bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 RDPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS coming in a smidge further south vs 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 ICON snow totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS a row or two of counties south, nothing drastic, but some shift 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 UK 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GEFS members and MEAN 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 I would not be pissed off if there were a significant North shift. Sorry guys. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 CMC with a secondary band on the backside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Euro came south just a tick and as the Canadian, now has that secondary defo band that sweeps through Eastern Iowa and other areas. Could at least get us white. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Close up of Iowa. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Euro gives me warning snows. @bud2380what time does it have it moving into northcentral IA? Thanks! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Of course, models show any defo tail snow moving through the CR/IC area will be after midnight so I can barely watch it. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 I still have a feeling this thing goes back north unless there's a strong high adding some blocking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 36 minutes ago, james1976 said: Euro gives me warning snows. @bud2380what time does it have it moving into northcentral IA? Thanks! based on the Euro, it shows early to mid afternoon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 50 minutes ago, james1976 said: Euro gives me warning snows. @bud2380what time does it have it moving into northcentral IA? Thanks! Looks to move in after noon. Here is the 3pm map. The noon map is dry across much of Iowa except along the MN border. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 ENS Mean and control are very similar. Top is mean, bottom is control 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 @james1976 you seem to be in a good spot. As usual. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: @james1976 you seem to be in a good spot. As usual. Looking pretty good although I might be up in St Paul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 come north? or is that being greedy? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Sitting in wloo, James being just west of me, looks like we are in a decent spot for now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 DVN with a solid write up Friday and Saturday...All eyes turn to the looming l/w trof energy pushing east acrs the Rockies and potential deepening LLVL low ejecting out somewhere acrs the upper Midwest. The latest run medium range models and ensembles continue to vary somewhat from each other and previous trends, but the 12z deterministic GFS continues it`s northern pan-handle hooker path SW-to-NE acrs bisecting the CWA, maybe a touch further southeast than previous runs and trending toward some GEFS ensembles. This path would place the local area largely in-between heavy rain and thunderstorms to the southeast acrs the lower MS RVR Valley, TN and OH RVR Valleys late Friday into early Sat, while a winter storm/heavy snow swath lays out acrs portions of NE/SD/northwest IA/MN and northern WI. We may be partially warm-sectored with showers and possible thunder, with temps in the 50s to near 60 acrs the southeast half of the DVN CWA Friday. The northwestern 1/4 of the CWA would eventually be subject to getting clipped with some lighter wrap-around or def zone wind- whipped snows later Friday night and Sat morning. All this while the 12z ECMWF is further southeast with the sfc low path along and just southeast of the DVN CWA with a deepening sfc low approaching 993 MB just east of Chicago by 06z Sat. The Euro`s path while still laying out the brunt of the heavy snow track northwest of the CWA, would still produce advisory level snows acrs at least the northwest third of the DVN CWA later FRiday night into early Sat, especially taking into account 15 to 25 MPH winds acrs those areas with the snow. Several ensembles favor the latest ECMWF path, and will have to watch phasing and timing trends in later runs over the next 24-36 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 18z Icon is well S and E. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Way south and east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 Looks the gfs is weakening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18z Icon is well S and E. Icon had the last storm wrong by about 200 miles up until a day out. That one isn't to even be looked at. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 ICON takes the typical golden path for eastern Iowa down by STL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS stays north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 I don't understand why people continue to post the ICON..... Sure it's another model to look at, but I've never seen a single forecast based off of the ICON or even referenced in a forecast. Not that I even pay any attention to it, but it seems like it's pretty much wrong most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 I guess I’m going to break my snowless streak and no measurable precip streak off of a “T-1” snowfall We won’t have to worry about snow holding down the temps going into next week’s heatwave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bud2380 Posted December 7, 2021 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I don't understand why people continue to post the ICON..... Sure it's another model to look at, but I've never seen a single forecast based off of the ICON or even referenced in a forecast. Not that I even pay any attention to it, but it seems like it's pretty much wrong most of the time. It's pretty simple really. This is a weather forum and it's a global model available on most of the major weather websites. So we post and discuss. I personally find it fun to look at every model and see if the other models end up moving towards a solution. Do I put much weight into the ICON? No, not at all, but I'll continue to post it as another data point. 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 ^^ Well said. Another data point is all. Granted , likely a bad data point but a data point nonetheless. 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 18Z Euro. A little more rain on the SE side cuts into totals about an inc h. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 ? Is how long will it stay on the ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, GDR said: ? Is how long will it stay on the ground Probably not very long anywhere it falls except for far north and east areas. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 NAM further S and E. Near warning levels snows for OMA and DSM peeps. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Huge shift south on the NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 A good 100 mile shift south. The SLP tracks through around Hannibal, MO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Jackpot for JAMES!!! 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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