October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Extremely brisk out there today and pretty chilly.  Lake Michigan looks mean and nasty...8-12 Foot waves are in the forecast.  Never made it out of the 50's again for the 2nd straight day, except ORD which hit 60F.  Probably tack on one more day tomorrow.

 

12z Euro again with its shenanigons in the Day 8-10 range....both GFS/JMA are also very similar in trying to bring another trough through the region next weekend after a couple mild days mid week.  12z Euro Ensembles continue to develop a deep trough south of the Aleutian islands in the extended.

[james1976]

18z GFS not showing much a of a cool down for next weekend and then getting warmer again by day 10. However, after that there is a lot of troughiness. Hopefully that continues. Never know with long range models.

[james1976]

I have a question. So Joaquin is gonna miss the coast. So where is all the rain across the east coming from? Is the hurricane pushing a frontal system inland?

[Geos]

I have a question. So Joaquin is gonna miss the coast. So where is all the rain across the east coming from? Is the hurricane pushing a frontal system inland?

 

A stalled stationary front is out ahead of Joaquin. The front acts as a magnet to the tropical moisture, which in turn piles up along the front. So the moisture is getting advected off of the hurricane.

 

This is a perfect satellite loop showing that.

 

[james1976]

That is a cool satellite loop! That hurricane is responsible for holding up the weather pattern pretty much across the entire country. Amazing.

[Geos]

The cirrus today were pretty cool along with the sunset. Was able to capture some of that.

 

 

 

 

 

Winds will just not let up! Still gusting around 25 mph at midnight.

[Tom]

Seems like for the 2nd week in a row, the Euro missed the trough near the Lakes in the 7-10 day period.  Too far east again???   Let's see if it corrects west.  GFS had it all along but going back and forth now.  Has been the them over the last 2 cold seasons.  

 

Anybody turn the Furnace on last night or put an extra log on the fireplace???  Indoor temp got down to 62F...haven't caved in yet...maybe tonight.

[Tom]

CFSv2 trending cooler for November???  Same thing is happening again as we approach the next Target month....last 3 runs for November showing it...lets see where it ends up towards mid month.  Heading towards the SST analogs.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201511.gif

[Tom]

It's interesting to see that the CFS for December looking similar to Dec 2013.  A massive snow pack should be in place hugging NW NAMER by the start of December and a tell-tale sign that the map below might be an indication of where the coldest temps may end up laying out.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15120100_0300.gif

 

Remember the overall temp departures in 2013-14???  I'll post that map below.  I'm not comparing the overall winter's temps from 2013-14, but the way all the cold that year built up in NW NAMER and spilled south unlike last year when it was much farther east.  Look at what the CFS has been showing consistently in NW NAMER...

 

Mid Dec...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15121100_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15121100_0300.gif

 

Late December on Christmas Eve...

.

=http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15122412_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15122412_0300.gif

 

  

 

I think the model may be picking up at less ridging hugging the NW NAMER coast line which will spill colder air farther back west into the Plains this season.  JAMSTEC model has showed this last run for the Dec-Feb period....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

Interesting clues to where we may be heading as Winter inches closer and the first flakes of Snow just around the corner!

 

[Tom]

+PNA, -AO, near neutral NAO signal a cooler pattern ahead after this coming weeks warmth...gotta say, 70's are going to feel amazing after this week's windy/cool temps.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Geos]

Seems like for the 2nd week in a row, the Euro missed the trough near the Lakes in the 7-10 day period.  Too far east again???   Let's see if it corrects west.  GFS had it all along but going back and forth now.  Has been the them over the last 2 cold seasons.  

 

Anybody turn the Furnace on last night or put an extra log on the fireplace???  Indoor temp got down to 62F...haven't caved in yet...maybe tonight.

 

Will have to cave later today I think. If there sun came out it might be enough to warm the indoors up, but I don't think this overcast is breaking up this weekend.

 

I have 60s in my 7 day, but nothing above 68° yet.

[james1976]

Dang that 12z GFS is troughy!
How is Euro and GEM looking?

[Tom]

I just realized Tropical Tidbits has a Canadian Climate Model on their site which is pretty neat.  I've never used it before so might as well post on what it's showing for this coming Winter.

 

Here is the 500mb pattern for November...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_z500a_namer_1.png

Precip...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_apcpna_month_namer_1.png

 

December 500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_z500a_namer_2.png

 

Precip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_apcpna_month_namer_2.png

 

 

January 500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_z500a_namer_3.png

 

February 500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_z500a_namer_4.png

 

March 500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_z500a_namer_5.png

 

 

For the most part, this looks like another cold/stormy Winter for the lower 48 in general.  A lot of consistency showing up with various Climate models which is giving us a lot of clues into the future.  February seems to be looking like the coldest month overall.  I'm 50/50 on how December will end up.  I've always thought there would be a pull back, but if ENSO 1.2 region continues to cool, moreso than last year, it may not pull back as much.

 

Here is a neat map illustrating the monthly SST's near the Equatorial Pacific...notice the  cooling in the ENSO 1.2 Region since May 2015...

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/enso/sst_map_12.gif

 

 

Click on link below to see moving illustration...

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/enso/sst_map_12.gif

[Tom]

Dang that 12z GFS is troughy!

How is Euro and GEM looking?

12z Euro showing slight cooling for next Fri/Sat, then pumps in a ridge Day 10 out ahead of a monster Canadian SLP (similar to the GFS's strength)...

 

.

.http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2015100312/CAN_PRMSL_msl_240.gif

[Geos]

Looks like a zonal type pattern in November if I am looking at that map correctly. Definitely a trough type pattern east of the Rockies during the winter. Ridge in the West, but not as prominent as the last two winters. Big Aleutian Low on those maps!

 

Some showers approaching IL from Indiana and Michigan. It's amazing how much weather is being backed up by Joaquin and the east coast stationary front.

[Tom]

Looks like a zonal type pattern in November if I am looking at that map correctly. Definitely a trough type pattern east of the Rockies during the winter. Ridge in the West, but not as prominent as the last two winters. Big Aleutian Low on those maps!

 

Some showers approaching IL from Indiana and Michigan. It's amazing how much weather is being backed up by Joaquin and the east coast stationary front.

Here is the temp anomaly...it looks like its trying to do the same thing as the CFS model for November.  Notice the extreme below normal anomalies near AK/Yukon/Western Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

[Tom]

Only sitting at 53F thus far...might not get out of the low 50's for the remainder of the day.  By all means, this is the chilliest day of the Autumn season and it def "feels" colder with the wind chills in the 40's.

[Geos]

It hasn't budged past 52° here. Solid clouds all day.

[james1976]

Nice maps Tom!
You guys are only low 50s? Dang! Prolly from all the clouds. Sunny and 64 here. Its been same weather/temps here the past 4 days or so. Tomorrow we will be getting the clouds that you guys have currently, Like Geos said, it's amazing how much weather is being backed up by that hurricane.

[Niko]

Very chilly day here today and raw also. Highs only remained in the 40s. 48 to be exact. Currently at 46.1F.

[Tom]

Very chilly day here today and raw also. Highs only remained in the 40s. 48 to be exact. Currently at 46.1F.

We just dipped down into the upper 40's with a raw sustained wind with rain showers.  Feels like November out there.

[Tom]

Nice maps Tom!

You guys are only low 50s? Dang! Prolly from all the clouds. Sunny and 64 here. Its been same weather/temps here the past 4 days or so. Tomorrow we will be getting the clouds that you guys have currently, Like Geos said, it's amazing how much weather is being backed up by that hurricane.

Don't forget about the massive blocking 1038mb High Pressure in SE Canada.  This is really the road block in the mid latitudes that is steering all the weather.

 

The rain showers effecting areas adjacent to the lake seem to have some Lake influence...radar looks like some banding forming

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20151003.2234.gif

[Tom]

Siberia Snow Cover expanded quite a bit since yesterday...

 

Oct 2nd...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Oct 3rd...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

 

12z GFS next 10 days...Boom!  Now that is impressive if this should happen.  This would be hundreds of thousands of square miles by mid October.  Plenty more the CFS projected it to be back in July/Aug when I posted those maps over a month ago.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100312/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

[Geos]

Sitting at 49° with occasional light mist falling.

Only a 4° spread in temps today; high of 52°.

[james1976]

You are correct Tom. Now that you mention it, I recall DMX talking about a big H in SE Canada. Either way, it is impressive how a H or L can alter that much weather.

[Tom]

Looks like typical Yo-Yo Autumn type weather this week around the Lakes for this week.  After a very chilly weekend, temps bounce back up a bit above avg, head a bit below avg next weekend, then bounce back up early the following week as a pretty nice ridge moves in due to a powerful storm system in central Canada Day 8.

 

CFSv2 seeing the warming in the 6-10 day period...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015100406/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_namer_2.png

 

After that, the pattern begins to change as the Alaskan Ridge builds back in for Weeks 2-4...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015100406/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_namer_3.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015100406/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_namer_4.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015100406/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_namer_5.png

 

The close of October might get pretty cold.  Might see some flakes of Snow fly late this month.  Towards the end of the month, I'm noticing the models picking up on the Pacific jet hitting Cali which would be very beneficial for that part of the country.

[Tom]

Climatologically speaking, the Northern Hemisphere is currently above average with snow cover.  Here is October 3rd's Climo to date avg snow cover below...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_clim50/276.png

 

 

Here is current...above avg in North America and Eurasia...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_ims/2015276.png

[gosaints]

This week is looking like more grade A fall weather.  Cold anomalies went bye bye

[Maxim]

This week is looking like more grade A fall weather.  Cold anomalies went bye bye

Let's keep this going through the entire winter. I'm more than ready for a 1997-1998 redux.

[Tom]

A healthy looking ridge pops next Monday giving us a good shot at an 80F+ temp this month...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015100500/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

 

Hopefully the Cubbies will be playing the Cardinals in the 1st round of the Playoffs and Game 3 would be at Wrigley Field.  Summer time warmth is going to attract tons of crowds near Wrigley.

 

After that, the pattern begins to transition into a cooler one.  AO is forecast to tank and the Alaskan ridge builds back in.  An above normal snow cover in the regions up north should allow some significant cold fronts to head our way towards mid month.  GFS/EURO Ensembles starting to come together Day 8-10.

[Tom]

The cut-off SLP that is spinning in So Cal this morning has dropped some early season snows in the mountains just north of Los Angeles in the Angeles National Forest...

 

 

This system may be caught up in the transitioning new LRC pattern.  Won't know till sometime in late November if this is part of the new 2015-16 cycle.

[james1976]

Yeah I see the GFS is really showing some big cold shots long range. Might be overdone though.

[Maxim]

Can someone tell me what the GFS has been smoking lately? Has ridiculously warm 850 mb temps of up to 23C for a good chunk of the midwest next Monday. Then after that shows 0C 850 mb temps 48 hours later. Yeah, okay.... lol.

[gosaints]

Love the EURO look.  Brief cool down at the end of the run before another ridge it looks like

[NEJeremy]

A healthy looking ridge pops next Monday giving us a good shot at an 80F+ temp this month...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015100500/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

 

Hopefully the Cubbies will be playing the Cardinals in the 1st round of the Playoffs and Game 3 would be at Wrigley Field.  Summer time warmth is going to attract tons of crowds near Wrigley.

 

After that, the pattern begins to transition into a cooler one.  AO is forecast to tank and the Alaskan ridge builds back in.  An above normal snow cover in the regions up north should allow some significant cold fronts to head our way towards mid month.  GFS/EURO Ensembles starting to come together Day 8-10.

Go Cubs! Lifelong Cubs fan myself. Excited and nervous already for this Wednesday. Beat the Pirates and then how sweet it would be to beat the Cards!

[Maxim]

Long range is looking really dry too. Rainfall has been sparse the past few weeks, looks like it will continue like that for the foreseeable future.

[OKwx2k4]

It's interesting to see that the CFS for December looking similar to Dec 2013. A massive snow pack should be in place hugging NW NAMER by the start of December and a tell-tale sign that the map below might be an indication of where the coldest temps may end up laying out.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15120100_0300.gif

 

Remember the overall temp departures in 2013-14??? I'll post that map below. I'm not comparing the overall winter's temps from 2013-14, but the way all the cold that year built up in NW NAMER and spilled south unlike last year when it was much farther east. Look at what the CFS has been showing consistently in NW NAMER...

 

Mid Dec...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15121100_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15121100_0300.gif

 

Late December on Christmas Eve...

.

=http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15122412_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15122412_0300.gif

 

 

 

I think the model may be picking up at less ridging hugging the NW NAMER coast line which will spill colder air farther back west into the Plains this season. JAMSTEC model has showed this last run for the Dec-Feb period....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

Interesting clues to where we may be heading as Winter inches closer and the first flakes of Snow just around the corner!

Where can I find the weatheronline maps?

[Tom]

Where can I find the weatheronline maps?

Here you go...you can choose which models, region and parameters to your liking...

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec

[OKwx2k4]

Thank you. That's pretty cool.

[Geos]

Peaked at 59° today. Heavy overcast was in place all day. Definitely feeling the season now.

 

Hoping the medium range starts to look wetter. Could use a little rain.