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12/10 to 12/11 Upper Midwest Snow Storm


bud2380

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Correct. Regional version of the GEM. Their version of the 12k NAM iiuc

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM seems S. At least for The Mitt

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This thing is not going to be ashore until sometime mid day Thursday and is in two pieces--Expect more changes, but the trend is certainly agst the NAM. -- from Andrew-

The first thing that is complicating this outlook is the fact that we're dealing with two separate pieces of energy in making this winter storm happen. I've highlighted these two pieces of energy in a 500-millibar relative vorticity image on the right, valid at noon on December 9th. That might all sound a bit complicated, but in a nutshell, the more colors you see, the more likely it is that there is a 'piece' of energy present that can develop into a storm system.

 

Both models agree that these two pieces of energy will make landfall on the West Coast in the Pacific Northwest and in California, respectively. It's how they mingle and interact when they meet up in the Rockies that is throwing models for a loop. 

9-km%2BECMWF%2BGlobal%2BPressure%2B500%2BhPa%2BRel%2BVorticity%2B500%2BhPa%2BRel%2BVorticity%2B78.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro Kuchera- much colder 850 temps on the backside (compared to earlier) make this something to watch.  The defo band is looking more and more impressive -- that -8C to -10C 850 temp I've learned over the years is optimal for excellent dendritic growth.850th.us_mw.png

image.thumb.png.04ecad9b8e51f5847158813c18a9bbf5.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

If this 6 hr can get a little more juice into the cold air- not going to complain-

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

That'll ruin the beautiful snow pack which is building up in the lake belts of the "Mitt"....no bueno!

Meantime, here is the 0z Euro/EPS...

1.png

2.png

 

0z EPS...shift NW from previous 12z run...

3.png

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The Euro has the same main snow band up in nw IA and se MN like other models, but the Euro also has a more robust tail that sweeps through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City early Saturday morning.

image.thumb.png.1cc9384c021536e3d375a2832091fb09.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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