Tom Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 Alrighty then...while the majority of this Sub will be on the warm side of things (record setting), there is a colder component to this system that'll bring the threat of some snow. Thunderstorms? Record warmth? Potential Bombogenesis? Let's discuss this multifaceted winter storm... 0z EURO...some more MSP snow??? Boy, the west is going to get friggin' clobbered with massive amounts of snow. This is a gift from mother nature to all the ski resorts right before the busy holiday season. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 High Wind Watches up for a large portion of the C USA. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 This is some forecast discussion from Omaha WFO. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 Both the GFS and Euro have temps in Lincoln around 60 at 6 am. The normal low temp around this time of year is 19. The front should tank temps into the 30s by midnight, but still very impressive. Regarding the wind, interesting graphic from OAX: 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 This thing is cutting so fast NW it has no chance to get any gulf moisture to the NW side of the low until it gets to far northern ontario to produce snow. Gonna be windy as heck for all though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 This is gonna be a powerhouse, no doubt. I'm in a High Wind Watch for gusts up to 70mph. I dont recall ever seeing that forecast for my area (outside of severe storm potential). Ill paste the Des Moines discussion below for anyone who wants to read. Daily and monthly record highs, extreme wind and severe storms all on the table. Wednesday is without a doubt the most significant weather day in the current forecast period with several facets to the system. Most Iowans will catch on to the warmth on Wednesday. Yes, it is going to be quite warm. Record breaking warmth, even. With highs in the 60s to low 70 forecast, daily temperature records will be easily broken at a number of locations and all-time December temperatures records are certainly within reach (details on that below in the Climate section). This warmth is remarkable in and of itself, but it is NOT the main story. Of primary concern on Wednesday and Wednesday night will be the extreme winds forecast across the area as a robust low pressure system rapidly deepens out of Colorado and across the central plains before lifting into the midwest. The pressure gradient across Iowa is very sharp with surface pressure rises of ~20mb/6hrs in the GFS on the back side of the low. GFS soundings across the state also consistently show 75 to 85+ kt gusts at the top of the mixed layer, around 825 mb. While these winds may not be fully realized, they are an indication of the strength of this system. Within ensemble guidance, the EC has 8 members with 6 hour maximum gusts of 70+ mph at DSM and the GFS has nearly 3/4 of its members with gusts over 60 mph. The High Wind Watch remains in place across the area and was expanded to include more of SE IA. Further expansion is certainly possible. The third element of the system is the conditional severe weather threat. This will key on whether there is enough thermodynamic contribution. Recent GFS runs indicate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE including 100-300 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE. Shear in the area is obviously extremely high at 50-70 knots, supportive of discrete storm mode. Low topped supercells are a risk with the discrete mode due to high shear, however there remain the question of whether the shear tear up the updraft before storms can get going and prevent storm form fully realizing the thermodynamics. If storms do form, storm motion will be extreme. SPC did issue a rare midday update the the Day 3 outlook, typically only updated once a day shortly after midnight. With this update a Marginal risk of severe storms was expanded across much of the CWA, highlighting the concern for damaging wind gusts. Given the low CAPE, high shear environment, the tornado potential is also concerning. CIPS analog severe guidance suggests wind threat with convection across area based on past events and also highlights similarity to 11/12/2005 event which produced several tornadoes in Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 13, 2021 Report Share Posted December 13, 2021 I was mentioning this to my friend as well. I cannot recall ever seeing 70mph gusts outside of a thunderstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 DTE and consumers might as well keep their crews around that were brought in this past weekend lol. hopefully we don't lose power this time around 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Holy cow!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Widespread power outages and tree damage all very possible with this system. I have a couple trees I need to get taken down. Hopefully they don't land on my house if they come down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 0Z Thursday at Omaha shows 65/12 T/Td with 11% humidity and 925pa level winds at 66knots (76 mph). 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 I've seen the higher rez models forecast what looks like a squall line before and when they do it usually suggests an impressive CF. Actually, I recall experiencing something similar over here before when the models where showing something similar. This storm means business and has insane dynamics. I'd love to be in the mountains and experiencing this when it rolls on through. If anyone captures any snow cams of the frontal passage that would be wild to see. Blitz conditions w/ zero viz no doubt. Meantime, how low will the baro go??? Higher rez models and forecasting quite a potent, tightly wrapped mid-lat cyclone. To bad this system is racing NE so dang fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Epic powerhouse system for any month. Only to dry slot much of C and E IA? You bet- it's the paltry winter of 21-22. You know when it's difficult to rain it's a bad snow season. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 The only event that I can remember that even comes close is April of 02 or 03'. Never forget watching transformers blow overnight and during the early AM. One can see a long way in a ATC cab. (speaking of which- it may have to be evacuated tomorrow-- 65mph to 70mph gusts and we are katie bar the door) Most of the north side of DSM was without power for several days that April nearly 20 years ago. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 I can't ever recall seeing gusts to 70mph in an actual forecast outside a landfalling cane' or blizzard in mtn passes etc... Maybe the shoulder season blizzards in WY and SD- certainly not E of the Missouri... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 DMX with a nice write up. Mentions potential widespread power outages, near impossible semi travel on I-35 and storm motion near 70kts and not being able to see rotation out past 60 miles from radar among other things. While the mixed layer wind is not quite high in this region, those aspects will likely lead to 60 mph or greater gusts. This has the potential to be the strongest non- convective wind event in Iowa in quite some time. Many recall November 10, 1998 which was a long duration high wind event over Iowa but did not have the max winds this storm may have. The wind will gradually subside after midnight as the system lifts away to the northeast but still it will still remain windy through that time. Despite the lack of leaves on the trees, there remains a lot of weak areas on trees from the 2020 Derecho that could be further damaged during this event. Widespread power outages could become a problem. Once the wind switches to westerly behind the dry line, expect semi traffic to have very difficult travel on north/south bound roads including Interstate 35. Still expecting thunderstorm potential immediately ahead of the dry line from late Wednesday afternoon and racing east during the evening. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are still expected which appears will be sufficient for updrafts to withstand the strong shear, much of which will be in the low levels. The obvious question is what will the tornado potential be with any storms? Past climatology given the upper and surface low locations would suggest a tornadic threat across the state. The 0-1 km shear values of 45 to 50 kts and 0-1 km SRH values around 400 m2/s2 are quite high for Iowa but are in the range of past low topped tornadic supercell events. LCL heights will be extremely low. Do expect the potential for tornadoes in this scenario should storms develop and survive the extreme shear. Mesocyclones very well could be shallow and difficult to detect beyond 60 nm from the radar in addition with storm motions near 70 kts. It would not take much of a cold pool to further enhance any local winds so with that, winds of 80 mph plus are not out of the question. 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Nearly all models under do wind. At least that has been my experience. This is somewhat alarming. 06Z GFS max wind gusts tomorrow. Good thing it's garbage day-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Cool nugget from MPX: the last time Minnesota was in a slight risk of severe weather was Dec 5, 2001. Hoping the squall line holds together as it blows through tomorrow. Not everyday there’s thunder and lightning with +6” of snow OTG. Also hope my frozen drains are going to thaw before the rains… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Certified nasty looking- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Certified nasty looking- You should record a video…I gotta feeling this will be a fascinating experience for y’all out west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Red is 70mph. calling for 69mph downtown DSM. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 These expected winds are just bananas. I'm sure it's happened, but I don't ever remember something like this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: These expected winds are just bananas. I'm sure it's happened, but I don't ever remember something like this. Same here. I'm even checking out my emergency generator just in case of a prolonged power failure and in the past I've only done this is for an expected ice storm. 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Definitely not something you ever see in mid-December. Not at this latitude anyway. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Severe storm potential on top of non convective 70mph wind is pretty wild in December in Iowa. Kind of excited but nervous at same time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, james1976 said: Severe storm potential on top of non convective 70mph wind is pretty wild in December in Iowa. Kind of excited but nervous at same time. I'am planning for loss of power. Perhaps a long loss. 50 hours after the Derecho of Aug 2020 is the longest I've seen. The only good thing about this happening in DEC- is it will cool down to near normal and food can be stored outside- or in coolers with minimal ice. Been there done in previous ice storms. I do feel for those that have no heat. My furnace hasn't run one time this season and personally (family) trying to go the entire season without heating with wood. Even today - with temps in the 50's- it's cold and damp -- DEC sun angle doesn't heat much up even in the 50's --- it feels awesome next to the wood stove. This could be an issue for those that have not the means to heat with no central HVAC fan. One of the reasons I enjoy burning wood-- sets you apart when the going gets tough--- BUT NO-- THE MOTHER IN LAW stays put!!!! 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Probably going to be a lot of Christmas lights and decorations going airborne tomorrow lol Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Probably going to be a lot of Christmas lights and decorations going airborne tomorrow lol Yep, Rudolph and Santa goin' air-borne. Bye! Bye! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, james1976 said: Severe storm potential on top of non convective 70mph wind is pretty wild in December in Iowa. Kind of excited but nervous at same time. If Chicago and Detroit can hit 64 mph last weekend, you guys should well exceed that I would think. In Marshall, we had that crazy 70-80 mph windstorm with sunshine and blue skies a few years back. Seriously big trees were taken down. Lucky nobody's cars were under them as they drove along. It was spring. Just try convincing Peeps there's a life endangering wx event on an otherwise beautiful spring day. Wasn't happening.. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Still some timing differences with tomorrow's set up and where the storms form, etc. 12Z 3km NAM is perhaps the most ominous for Omaha. Shows storms moving through between 5-6p and keeps things semi discrete. Also has a ton of low level CAPE. In fact almost half of the CAPE is found in the low levels which is huge for possible tornado production. Normally 100+ is decent on a day with large CAPE in the spring. Forecast soundings show 239 j/kg tomorrow over Omaha if this verifies. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, jaster220 said: If Chicago and Detroit can hit 64 mph last weekend, you guys should well exceed that I would think. In Marshall, we had that crazy 70-80 mph windstorm with sunshine and blue skies a few years back. Seriously big trees were taken down. Lucky nobody's cars were under them as they drove along. It was spring. Just try convincing Peeps there's a life endangering wx event on an otherwise beautiful spring day. Wasn't happening.. Yeah I have a couple trees I need to get taken down. Hopefully they don't land on my house tomorrow lol. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 I'm planning on "chasing" tomorrow. Going to be a very hard chase with storm motions, but with all the extreme weather this system is going to produce tomorrow, I don't want to be sitting in my basement working all day and missing out on what mother nature is going to do. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 12z CAMs really bringing the sauce. This is seriously trending towards what could be a widespread damaging event. We probably won’t see the highest sustained winds here like those in IA and NE, but straight line winds with this squall line look legit. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Update from Omaha. Storm motions at 60-90 mph! 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Pushing near 100kts of Bulk Shear- leads to this 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 43 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Pushing near 100kts of Bulk Shear- leads to this Whats the ideal amount of shear to produce tornadoes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Tough to say-- but anything over 40kts says super cells are likely. Other dynamics play a big part- but the shear from 0' to 18000' AGL is huge tomorrow. Whether the twist can work its way down in a fast moving system ( and changing dynamics) is the key. Anything that happens will be fast - and likely go unnoticed unless it stays on the levels of radar - to pick it up. As mentioned per AM AFD by DMX. One would think not long track- but a brief strong tornado is not out of the cards. Not many of these events in climo past- so who really knows. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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