of cold air coming in, the
DGZ being saturated and there is strong lift into the DGZ, not to
mention all hi-res models all show it, it will snow near US-131
Monday from midday into the overnight. There is a secondary cold
front that comes through mid morning that will kick of the better
snow showers.

@Stacsh@westMJim See above update. Sounding better for the LES tomorrow over your way.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

For those that got - and are still getting - snow from this event, which global model seemed to perform the best. Seems the Euro had inflated totals or not??

I saw a few flakes today, does that count, lol? Seriously tho, those earlier Euro runs showing sig snows across SMI (yeah the teasers Tom posted) were perhaps less than 5F off on the thermal profile from that happening. I think any later into the season and we'd at least had enough frozen for a headline. RN and 32-35F on the car thermo all afternoon with a nice stiff ESE wind flags were blowing straight-away. It was nice to see storminess even if just a near miss with the wintry side of this one.

I like this from APX. Some comic relief in their pm AFD

Quote

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

This morning`s surface analysis shows the lovely low pressure system
already bringing snow to the region as of midday. Actual low
pressure center is in SE North Dakota, on the cusp of a little more
potent of a niblet in the northern stream, in the broader troughing
across the northern CONUS east of the Rockies. Occluded front
extends SSE from the surface low to a triple point in western Iowa;
warm front extends more or less east-ish from there into Kentucky,
while a cold front extends back through southern Nebraska back
through Wyoming, with another low pressure in southern Montana. An
additional cold front has been analyzed to the north of the low,
across the southern Canadian prairies, associated with the thermal
gradient aloft and cold advection into the backside of the low. High
pressure remains across the eastern US attm...allowing for a tighter
pressure gradient across the Great Lakes.

 

[jaster220]

Some nice gusts on the front end of this in the old home region..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EST THU DEC 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PORTAGE            42.23N 85.55W
12/02/2021  M45 MPH          KALAMAZOO          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KAZO KZOO/BATTLE CREEK INTL
            AIRPORT.

1112 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE SPRINGFIELD       42.32N 85.23W
12/02/2021  M44 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KBTL BATTLE CREEK EXECUTIVE
            AIRPORT.

[jaster220]

Definitely over-performed with the late-trending south snowfall.

This was solidly in the WWA area:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
632 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HEAVY SNOW       BENZONIA                44.61N 86.10W
12/05/2021  M8.0 INCH        BENZIE             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

[Up_north_MI]

Up to 10” with system snow winding down, lake effect tomorrow should put storm totals in excess of a foot. 

[Andie]

Checked the temp at sunset.  

70*.  This is crazy!

High of 56* tomorrow though.  Front moving through.  

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Up to 10” with system snow winding down, lake effect tomorrow should put storm totals in excess of a foot. 

Very nice congrats! I always liked how the first snows up north were often significant events and I especially like how this trended south in the end enough to make much of The Mitt wintry. As much as I would've liked the Euro to be correct when it flashed another snow event down here, I know from experience a strong system this time of year has NMI written all over it. Now onto part-2..the LES saga

[Niko]

On 12/4/2021 at 7:31 PM, jaster220 said:

@Niko18z NAM gives Macomb a brief SHSN around 10 am tomorrow:

Yes, be on the lookout for tomorrow afternoon as that very cold airmass begins to roll on through. Highs on Tuesday might remain in the mid 20s. I think there is a chance for some light snow Tuesday nite into Wednesday, but nothing to get too excited about, but enough to put ya in the holiday spirit ma friend. Been hosting family all weekend and had to drive to the airport couple of times...ugh!

Enjoy the snowsqualls tomorrow!

[IMoveALot_Weather]

7 minutes ago, Andie said:

Checked the temp at sunset.  

70*.  This is crazy!

High of 56* tomorrow though.  Front moving through.  

My mom in Houston said she had the AC running today.

[jaster220]

43 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

My mom in Houston said she had the AC running today.

Bet you miss that

0z NAM brings snow dangerously close to mby tomorrow pm

[jaster220]

I rarely have need it seems to reach into the CAM models, as I just tend to watch the snow fall outside vs radar facing.

But the 3k does a nice job depicting the progression of LES tomorrow across The Mitt, including a nice little streamer right thru KDTW tomorrow evening.

Knowing the roll they're on, I wouldn't bet against it, lol.

[Niko]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I rarely have need it seems to reach into the CAM models, as I just tend to watch the snow fall outside vs radar facing.

But the 3k does a nice job depicting the progression of LES tomorrow across The Mitt, including a nice little streamer right thru KDTW tomorrow evening.

Knowing the roll they're on, I wouldn't bet against it, lol.

That is a hvy looking band......

[Beltrami Island]

2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

It's pretty hectic out here. Textbook ground blizzard.

Yup, looks like Fargo. Once the actual snowfall stops and the snow is just blowing across the ground, you start to wonder where in fact did this snow hitting your face first reach ground level? At times you would swear the answer feels like northern Saskatchewan.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Interstate 29 is closed from border to border. 12°F. Wind chill -12°F.

[Grizzcoat]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Some nice gusts on the front end of this in the old home region..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EST THU DEC 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PORTAGE            42.23N 85.55W
12/02/2021  M45 MPH          KALAMAZOO          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KAZO KZOO/BATTLE CREEK INTL
            AIRPORT.

1112 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE SPRINGFIELD       42.32N 85.23W
12/02/2021  M44 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KBTL BATTLE CREEK EXECUTIVE
            AIRPORT.

Meant to post this right after it happened, (the ATC tower shook), but I had something come up. 

54 mph Gust at 9pm.

[Tom]

Congrats to all of you who apparently got hit pretty good up north.  @FAR_Weather, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is your 1st Blitz since moving up there?  @Beltrami Island, how did you do?  @Up_north_MI, nice totals up in the northern part of lower MI.  Hope you guys get to keep adding to those totals throughout the month.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Congrats to all of you who apparently got hit pretty good up north.  @FAR_Weather, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is your 1st Blitz since moving up there?  @Beltrami Island, how did you do?  @Up_north_MI, nice totals up in the northern part of lower MI.  Hope you guys get to keep adding to those totals throughout the month.

Yup, first and likely only as I'm making a permanent move to North Carolina next month.

[Andie]

10 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

My mom in Houston said she had the AC running today.

Yeah.  I’ve been switching back and forth for weeks.  The weather can’t make up its mind down here.  
I have flowers looking great.