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12/14-12/16 Upper MW Powerhouse System


Tom
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Alrighty then...while the majority of this Sub will be on the warm side of things (record setting), there is a colder component to this system that'll bring the threat of some snow.  Thunderstorms?  Record warmth?  Potential Bombogenesis?  Let's discuss this multifaceted winter storm...

0z EURO...some more MSP snow???  Boy, the west is going to get friggin' clobbered with massive amounts of snow.  This is a gift from mother nature to all the ski resorts right before the busy holiday season.

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Both the GFS and Euro have temps in Lincoln around 60 at 6 am. The normal low temp around this time of year is 19. The front should tank temps into the 30s by midnight, but still very impressive. Regarding the wind, interesting graphic from OAX:

Tab5FileL.thumb.png.106c4222cf56605b76435cdaaf96f55a.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This is gonna be a powerhouse, no doubt. I'm in a High Wind Watch for gusts up to 70mph. I dont recall ever seeing that forecast for my area (outside of severe storm potential). Ill paste the Des Moines discussion below for anyone who wants to read. Daily and monthly record highs, extreme wind and severe storms all on the table.

Wednesday is without a doubt the most significant weather day in the
current forecast period with several facets to the system. Most
Iowans will catch on to the warmth on Wednesday. Yes, it is going
to be quite warm. Record breaking warmth, even. With highs in the
60s to low 70 forecast, daily temperature records will be easily
broken at a number of locations and all-time December temperatures
records are certainly within reach (details on that below in the
Climate section). This warmth is remarkable in and of itself, but
it is NOT the main story. Of primary concern on Wednesday and
Wednesday night will be the extreme winds forecast across the
area as a robust low pressure system rapidly deepens out of
Colorado and across the central plains before lifting into the
midwest. The pressure gradient across Iowa is very sharp with
surface pressure rises of ~20mb/6hrs in the GFS on the back side
of the low. GFS soundings across the state also consistently show
75 to 85+ kt gusts at the top of the mixed layer, around 825 mb.
While these winds may not be fully realized, they are an
indication of the strength of this system. Within ensemble
guidance, the EC has 8 members with 6 hour maximum gusts of 70+
mph at DSM and the GFS has nearly 3/4 of its members with gusts
over 60 mph. The High Wind Watch remains in place across the area
and was expanded to include more of SE IA. Further expansion is
certainly possible.

The third element of the system is the conditional severe weather
threat. This will key on whether there is enough thermodynamic
contribution. Recent GFS runs indicate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
including 100-300 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE. Shear in the area is obviously
extremely high at 50-70 knots, supportive of discrete storm mode.
Low topped supercells are a risk with the discrete mode due to
high shear, however there remain the question of whether the shear
tear up the updraft before storms can get going and prevent storm
form fully realizing the thermodynamics. If storms do form, storm
motion will be extreme. SPC did issue a rare midday update the
the Day 3 outlook, typically only updated once a day shortly after
midnight. With this update a Marginal risk of severe storms was
expanded across much of the CWA, highlighting the concern for
damaging wind gusts. Given the low CAPE, high shear environment,
the tornado potential is also concerning. CIPS analog severe
guidance suggests wind threat with convection across area based on
past events and also highlights similarity to 11/12/2005 event
which produced several tornadoes in Iowa.
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I've seen the higher rez models forecast what looks like a squall line before and when they do it usually suggests an impressive CF.  Actually, I recall experiencing something similar over here before when the models where showing something similar.  This storm means business and has insane dynamics.  I'd love to be in the mountains and experiencing this when it rolls on through.  If anyone captures any snow cams of the frontal passage that would be wild to see.  Blitz conditions w/ zero viz no doubt.

 

1.gif

 

Meantime, how low will the baro go???  Higher rez models and forecasting quite a potent, tightly wrapped mid-lat cyclone.  To bad this system is racing NE so dang fast.

 

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Epic powerhouse system for any month. Only to dry slot much of C and E IA? You bet- it's the paltry winter of 21-22. You know when it's difficult to rain it's a bad snow season.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The only event that I can remember that even comes close is April of 02 or 03'. Never forget watching transformers blow overnight and during the early AM. One can see a long way in a ATC cab. (speaking of which- it may have to be evacuated tomorrow-- 65mph to 70mph gusts and we are katie bar the door)  Most of the north side of  DSM was without power for several days that April nearly 20 years ago.image.png.d14e6ce0b4ca9d411b29420cddb915bd.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I can't ever recall seeing gusts to 70mph in an actual forecast outside a landfalling cane' or blizzard in mtn passes etc... Maybe the shoulder season blizzards in WY and SD- certainly not E of the Missouri...

image.thumb.png.b371ccdb66f0e0d7ef17a1b41ce14f74.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX with a nice write up. Mentions potential widespread power outages, near impossible semi travel on I-35 and storm motion near 70kts and not being able to see rotation out past 60 miles from radar among other things.

 While the mixed layer wind is not quite
high in this region, those aspects will likely lead to 60 mph or
greater gusts. This has the potential to be the strongest non-
convective wind event in Iowa in quite some time. Many recall
November 10, 1998 which was a long duration high wind event over
Iowa but did not have the max winds this storm may have. The wind
will gradually subside after midnight as the system lifts away to
the northeast but still it will still remain windy through that
time. Despite the lack of leaves on the trees, there remains a lot
of weak areas on trees from the 2020 Derecho that could be
further damaged during this event. Widespread power outages could
become a problem. Once the wind switches to westerly behind the
dry line, expect semi traffic to have very difficult travel on
north/south bound roads including Interstate 35.

Still expecting thunderstorm potential immediately ahead of the
dry line from late Wednesday afternoon and racing east during the
evening. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are still expected which
appears will be sufficient for updrafts to withstand the strong
shear, much of which will be in the low levels. The obvious
question is what will the tornado potential be with any storms?
Past climatology given the upper and surface low locations would
suggest a tornadic threat across the state. The 0-1 km shear
values of 45 to 50 kts and 0-1 km SRH values around 400 m2/s2 are
quite high for Iowa but are in the range of past low topped
tornadic supercell events. LCL heights will be extremely low. Do
expect the potential for tornadoes in this scenario should storms
develop and survive the extreme shear. Mesocyclones very well
could be shallow and difficult to detect beyond 60 nm from the
radar in addition with storm motions near 70 kts. It would not
take much of a cold pool to further enhance any local winds so
with that, winds of 80 mph plus are not out of the question.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nearly all models under do wind. At least that has been my experience. This is somewhat alarming. 06Z GFS max wind gusts tomorrow. Good thing it's garbage day-- 🤣

image.png.0d4f6beeabf9281210a4b2db25008e19.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Cool nugget from MPX: the last time Minnesota was in a slight risk of severe weather was Dec 5, 2001. Hoping the squall line holds together as it blows through tomorrow. Not everyday there’s thunder and lightning with +6” of snow OTG. Also hope my frozen drains are going to thaw before the rains…

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5 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

These expected winds are just bananas. I'm sure it's happened, but I don't ever remember something like this. 

Same here. I'm even checking out my emergency generator just in case of a prolonged power failure and in the past I've only done this is for an expected ice storm.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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12 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Severe storm potential on top of non convective 70mph wind is pretty wild in December in Iowa. Kind of excited but nervous at same time. 

I'am planning for loss of power. Perhaps a long loss. 50 hours after the Derecho of Aug 2020 is the longest I've seen. The only good thing about this happening in DEC- is it will cool down to near normal and food can be stored outside- or in coolers with minimal ice. Been there done in previous ice storms.

I do feel for those that have no heat. My furnace hasn't run one time this season and personally (family) trying to go the entire season without heating with wood. Even today - with temps in  the 50's- it's cold and damp -- DEC sun angle doesn't heat much up even in the 50's --- it feels awesome next to the wood stove. This could be an issue for those that have not the means to heat with no central HVAC fan. One of the reasons I enjoy burning wood-- sets you apart when the going gets tough--- BUT NO-- THE  MOTHER IN LAW stays put!!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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19 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Probably going to be a lot of Christmas lights and decorations going airborne tomorrow lol

 

Yep, Rudolph and Santa goin' air-borne. Bye! Bye!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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41 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Severe storm potential on top of non convective 70mph wind is pretty wild in December in Iowa. Kind of excited but nervous at same time. 

If Chicago and Detroit can hit 64 mph last weekend, you guys should well exceed that I would think. In Marshall, we had that crazy 70-80 mph windstorm with sunshine and blue skies a few years back. Seriously big trees were taken down. Lucky nobody's cars were under them as they drove along. It was spring. Just try convincing Peeps there's a life endangering wx event on an otherwise beautiful spring day. Wasn't happening..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Still some timing differences with tomorrow's set up and where the storms form, etc. 12Z 3km NAM is perhaps the most ominous for Omaha. Shows storms moving through between 5-6p and keeps things semi discrete. Also has a ton of low level CAPE. In fact almost half of the CAPE is found in the low levels which is huge for possible tornado production. Normally 100+ is decent on a day with large CAPE in the spring. Forecast soundings show 239 j/kg tomorrow over Omaha if this verifies.

refcmp.us_c.png

refcmp.us_c (1).png

nam4km_2021121412_035_41.21--96.18.png

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29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If Chicago and Detroit can hit 64 mph last weekend, you guys should well exceed that I would think. In Marshall, we had that crazy 70-80 mph windstorm with sunshine and blue skies a few years back. Seriously big trees were taken down. Lucky nobody's cars were under them as they drove along. It was spring. Just try convincing Peeps there's a life endangering wx event on an otherwise beautiful spring day. Wasn't happening..

Yeah I have a couple trees I need to get taken down. Hopefully they don't land on my house tomorrow lol.

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Tough to say-- but anything over 40kts says super cells are likely. Other dynamics play a big part- but the shear from 0' to 18000' AGL is huge tomorrow. Whether the twist can work its way down in a fast moving system ( and changing dynamics)  is the key. Anything that happens will be fast - and likely go unnoticed unless it stays on the levels of radar - to pick it up. As mentioned per AM AFD by DMX.  One would think not long track- but  a brief strong tornado is not out of the cards. Not many of these events in climo past- so who really knows.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I don't think my flight back to Fargo is happening tomorrow night. May be able to enjoy this in Minneapolis, though!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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STP on the 18Z 3km NAM up over 2 now. Clicked on the map for a sounding and this is what it shows there:

1km shear: 49 kts(!)

Bulk shear: 96 kts(!)

SBCAPE: 1044

3CAPE: 255(!)

Insane numbers. It's going to be a matter of whether there is too much shear and everything gets sheared apart right away before it can sustain any updrafts. I'm probably going to head to Onawa, IA along I29 and go from there.

stp.us_c (1).png

nam4km_2021121418_029_41.94--95.95.png

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OMAHAsnowFAn-

IF you can- head up to N.IA- S.MN- Mason City area looks prime from what Ive seen. JIm Flowers almost expects EF2's in that area. At night- alone? - would not be fun if things get going.

 

stp.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Whoa, DMX AFD was intense. It was extremely long, but highlighting possible historic wind event and the tornado risk. Could be even higher gusts if things all come together just right. It's going to be a crazy day! I'm live for extreme weather but I always hope no one perishes from it.

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I'am not a summer severe weather guy (hence I'am gone for 7-8 months of the year on here) --- but it's not that I don't follow it- it's my job. POINT being- tomorrow has the potential to be memorable. (for all the wrong reasons)- but it is what is.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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