GDR Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Wow big shifts with days to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Jim’s 72 hour rule too, so perfect timing for a shift. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Maybe the ICON was on to something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Wow, didn’t expect that NAM shift Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Jackpot for JAMES!!! That 12" blip is literally 10 miles north of me. Haha. Dang...too bad this is 3 days out yet! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Jim’s 72 hour rule too, so perfect timing for a shift. It's not Jim's rule, it's Barbs rule 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, MKEstorm said: Maybe the ICON was on to something Even a broken clock is right twice a day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: It's not Jim's rule, it's Barbs rule you're right, oops! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Looks like the low is a little north on the icon this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, GDR said: Looks like the low is a little north on the icon this run So it might be 100 miles south of all other guidance? JK....yeah we're still 3 days out so its a mess...but fun. Finally a storm to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 RDPS is in the north camp, has almost nothing in Waterloo. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 GFS nearly the same, just a hair of southward expansion. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 I thought RDPS was the Canadian? Is there another model I dont know about? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: I thought RDPS was the Canadian? Is there another model I dont know about? Lol I think it’s the same as RGEM right? Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Correct. Regional version of the GEM. Their version of the 12k NAM iiuc Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 NAM seems S. At least for The Mitt Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 CMC about the same as 12Z... so far the NAM is an outlier. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Seems like it is NAM/Euro vs the GFS/Canadian. (Canadian has rain for all of Michigan and up to Green Bay)! Then some wraparound for most of us. That's how I see it...Unless the Euro goes north and then the NAM is the outlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 uk met Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 The south shift has stopped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Euro going to be nudge N / W Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Euro is stronger, too. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 If this 6 hr can get a little more juice into the cold air- not going to complain- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 This thing is not going to be ashore until sometime mid day Thursday and is in two pieces--Expect more changes, but the trend is certainly agst the NAM. -- from Andrew- The first thing that is complicating this outlook is the fact that we're dealing with two separate pieces of energy in making this winter storm happen. I've highlighted these two pieces of energy in a 500-millibar relative vorticity image on the right, valid at noon on December 9th. That might all sound a bit complicated, but in a nutshell, the more colors you see, the more likely it is that there is a 'piece' of energy present that can develop into a storm system. Both models agree that these two pieces of energy will make landfall on the West Coast in the Pacific Northwest and in California, respectively. It's how they mingle and interact when they meet up in the Rockies that is throwing models for a loop. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Euro Kuchera- much colder 850 temps on the backside (compared to earlier) make this something to watch. The defo band is looking more and more impressive -- that -8C to -10C 850 temp I've learned over the years is optimal for excellent dendritic growth. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: If this 6 hr can get a little more juice into the cold air- not going to complain- That'll ruin the beautiful snow pack which is building up in the lake belts of the "Mitt"....no bueno! Meantime, here is the 0z Euro/EPS... 0z EPS...shift NW from previous 12z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Like as expected gfs takes a jog north some 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Hoping for a trend in this direction! Got barely clipped by the last storm as it skirted north of here. This one is threatening to skirt to the south of here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 NAM shifted way back north. The 00z run was an outlier. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM shifted way back north. The 00z run was an outlier. Yeah that’s a big difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 The iconic ICON has corrected to much further north 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Icon for the win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Prolly be a TC smash job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Rochester, MN seems to be in a great spot. Still time to wobble, but models are really honing in on southern, MN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Looks like Canadian/Nam/GFS all give me a good hit. Please please stop this warm up 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 The Euro has the same main snow band up in nw IA and se MN like other models, but the Euro also has a more robust tail that sweeps through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City early Saturday morning. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Very solid wrap around band hitting CR and other parts of E Iowa. I'd be thrilled with this as it's the best case scenario down here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Very solid wrap around band hitting CR and other parts of E Iowa. I'd be thrilled with this as it's the best case scenario down here. Thats in just 6 hours? Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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