james1976 Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 The Euro is still pretty solid for me. Especially that second band. The Canadian was the first to show that yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 Obviously going to miss out on anything worthwhile around here, but it's great to be back to that time of year again! Now that I'm a bit older and have to shovel off the driveway by myself while my wife takes care of the kid inside, I can do without the constant 2-3" storms, so here is to non-stop 6-12" storms all year this year to make it worth it 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 8, 2021 Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 18Z NAM models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2021 DVN mention of the Euro's more ominous solution for those of us missing out on the main defo band. After all that, the new 12z ECMWF has come in with a bit of a southeast jog of it`s LLVL low pressures back from it`s previous run. It`s wetter as well, with QPF amounts ranging from a quarter inch in the south, to over 0.75 of an inch in the northwest by early Sat morning. The Euro evolves the change over snow def zone in a way that it produces at least advisory level snows acrs the northwestern third of the CWA Friday night, and the brisk winds producing some blowing and drifting snow into early Sat morning. So that while this Euro run/model is a more pessimistic outlier of the other model blends, it shows that the scenario is far from certain and more phasing and timing issues will need to be resolved over the next 24 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 18Z Euro. Back side must be more robust. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 18z wrap Around band even string this run but shifted NW leaving Iowa city and Cedar Rapids mostly out of the snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MudCutter Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Yeah If that 18z Euro is even moderately correct I will get shafted vigorously. I hope these dang warm temps leave soon too. We moved this summer to our new house for the wife's job. We came from Alabama where we got engaged but we couldn't stand the sweltering temperatures since we both grew up in Northern Minnesota. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 NAM went way north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 24 hours ago the NAM showed nothing for Minneapolis, now it shows over a foot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 GFS trying to get more robust on backside. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Cmc also trying on that backside weenie band. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Ukie weaker. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Maybe the secondary band is a real thing. Hope the Euro shows it on tonight's run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 The Euro is quite strong with the secondary defo zone, lays down a few to several inches from central to ne IA and into WI. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 0z Euro advertising a serious "thump" snow on the backside for IA/WI peeps in the defo zone... 0z EPS mean...1st snows of the season heading out your way... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 DMX with no mention of the secondary band. Only mention NW IA getting heavy snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Looks like the NWS has issued a winter storm watch for the counties south of me and extending down to the border. Discussion mentioned they are thinking a possible 8-10" somewhere in that area. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 6z GFS still way north with the heavy stuff. Euro seems like an outlier atm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 The RAP has joined the Euro with a decent secondary deformation/wrap around snow. Not as strong or impressive as the Euro, but something. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Let's go OMA and LNK! 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: The RAP has joined the Euro with a decent secondary deformation/wrap around snow. Not as strong or impressive as the Euro, but something. GFS coming around on defo band. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 12z GFS now has the secondary band thru IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Afternoon AFD should be interesting. Wonder if DMX will mention it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 wow...looks like a good hit up here....kinda wrote this one off, might make it through the warm up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 GFS latching onto the defo wrap around band, just further north than the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 The Canadian and UK do not show the wrap around feature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inferno Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 The type of winter storm. 12 inches of snow followed by 50s in less than a week.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The Canadian and UK do not show the wrap around feature. That sucks cuz the 0z run had it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: Let's go OMA and LNK! Yeahhh this ain't it haha. Most models have at least a dusting, a bit more if the euro verifies. Might be able to sneak in the first measurable at least. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Madtown said: wow...looks like a good hit up here....kinda wrote this one off, might make it through the warm up As long as the DPs stay in check, we should be good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Euro running... Only minor wobbles through 33 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Might have to go visit my parents. Latest Euro drops 9" in their backyard in northeast Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Almost 2" in CR this run and quite a bit more just barely north of there. If this would just dip 30-50 miles south, LOL. I don't see that happening and frankly, this is could easily be overdone. Not that I don't trust the Euro, but it would be nice if other models were as well defined with this defo band. We'll see if they play catchup. Regardless the trend with each run seems to be steady or a tick north, so I don't see this reversing south in my favor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 I'm not expecting more than a light whitening here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Yeah I still feel its overdone for my area too. I'm thinking maybe 1-2" but I'd love to be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 Offices upgraded to warnings and advisories now. Judging by the maps it looks like they are sticking with the north route and not buying the secondary band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2021 Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 (edited) DMX just updated again. I'm now in a WWA for 2-5". It will be gone next week but I'll take it for now! NWS: "expansions of the warning and advisory areas are possible" Edited December 9, 2021 by james1976 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 18z HRRR with the defo band 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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