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12/10 to 12/11 Upper Midwest Snow Storm


bud2380

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Obviously going to miss out on anything worthwhile around here, but it's great to be back to that time of year again! Now that I'm a bit older and have to shovel off the driveway by myself while my wife takes care of the kid inside, I can do without the constant 2-3" storms, so here is to non-stop 6-12" storms all year this year to make it worth it 😄

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DVN mention of the Euro's more ominous solution for those of us missing out on the main defo band.

 

After all that, the new 12z ECMWF has come in with a bit of a
southeast jog of it`s LLVL low pressures back from it`s previous
run. It`s wetter as well, with QPF amounts ranging from a quarter
inch in the south, to over 0.75 of an inch in the northwest by early
Sat morning. The Euro evolves the change over snow def zone in a way
that it produces at least advisory level snows acrs the northwestern
third of the CWA Friday night, and the brisk winds producing some
blowing and drifting snow into early Sat morning. So that while this
Euro run/model is a more pessimistic outlier of the other model
blends, it shows that the scenario is far from certain and more
phasing and timing issues will need to be resolved over the next 24
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Yeah If that 18z Euro is even moderately correct I will get shafted vigorously. I hope these dang warm temps leave soon too. We moved this summer to our new house for the wife's job. We came from Alabama where we got engaged but we couldn't stand the sweltering temperatures since we both grew up in Northern Minnesota.  

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The Euro is quite strong with the secondary defo zone, lays down a few to several inches from central to ne IA and into WI.

image.thumb.png.bcd2f61771b95fab92cf731e69d7fe00.png

image.thumb.png.fd0355e093d3da08f603614867e7f016.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

The RAP has joined the Euro with a decent secondary deformation/wrap around snow.  Not as strong or impressive as the Euro, but something.  

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GFS coming around on defo band.

image.thumb.png.3520f78cf2b263a98ed674fffb5e35a5.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Let's go OMA and LNK!

Yeahhh this ain't it haha. Most models have at least a dusting, a bit more if the euro verifies. Might be able to sneak in the first measurable at least. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Almost 2" in CR this run and quite a bit more just barely north of there.  If this would just dip 30-50 miles south, LOL.  I don't see that happening and frankly, this is could easily be overdone.  Not that I don't trust the Euro, but it would be nice if other models were as well defined with this defo band.  We'll see if they play catchup.  Regardless the trend with each run seems to be steady or a tick north, so I don't see this reversing south in my favor.  

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