Minny_Weather Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 I don't think my flight back to Fargo is happening tomorrow night. May be able to enjoy this in Minneapolis, though! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Looks windy 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Omaha Public Schools just cancelled in school learning tomorrow and is going to have a remote day!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 STP on the 18Z 3km NAM up over 2 now. Clicked on the map for a sounding and this is what it shows there: 1km shear: 49 kts(!) Bulk shear: 96 kts(!) SBCAPE: 1044 3CAPE: 255(!) Insane numbers. It's going to be a matter of whether there is too much shear and everything gets sheared apart right away before it can sustain any updrafts. I'm probably going to head to Onawa, IA along I29 and go from there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 OMAHAsnowFAn- IF you can- head up to N.IA- S.MN- Mason City area looks prime from what Ive seen. JIm Flowers almost expects EF2's in that area. At night- alone? - would not be fun if things get going. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Whoa, DMX AFD was intense. It was extremely long, but highlighting possible historic wind event and the tornado risk. Could be even higher gusts if things all come together just right. It's going to be a crazy day! I'm live for extreme weather but I always hope no one perishes from it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 ^^Tornado threat is getting close to mby 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Schools are getting out early tomorrow all around. Buckle up and stay safe everyone!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 I'am not a summer severe weather guy (hence I'am gone for 7-8 months of the year on here) --- but it's not that I don't follow it- it's my job. POINT being- tomorrow has the potential to be memorable. (for all the wrong reasons)- but it is what is. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 MPX going with gusts to 60mph which I’ve never seen before except in t-storms. Power outages expected and the tornado risk in E/C MN and W WI actually looks pretty decent…in December..at night. This is gaining traction on the news here. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 55 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: OMAHAsnowFAn- IF you can- head up to N.IA- S.MN- Mason City area looks prime from what Ive seen. JIm Flowers almost expects EF2's in that area. At night- alone? - would not be fun if things get going. yeah my biggest concern is not being able to get out of the way of something on the ground moving at 80 mph!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: I'am not a summer severe weather guy (hence I'am gone for 7-8 months of the year on here) --- but it's not that I don't follow it- it's my job. POINT being- tomorrow has the potential to be memorable. (for all the wrong reasons)- but it is what is. If nothing else, I'm hoping to document whatever I can, whether that be storms or just the extreme wind. I have an anemometer that I can put onto the roof of my car with heavy duty magnets so I'm hoping to measure some crazy wind gusts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Well this is rather ominous: A tornado has never been reported in the month of December in Minnesota, but we can not totally rule one out tomorrow evening as low-level helicity and wind shear are both in off the charts territory. With the amount of background "spin" already present in the atmosphere, any storm that develops enough to generate lightning will likely begin rotating. The chance for a tornado will be highly conditional on whether any surface-based instability can develop, which would likely mean all of the snowpack will first need to be melted. As mentioned earlier, the chances for this occurring look most likely across far-southern Minnesota, but given the anomalous nature of this event, we`ll have to keep an eye on anything with lightning Wednesday evening. Storms will be moving extremely fast, likely 60-70 mph, so there will likely be little time to react and take shelter once warnings are issued. Please have a way to monitor the weather, and prepare for damaging wind Wednesday evening. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 i kind of like this look for us in eastern nebraska 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Pulled some images off of the 0Z 3km NAM. Continues to be the most ominous I would say both for Omaha and into Iowa as well. Starting to show much stronger Helicity tracks as well🌪🌪 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 SO, what is this new wx phenom? 3rd Severe Season!! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Wtf. Tornadoes in MN in mid December. Possibly places with a snowpack in the ground. Yep nothing to see here. Totally normal... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 LPS has cancelled as well. Can’t say I’ve ever heard of school closing due to high winds lol 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 1st of the winter season for Lk Mich: Storm Warning URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 721 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-150930- /O.UPG.KMKX.SR.A.0001.211216T0000Z-211217T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.SR.W.0001.211216T0000Z-211217T0000Z/ Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 721 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and waves building to 12 to 17 ft. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Lakeshore Flood Watch. Hmm, new color on the hazards map that I don't personally recall seeing b4 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Holy sh*t we have a moderate risk in Iowa and Minnesota…. ON DECEMBER 15TH! 10% tornado 45% significant wind 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 From the SPC disco- The overall intensity of the wind fields with this system are very impressive. Consensus among the guidance is that 500 mb wind speeds will top 130 kt, with 700 mb and 850 mb flow topping 95 kt and 70 kt respectively. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Alright James! Let's get ready to rumble!!! It could be super wild! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 hr period this evening where my point and click has gusts 59mph or greater peaking at 71mph at 8pm--- yikes. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 I will keep updating this (HRRR wind gusts at 8pm) throughout the day as the event draws closer. Without knowing this is isobaric in nature - one would think it's a derecho being forecasted. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 This morning discussion from Des Moines and La Crosse are pretty insane. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Anyone ever hear of a "sting jet"? First time here. Pretty amazing write up and not even to the Severe convective part. From the DMX AFD- The pressure gradient will not be a big factor through the early afternoon hours. A few wind gusts over 50 mph will be possible during the early afternoon before the stronger mixed layer winds and pressure gradient arrives for mid to late afternoon ahead of the dry line and expected thunderstorm development. Expect some wind gusts to 60 mph ahead of the storms. A brief reprieve from the higher gusts is possible in the wake of the thunderstorms but the strongest of the non- convective wind gusts is expected to arrive this evening. An extremely intense pressure gradient of over 100 microbars/km will arrive over central and northern Iowa with 6hr pressure height rises of 24 millibars or greater. Differential cold advection will increase low level lapse rates to in excess of 9C/km and several other indicators of strong subsidence following the dry line including strong mid-level drying and subsidence, will all further promote strong mixing and momentum transfer of mixed layer winds. Concerns continue to increase regarding the potential for a sting jet driving extremely strong winds to the ground this evening. Mixed layer winds in the 70 to 80 kt range are extreme certainly and if that does indeed mix down, widespread damage and power outages is possible. The wind will gradually diminish after 06z from southwest to northeast as the low pressure departs. Sting jet info-- https://skybrary.aero/articles/sting-jet 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Gotta love the largest storms on earth - mid latitude cyclones. High wind warnings stretch 1700+ miles from AZ/Mexico border to Michigan/Ontario border. Tropical cyclones get there own measurement in ACE (Accumulated cyclonic energy)--- why not mid latitude ones? This baby would score high that is for sure. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 hours ago, Bellona said: Alright James! Let's get ready to rumble!!! It could be super wild! Yeah this set up is pretty incredible. Definitely excited and nervous at the same time. Walked out this morning and it feels like spring. Ground is damp and its 55° and breezy. That might also be the daily record high already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 isobars just W of OMA -- never seen so tightly packed outside a cane'. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 I’m really concerned for the No plains. It’s strange enough here at 69* at 6am and high humidity. 62%. So we’re pumping heat and humidity your way. This is jaw dropping to see on the maps. Stay alert. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Very happy to be on the oitside looking in today. Looks like the greatest storm threat is Minneapolis and south as of now. Will see some very heavy winds here, however. Forecast disco is quite ominous out of MSP. Good luck everyone that is in the way of this thing later. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Everything seems to have its eyes set on me. And it will be dark when the worst of it hits. Last night I took a few smaller items into the garage. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Even if you didn't follow the weather at all, something about this sunrise that is a bad harbinger. 61F over 57F dew at 7am in mid Dec doesn't bode well either. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 15, 2021 Report Share Posted December 15, 2021 Agree Grizz. Very eerie out there this morning for sure. Nice to not have to wear a coat though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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