Jump to content
The Weather Forums

12/10 to 12/11 Upper Midwest Snow Storm


bud2380
 Share

Recommended Posts

Euro is stronger, too.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thing is not going to be ashore until sometime mid day Thursday and is in two pieces--Expect more changes, but the trend is certainly agst the NAM. -- from Andrew-

The first thing that is complicating this outlook is the fact that we're dealing with two separate pieces of energy in making this winter storm happen. I've highlighted these two pieces of energy in a 500-millibar relative vorticity image on the right, valid at noon on December 9th. That might all sound a bit complicated, but in a nutshell, the more colors you see, the more likely it is that there is a 'piece' of energy present that can develop into a storm system.

 

Both models agree that these two pieces of energy will make landfall on the West Coast in the Pacific Northwest and in California, respectively. It's how they mingle and interact when they meet up in the Rockies that is throwing models for a loop. 

9-km%2BECMWF%2BGlobal%2BPressure%2B500%2BhPa%2BRel%2BVorticity%2B500%2BhPa%2BRel%2BVorticity%2B78.png

 

  • Like 5

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro Kuchera- much colder 850 temps on the backside (compared to earlier) make this something to watch.  The defo band is looking more and more impressive -- that -8C to -10C 850 temp I've learned over the years is optimal for excellent dendritic growth.850th.us_mw.png

image.thumb.png.04ecad9b8e51f5847158813c18a9bbf5.png

  • Like 4

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

If this 6 hr can get a little more juice into the cold air- not going to complain-

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

That'll ruin the beautiful snow pack which is building up in the lake belts of the "Mitt"....no bueno!

Meantime, here is the 0z Euro/EPS...

1.png

2.png

 

0z EPS...shift NW from previous 12z run...

3.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has the same main snow band up in nw IA and se MN like other models, but the Euro also has a more robust tail that sweeps through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City early Saturday morning.

image.thumb.png.1cc9384c021536e3d375a2832091fb09.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously going to miss out on anything worthwhile around here, but it's great to be back to that time of year again! Now that I'm a bit older and have to shovel off the driveway by myself while my wife takes care of the kid inside, I can do without the constant 2-3" storms, so here is to non-stop 6-12" storms all year this year to make it worth it 😄

  • Like 4
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

DVN mention of the Euro's more ominous solution for those of us missing out on the main defo band.

 

After all that, the new 12z ECMWF has come in with a bit of a
southeast jog of it`s LLVL low pressures back from it`s previous
run. It`s wetter as well, with QPF amounts ranging from a quarter
inch in the south, to over 0.75 of an inch in the northwest by early
Sat morning. The Euro evolves the change over snow def zone in a way
that it produces at least advisory level snows acrs the northwestern
third of the CWA Friday night, and the brisk winds producing some
blowing and drifting snow into early Sat morning. So that while this
Euro run/model is a more pessimistic outlier of the other model
blends, it shows that the scenario is far from certain and more
phasing and timing issues will need to be resolved over the next 24
  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah If that 18z Euro is even moderately correct I will get shafted vigorously. I hope these dang warm temps leave soon too. We moved this summer to our new house for the wife's job. We came from Alabama where we got engaged but we couldn't stand the sweltering temperatures since we both grew up in Northern Minnesota.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is quite strong with the secondary defo zone, lays down a few to several inches from central to ne IA and into WI.

image.thumb.png.bcd2f61771b95fab92cf731e69d7fe00.png

image.thumb.png.fd0355e093d3da08f603614867e7f016.png

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's go OMA and LNK!

  • Like 2

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

The RAP has joined the Euro with a decent secondary deformation/wrap around snow.  Not as strong or impressive as the Euro, but something.  

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GFS coming around on defo band.

image.thumb.png.3520f78cf2b263a98ed674fffb5e35a5.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...