Jump to content
The Weather Forums

12/10 to 12/11 Upper Midwest Snow Storm


Recommended Posts

  • Tom pinned this topic

The Euro had a significant shift in today's run compared to 00z.  Much more SW to NE oriented than last night which was more ENE.  Much higher snow totals as well and further north overall.  Puts me from on the edge to out of the running, but I didn't have my hopes up high down here anyways.  Hopefully at least some members get a nice storm out of this.  Too bad the huge ridge and warmup behind the storm isn't going away on the models.  

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bud, it looks like there won't be much of anything along the low track, which will likely be through our area.  Forum members farther east and south may get thunderstorms and a solid soaker.

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I feel like this would be a great storm to build up the snow pack (if it holds) through the next 10 days.  @Madtown, this one could make up for the lower end of the scale you received from the current system traversing the GL's.

Any chance this warm up doesn't happen next week. How warm we talking? Trails open on the 15th! I would think a 12" storm would help get through 3 days or so. If that were to happen we'd have about 20" on the ground.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro is the classic "Nebraska does well, except for Omaha/Lincoln and southeast". But I would be happy with anything, Lincoln hasn't had a flake since Feb 21st. 

Yep same here. Looking back at my records, I did have a lt mix of snow/rain on April 19th, but no accumulation and I did have some flakes fall last month on the 12th, but no measurable snow since 2/21. Wonder what our record is.....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep same here. Looking back at my records, I did have a lt mix of snow/rain on April 19th, but no accumulation and I did have some flakes fall last month on the 12th, but no measurable snow since 2/21. Wonder what our record is.....

Ohhh I completely forgot I had a light dusting on April 19th. But actually measurable snow - Feb 21st. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 2.3" (so far)

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Des Moines AFD

 

 Attention then turns to a
strong PV anomaly for Friday and into Saturday. This is expected to
result in rather deep trough, and strong jet dynamics capable of
creating a robust surface cyclone. There is still a considerable
amount of difference among ensemble members, as well as difference
among long term deterministic model solutions for this system.
Earlier runs favored Saturday morning and afternoon for
precipitation across northern Iowa, but now is showing a trend to a
Friday afternoon-evening arrival. The 12z deterministic ECMWF
remains further south with the system and its strong deformation
zone axis, which could present accumulating snow as far south Hwy.
20. The GFS remains further northward, with the heavier
accumulations more in Minnesota. GEFS members are split between
northern and southern solutions. At this time, it appears the at
least far northern Iowa will be favorable for accumulating snow
potential. Central Iowa will be more uncertain. In the coming days,
will need to continue to monitor trends in the track of the system.
If this system becomes as strong as deterministic guidance is
indicating, dry slot fun could become an issue with the eventual
snowfall forecast as the event draws closer.

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the further N solution actually makes sense. ( esp the Euro)  Laying down the accumulating snowfall just S of the most recent storm, at least in MN.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS came about 2-3 counties further S and E in S.MN and IA compared to 12Z. Problem is - will the trend continue or flip flop on 12Z runs like it did this morning?

Likely going to be county or two short on this one. Cracking Up Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00z UK is south as well.  The 12z run was centered through Minneapolis.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

  • Like 2
  • scream 1

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is south as well... has the low tracking through far ne Missouri instead of over CR/IC.  I doubt the snow band will sag this far south, but it's nice to see a good storm.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will go N. Watch the 6Z  guidance  and following trends. The AO is sky high, No way KC gets snow, maybe? wrap around in DSM. I'd bet a considerable amount of $ right now the DSM doesn't get more than 2" out of this event.  KC? maybe a few tenths.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would not be pissed off if there were a significant North shift. Sorry guys.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...