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12/14-12/16 Upper MW Powerhouse System


Tom

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42F and dense fog right now here. Sounds of water rushing down the gutters as the snowpack gets obliterated. MPX talking possible gusts near 80mph with the storms later. There is an eerie calm this morning with no wind at all. Hard to fathom what’s about to take place in a few hours. 

I’m going to be clearing the drains in my yard and the street from ice and snow to make sure I don’t run into flooding issues. Fortunately with storm motion of 70mph excessive rainfall shouldn’t be too much of an issue. 

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Special Weather Statement…YIKES!:

Description

...TODAY'S VOLATILE DAY OF WEATHER HAS NOT BEEN SEEN BEFORE IN MID DECEMBER... An unprecedented outbreak of severe thunderstorms for this time of year is likely early this evening. The line of thunderstorms will race northeast across southern and eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin between 5 PM and 9 PM. Widespread wind damage from gusts possibly exceeding 80 mph will accompany the storms. Tornadoes are also possible. The highest risk of severe thunderstorms is southeast of a line from Redwood Falls to Rush City. Storms will be moving between 60 and 70 mph! Conditions will deteriorate very quickly. Unless preparations are made ahead of time, it may be hard to take adequate shelter when one notices storms beginning to approach. These are expected to be high end damaging wind producers, so pay close attention to warnings issued later today.
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1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

42F and dense fog right now here. Sounds of water rushing down the gutters as the snowpack gets obliterated. MPX talking possible gusts near 80mph with the storms later. There is an eerie calm this morning with no wind at all. Hard to fathom what’s about to take place in a few hours. 

I’m going to be clearing the drains in my yard and the street from ice and snow to make sure I don’t run into flooding issues. Fortunately with storm motion of 70mph excessive rainfall shouldn’t be too much of an issue. 

Reading all your comments feels like I’m about to see a “thriller” of a movie.    It’s about to be “showtime” via Mother Nature.  The dynamics we have seen from these storms since Oct have been fascinating.  Buckle up and stay safe.  That goes to all of you out west.  

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It's like a warm spring morning.  It's humid, everything is wet, and the air has that moist odor.  The strongest wind will likely remain west of Cedar Rapids, but 60 mph is possible as the front passes through between 7-8pm.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Verbiage from SPC update a bit ago. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html?fbclid=IwAR0R8QHmQeszqTcsrDgJEKB1vJo1FK4xGl-mZduLaACqYZSpLBdYeQwRSLs

   Though the elevated mixed layer plume will act to cap the moistening
   boundary layer, strong forcing for ascent with the surging dryline
   and within the left-exit region of the intense mid-upper jet streak
   will quickly remove convective inhibition in a narrow zone along the
   dryline by mid afternoon (20-21z), when convective initiation is
   likely across east central/southeast NE and northeast KS.  Extremely
   strong wind profiles will accompany the ejecting midlevel trough,
   with speeds approaching 125 kt at 500 mb and 70-80 kt not far above
   the ground.  Effective bulk shear will also be quite strong at 70-80
   kt.  The strong linear forcing for ascent and cap will support a
   narrow line of storms, though the very strong deep-layer shear
   vectors/long hodographs oriented across the boundary, and increasing
   low-level buoyancy by mid-late afternoon, should allow some
   supercell structures within the band of storms.  Downward momentum
   transport by the convection will result in the potential for
   widespread wind damage with peak gusts potentially in the 75-100 mph
   range, and embedded circulations will be capable of producing a few
   fast-moving tornadoes (one or two of which could be strong) with
   both right-moving supercells and embedded QLCS mesovortices.
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58 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Models are showing two distinct rounds of high wind gusts.  You can see the HRRR here at 9pm how one band has just moved through the CR corridor and another on it's heels.

 

sfcgust_mph.us_state_ia.png

That's what it's been showing here as well. Strong winds right before the storms and of course during the storms, then a relative period of "calm" before the winds switch to the west and increase again. Last night gusts were showing 85 mph in the second batch.

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Given things getting pulled back a bit and Omaha being more in the crosshairs, I plan on heading out to the Missouri Valley/Onawa area along I-29 so I can be still be close enough to storms as they head through the metro area and head back home if there is any damage, etc.

I plan on trying to stay with the storm until maybe shortly after dark also depending on storm speed, visibility, etc. After I leave those storms I might stay up in northwest Iowa to experience the secondary rush of extreme winds that were being forecast up to 85 mph last night.

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Met from KCRG was just on local radio. They never speak live with mets but this is how wild the potential is. He said this could be close to derecho and the tornado risk has increased. Straight line winds as well. And this will be after dark. "When you get home from work and school stay home"

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Met from KCRG was just on local radio. They never speak live with mets but this is how wild the potential is. He said this could be close to derecho and the tornado risk has increased. Straight line winds as well. And this will be after dark. "When you get home from work and school stay home"

What was always lacking with this setup was CAPE. Heck the SPC didn't even have a marginal risk on it's first 3 day outlook.

But the CAPE keeps increasing and most models all show 1000+.

I'm getting more and more concerned with the Omaha area. The HRRR is slowing things down allowing storms to form and mature well west of here now and move into a very volatile environment. 

stp.us_c.png

hrrr_2021121516_006_41.29--95.96.png

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HRRR looks pretty ominous. Line of 85-90 mph gusts moving across SE Nebraska around 6 pm. Not sure how people have the ability to look at max wind gusts though because I can only get the conditions every hour on WxBell. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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..and I posted a couple weeks ago how we needed some really historic wx systems like the "11's Storm" of Nov 1911.

Well, here we are folks! Be safe out there.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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51 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

First that I've seen of true hurricane force gusts goes to Trindad,CO--- gusting 76mph.

image.thumb.png.c1249b4794d7f4147f77a616782397fa.png

This is exactly what I was worried about seeing when I saw that line on the high rez nam being modeled...can you imagine what the scene would look like in the mountains?   

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20 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Garden City - dust bowl.

KGCK 151745Z 25038G64KT 1/4SM BLDU VV011 16/03 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 24073/1733 PRESRR T01560028

Thinking we are seeing a Haboob with this advisory?!

Dust Storm Warning

DUST STORM WARNING
NWS GOODLAND KS
1152 AM CST WED DEC 15 2021

KSC039-065-137-NEC145-151945-
/O.NEW.KGLD.DS.W.0013.211215T1752Z-211215T1945Z/
1152 AM CST WED DEC 15 2021
Decatur County KS-Graham County KS-Norton County KS-Red Willow County
NE-

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Dust Storm Warning for...
Norton County in northwestern Kansas...
Decatur County in northwestern Kansas...
Graham County in northwestern Kansas...
Red Willow County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 145 PM CST.

* At 1152 AM CST, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 6
miles north of Ludell to 7 miles northwest of Dresden to 5 miles
north of Quinter, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Less than a quarter mile visibility with damaging wind in
excess of 70 mph.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.
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2 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Wow… 72° in Des Moines..on Dec 15

up to 50F here as the winds begin to pick up a bit.  Visibility improving drastically. 

Windows are open. Free Heat. No wood burned. It does seem like an April day if the sun wasnt so low in the sky.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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SVR warning already up from Holdrege to north central KS. I'm not the biggest severe wx fan, but it's hard not to be interested with how crazy this event is, especially for December. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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