bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Could be a fun start to the weekend for a wide area of SD and the southern half of MN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Ukie on board. Almost perfect alignment. What could go wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 I was planning on heading up to St Paul Friday afternoon but might have to head up in the morning if the snow moves in during the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Euro unchanged through 96 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 I feel like this would be a great storm to build up the snow pack (if it holds) through the next 10 days. @Madtown, this one could make up for the lower end of the scale you received from the current system traversing the GL's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Euro slower and deeper this run. Further north as a result. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 The Euro had a significant shift in today's run compared to 00z. Much more SW to NE oriented than last night which was more ENE. Much higher snow totals as well and further north overall. Puts me from on the edge to out of the running, but I didn't have my hopes up high down here anyways. Hopefully at least some members get a nice storm out of this. Too bad the huge ridge and warmup behind the storm isn't going away on the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Bud, it looks like there won't be much of anything along the low track, which will likely be through our area. Forum members farther east and south may get thunderstorms and a solid soaker. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Yeah kind of a bummer that wherever the snow falls it will be gone next week. Take what you can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 GEFS Mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: I feel like this would be a great storm to build up the snow pack (if it holds) through the next 10 days. @Madtown, this one could make up for the lower end of the scale you received from the current system traversing the GL's. Any chance this warm up doesn't happen next week. How warm we talking? Trails open on the 15th! I would think a 12" storm would help get through 3 days or so. If that were to happen we'd have about 20" on the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Euro is the classic "Nebraska does well, except for Omaha/Lincoln and southeast". But I would be happy with anything, Lincoln hasn't had a flake since Feb 21st. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Not in this one, but Euro has 59 and GFS has 57 for a High on Saturday. If I'm not getting snow, I'll take the warmer temps!. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Euro is the classic "Nebraska does well, except for Omaha/Lincoln and southeast". But I would be happy with anything, Lincoln hasn't had a flake since Feb 21st. Yep same here. Looking back at my records, I did have a lt mix of snow/rain on April 19th, but no accumulation and I did have some flakes fall last month on the 12th, but no measurable snow since 2/21. Wonder what our record is..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Yep same here. Looking back at my records, I did have a lt mix of snow/rain on April 19th, but no accumulation and I did have some flakes fall last month on the 12th, but no measurable snow since 2/21. Wonder what our record is..... Ohhh I completely forgot I had a light dusting on April 19th. But actually measurable snow - Feb 21st. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Des Moines AFD Attention then turns to a strong PV anomaly for Friday and into Saturday. This is expected to result in rather deep trough, and strong jet dynamics capable of creating a robust surface cyclone. There is still a considerable amount of difference among ensemble members, as well as difference among long term deterministic model solutions for this system. Earlier runs favored Saturday morning and afternoon for precipitation across northern Iowa, but now is showing a trend to a Friday afternoon-evening arrival. The 12z deterministic ECMWF remains further south with the system and its strong deformation zone axis, which could present accumulating snow as far south Hwy. 20. The GFS remains further northward, with the heavier accumulations more in Minnesota. GEFS members are split between northern and southern solutions. At this time, it appears the at least far northern Iowa will be favorable for accumulating snow potential. Central Iowa will be more uncertain. In the coming days, will need to continue to monitor trends in the track of the system. If this system becomes as strong as deterministic guidance is indicating, dry slot fun could become an issue with the eventual snowfall forecast as the event draws closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 GFS continues to be further north than the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 the further N solution actually makes sense. ( esp the Euro) Laying down the accumulating snowfall just S of the most recent storm, at least in MN. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 6, 2021 Report Share Posted December 6, 2021 Euro control- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Come on down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 gfs staying north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS came south from 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS is loaded. Hope these amounts continue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 That’s a decent jog south on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS came about 2-3 counties further S and E in S.MN and IA compared to 12Z. Problem is - will the trend continue or flip flop on 12Z runs like it did this morning? Likely going to be county or two short on this one. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 CMC also S from 12Z Crushes NW IA. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 CMC- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 The 00z UK is south as well. The 12z run was centered through Minneapolis. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Come on down Way to go ICON!!! LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GEFS as to be expected is also S and E. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Keep it coming with the south trend! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 The Euro is south as well... has the low tracking through far ne Missouri instead of over CR/IC. I doubt the snow band will sag this far south, but it's nice to see a good storm. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Love the south trend, but all the models did the same on 0z suite of runs last night. Hate to be in the dry slot if this thing is strong, which of course is right where I'd be on Friday night. Let's hope for us in Iowa/Omaha etc...the I80 corridor, that the 12z runs keep the south trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 0z Euro/EPS... 0z EPS Snow Mean...thats a definitive SE shift and keeps many of you out west in the game... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Kc could be in a good spot if trends keep up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Will go N. Watch the 6Z guidance and following trends. The AO is sky high, No way KC gets snow, maybe? wrap around in DSM. I'd bet a considerable amount of $ right now the DSM doesn't get more than 2" out of this event. KC? maybe a few tenths. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Yeah Judging by the latest GFS I would bet money Des Moines doesn’t even pick up a dusting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 NAM getting into range and is in the north camp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 ICON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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