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12/14-12/16 Upper MW Powerhouse System


Tom
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55 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

OMAHAsnowFAn-

IF you can- head up to N.IA- S.MN- Mason City area looks prime from what Ive seen. JIm Flowers almost expects EF2's in that area. At night- alone? - would not be fun if things get going.

 

stp.us_nc.png

yeah my biggest concern is not being able to get out of the way of something on the ground moving at 80 mph!!

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41 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I'am not a summer severe weather guy (hence I'am gone for 7-8 months of the year on here) --- but it's not that I don't follow it- it's my job. POINT being- tomorrow has the potential to be memorable. (for all the wrong reasons)- but it is what is.

 

If nothing else, I'm hoping to document whatever I can, whether that be storms or just the extreme wind. I have an anemometer that I can put onto the roof of my car with heavy duty magnets so I'm hoping to measure some crazy wind gusts.

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Well this is rather ominous: 

 

tornado has never been reported in the month of December in Minnesota, but we can not totally rule one out tomorrow evening as low-level helicity and wind shear are both in off the charts territory. With the amount of background "spin" already present in the atmosphere, any storm that develops enough to generate lightning will likely begin rotating. The chance for a tornado will be highly conditional on whether any surface-based instability can develop, which would likely mean all of the snowpack will first need to be melted. As mentioned earlier, the chances for this occurring look most likely across far-southern Minnesota, but given the anomalous nature of this event, we`ll have to keep an eye on anything with lightning Wednesday evening. Storms will be moving extremely fast, likely 60-70 mph, so there will likely be little time to react and take shelter once warnings are issued. Please have a way to monitor the weather, and prepare for damaging wind Wednesday evening.

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🤔 SO, what is this new wx phenom? 3rd Severe Season!! 😁

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1st of the winter season for Lk Mich:

Storm Warning


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
721 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-150930-
/O.UPG.KMKX.SR.A.0001.211216T0000Z-211217T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SR.W.0001.211216T0000Z-211217T0000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
721 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50
  kt and waves building to 12 to 17 ft.
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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Lakeshore Flood Watch. Hmm, new color on the hazards map that I don't personally recall seeing b4

image.png.ebe0edb9476c686f566c578db49fdb95.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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From the SPC disco-

  The overall intensity of the wind fields with this system are very
   impressive. Consensus among the guidance is that 500 mb wind speeds
   will top 130 kt, with 700 mb and 850 mb flow topping 95 kt and 70 kt
   respectively.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I will keep updating this (HRRR wind gusts at 8pm) throughout the day as the event draws closer. Without knowing this is isobaric in nature - one would think it's a derecho being forecasted.

image.png.6947b160a1569f69c379c69d2ad5609e.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Anyone ever hear of a "sting jet"? First time here. Pretty amazing write up and not even to the Severe convective part.  From the DMX AFD-

The pressure gradient will not be a
big factor through the early afternoon hours. A few wind gusts
over 50 mph will be possible during the early afternoon before the
stronger mixed layer winds and pressure gradient arrives for mid
to late afternoon ahead of the dry line and expected thunderstorm
development. Expect some wind gusts to 60 mph ahead of the storms.
A brief reprieve from the higher gusts is possible in the wake of
the thunderstorms but the strongest of the non- convective wind
gusts is expected to arrive this evening. An extremely intense
pressure gradient of over 100 microbars/km will arrive over
central and northern Iowa with 6hr pressure height rises of 24
millibars or greater. Differential cold advection will increase
low level lapse rates to in excess of 9C/km and several other
indicators of strong subsidence following the dry line including
strong mid-level drying and subsidence, will all further promote
strong mixing and momentum transfer of mixed layer winds. Concerns
continue to increase regarding the potential for a sting jet
driving extremely strong winds to the ground this evening. Mixed
layer winds in the 70 to 80 kt range are extreme certainly and if
that does indeed mix down, widespread damage and power outages is
possible. The wind will gradually diminish after 06z from
southwest to northeast as the low pressure departs.

 

Sting jet info-- https://skybrary.aero/articles/sting-jet

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Gotta love the largest storms on earth - mid latitude cyclones.  High wind warnings stretch 1700+ miles from AZ/Mexico border to Michigan/Ontario border. Tropical cyclones get there own measurement in ACE (Accumulated cyclonic energy)--- why not mid latitude ones? This baby would score high that is for sure.

image.png.edd33740fede2e44667441eb9baee0e1.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Bellona said:

Alright James! Let's get ready to rumble!!! It could be super wild!

Yeah this set up is pretty incredible. Definitely excited and nervous at the same time.

Walked out this morning and it feels like spring. Ground is damp and its 55° and breezy. That might also be the daily record high already. 

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 I’m really concerned for the No plains. 
It’s strange enough here at 69* at 6am and high humidity. 62%.  So we’re pumping heat and humidity your way.  
 

This is jaw dropping to see on the maps.  Stay alert.   
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Even if you didn't follow the weather at all, something about this sunrise that is a bad harbinger. 61F over 57F dew at 7am in mid Dec doesn't bode well either.

PXL_20211215_131533054~2.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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42F and dense fog right now here. Sounds of water rushing down the gutters as the snowpack gets obliterated. MPX talking possible gusts near 80mph with the storms later. There is an eerie calm this morning with no wind at all. Hard to fathom what’s about to take place in a few hours. 

I’m going to be clearing the drains in my yard and the street from ice and snow to make sure I don’t run into flooding issues. Fortunately with storm motion of 70mph excessive rainfall shouldn’t be too much of an issue. 

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At this rate, I'm doubting I'll even make it into Minneapolis.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Special Weather Statement…YIKES!:

Description

...TODAY'S VOLATILE DAY OF WEATHER HAS NOT BEEN SEEN BEFORE IN MID DECEMBER... An unprecedented outbreak of severe thunderstorms for this time of year is likely early this evening. The line of thunderstorms will race northeast across southern and eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin between 5 PM and 9 PM. Widespread wind damage from gusts possibly exceeding 80 mph will accompany the storms. Tornadoes are also possible. The highest risk of severe thunderstorms is southeast of a line from Redwood Falls to Rush City. Storms will be moving between 60 and 70 mph! Conditions will deteriorate very quickly. Unless preparations are made ahead of time, it may be hard to take adequate shelter when one notices storms beginning to approach. These are expected to be high end damaging wind producers, so pay close attention to warnings issued later today.
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My flight from Charlotte gets into Minneapolis at around 8. Nope, not happening.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

42F and dense fog right now here. Sounds of water rushing down the gutters as the snowpack gets obliterated. MPX talking possible gusts near 80mph with the storms later. There is an eerie calm this morning with no wind at all. Hard to fathom what’s about to take place in a few hours. 

I’m going to be clearing the drains in my yard and the street from ice and snow to make sure I don’t run into flooding issues. Fortunately with storm motion of 70mph excessive rainfall shouldn’t be too much of an issue. 

Reading all your comments feels like I’m about to see a “thriller” of a movie.    It’s about to be “showtime” via Mother Nature.  The dynamics we have seen from these storms since Oct have been fascinating.  Buckle up and stay safe.  That goes to all of you out west.  

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Just now, Grizzcoat said:

WOW-

image.thumb.png.9c1ff374d21945b61c768ab38e3a130b.png

Right when my flight lands!

Yeah, I'm spending the night in Charlotte lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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It's like a warm spring morning.  It's humid, everything is wet, and the air has that moist odor.  The strongest wind will likely remain west of Cedar Rapids, but 60 mph is possible as the front passes through between 7-8pm.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Verbiage from SPC update a bit ago. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html?fbclid=IwAR0R8QHmQeszqTcsrDgJEKB1vJo1FK4xGl-mZduLaACqYZSpLBdYeQwRSLs

   Though the elevated mixed layer plume will act to cap the moistening
   boundary layer, strong forcing for ascent with the surging dryline
   and within the left-exit region of the intense mid-upper jet streak
   will quickly remove convective inhibition in a narrow zone along the
   dryline by mid afternoon (20-21z), when convective initiation is
   likely across east central/southeast NE and northeast KS.  Extremely
   strong wind profiles will accompany the ejecting midlevel trough,
   with speeds approaching 125 kt at 500 mb and 70-80 kt not far above
   the ground.  Effective bulk shear will also be quite strong at 70-80
   kt.  The strong linear forcing for ascent and cap will support a
   narrow line of storms, though the very strong deep-layer shear
   vectors/long hodographs oriented across the boundary, and increasing
   low-level buoyancy by mid-late afternoon, should allow some
   supercell structures within the band of storms.  Downward momentum
   transport by the convection will result in the potential for
   widespread wind damage with peak gusts potentially in the 75-100 mph
   range, and embedded circulations will be capable of producing a few
   fast-moving tornadoes (one or two of which could be strong) with
   both right-moving supercells and embedded QLCS mesovortices.
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58 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Models are showing two distinct rounds of high wind gusts.  You can see the HRRR here at 9pm how one band has just moved through the CR corridor and another on it's heels.

 

sfcgust_mph.us_state_ia.png

That's what it's been showing here as well. Strong winds right before the storms and of course during the storms, then a relative period of "calm" before the winds switch to the west and increase again. Last night gusts were showing 85 mph in the second batch.

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