October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Thank you. That's pretty cool.

Anytime...Welcome to the Forum!  I'm sure everyone is itching to track our first big Autumn storm.

[Tom]

Pretty impressive down sloping event this weekend in the Plains...high temps in the upper 80's to near 90F in NE/KS on Sunday??  Summer time heat...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100606/gfs_T2m_ncus_23.png

[OKwx2k4]

Somebody put me to sleep and wake me up in December! Tired of it warming back up already.

[Tom]

Media hype driven a couple weeks ago about top 3 lowest Sea Ice in the Arctic Regions now at top 5 highest in recent years...where is the Media hype now????

 

Talk about an impressive climb...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/sea_ice_only.jpg

[gosaints]

CFSv2 easing the cool end of october.  Good chance the month pulls ahead of normal average now

[james1976]

Blow torches everywhere. Yeah wake me up when Winter arrives. haha

[Tom]

Finally!  The Sun is making an appearance after 4 cloudy days in a row...these 70's are going to feel pretty nice.  Good weekend weather to do some yard work and put away the patio furniture, hoses, etc.

[Maxim]

Somebody put me to sleep and wake me up in December! Tired of it warming back up already.

Yeah, darn, so sick of nice warm fall weather. I'd rather have 33/rain every day. 

[Tom]

Over the last 2 days, the Euro has been trending cooler by Tue/Wed of next week.  It's quicker in bringing a cold front through the Lakes region early Monday morning while the GFS has it coming in late Tuesday.  Models starting to digest the -AO pattern???

 

Here is what a -AO does in October...

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/AO/AOneg_10oct.png

[gosaints]

It will modify much like it did for this week

[Tom]

It will modify much like it did for this week

I dunno, possible, but look at the trends along the NW NAMER coastline...the model and ensembles are seeing the Ridge popping...when I see western Alaska warm...its a pretty big signal we are going to get cold.

[gosaints]

GEFS well above average through its run... will have to wait and see

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, darn, so sick of nice warm fall weather. I'd rather have 33/rain every day.

I work in a hot environment. I'm predisposed to hate being warm. Hasn't rained here since a sprinkle on the 20th of September so yeah, I'm pretty much over the warm and sunny stuff. Lol

[CentralNebWeather]

I am really excited about a change to cooler weather.  We were teased here with much cooler weather over last weekend with some rain and temps in the 40's for highs.  I can't not believe how few trees have changed color.  Some are still very green.  I don't ever remember the amount of green on the trees this time of year.

 

I mentioned it to my father who is 75 years of age and has lived in Central Nebraska his entire life.  He remembers a few falls in the 50's and 60's but he thinks it is very odd.  I was just thinking that 2 years ago all of the leaves on the 3 trees in my yard had fallen by the 24th of Oct.  Today only 1 of them has any color change and 2 are completely green.

[Maxim]

Meh, warm up for early next week isn't looking as impressive. We'll still get well into the 70s and possibly tagging 80, but record highs look out of reach at this point.

[Geos]

My 7 day has cooled off. 60s tomorrow then back to the 50s for a day. Then rising to 76° by Columbus Day.

Nights have been a bit mild this month so far, but the highs have been below normal up until today.

 

I've seen it a lot warmer for this time in October, it's just boring because there is no synoptic storms yet.

[gosaints]

Man what a yawner of a pattern.  LOOP the GEFS at 500mb if you want to see something boring

[james1976]

Man what a yawner of a pattern.  LOOP the GEFS at 500mb if you want to see something boring

Yeah, and that's not good considering the new LRC is developing.

[Tom]

It's that time of year when Winter forecasts start coming in...here is Accuweather's view...

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_10021830_screen-shot-2015-10-02-at-2.30.36-pm.png

[Maxim]

"Occasional mild days", lol... As if not every winter has those.

[Tom]

A strong and cold ULL in the desert SW spawned weak tornado's in AZ, Mtn Snows in NV and flash flooding in Las Vegas over the past 2 days.   Here's a pic near a Ski Resort just outside Vegas...

 

[Tom]

The Euro Ensembles are all over the Alaskan Ridge Day 8-15 with some sort of Split Flow pattern that may allow systems targeting the West Coast (primarily Cali or S Cali).  CFSv2 seeing that also in Week 2 & 3...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015100706/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015100706/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_5.png

 

 

Hoping this pattern picks up mid/late next week as the cooler air arrives.

 

 

Oddly enough, the same system that hit the 4 corners region the past 2 days is supposed to Loop around south into Mexico/Baja and hit S Cali again sometime mid next week!  LOL

[Tom]

Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_10_07_at_11_58_03_AM.png

[gosaints]

Everything screams snooze fest. 

[Tom]

The JMA model comes out with its new Monthlies & Weeklies run tonight/tomorrow.  It will be interesting to see what it shows for the Nov-Jan period.

[OKwx2k4]

Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_10_07_at_11_58_03_AM.png

That's pretty cool. Wonder where he gets those from. I've never found them. Anyway, looks like they may make freezing a couple of times this winter. Lol

[james1976]

That meteogram for Chicago looks lame...if Im seeing it right. Very little snow til maybe January. But its only one of a million models.

[Tom]

That meteogram for Chicago looks lame...if Im seeing it right. Very little snow til maybe January. But its only one of a million models.

Take a look at the map again, from mid Dec - mid March it has primarily all snow events suggesting another cold winter.  It has done well giving us guidance over the previous 2 winters.  Adding to the other Climate Models, including the JAMSTEC/JMA, there is some agreement amongst them that this winter could end up being cold/snowy.

 

Will post later on what I'm seeing on the Euro Ensembles and the correlation with the Typhoon re-curving east of Japan.

[Tom]

I had no doubt that we would have a re-appearance of the Hudson Bay low this Fall/Winter season.  As the new LRC takes shape, we set the stage for the Hudson Bay low to develop next Monday and continue to spin all through next week into the following week.  If this vortex does in fact become a common theme this Autumn into the Winter, I expect to see from time to time pieces of energy sliding on the southern end this weather phenomenon which can create bouts of Clippers, possibly hybrid systems.  Back in 2013-14 we saw multiple bouts of the so-called "Clipper Train" that dumped snows near the Lakes.  Now, this is just one piece of the puzzle.

 

What I'm more interested in seeing this season are healthier storm systems coming out of the W/SW.  Hopefully we see more of the Pacific Jet this season and a Split Flow pattern that could energize systems hitting the Rockies and ejecting out into the central CONUS.  The CFS model has been hinting at an active late October/November period of such systems.  Time will tell if this materializes.

 

 

In the near term, 12z Euro Ensembles starting to hone in on  a chillier pattern next week into the following.  Typhoon Cho-wan is expected to track north of Japan and eventually meander eastward into the Bearing Sea by Day 7.  The response will be for the Alaskan Ridge to blossom and that is exactly where the Euro Ensembles are heading.  I remember touching on this topic in Aug or Sept that if we should see re-curving Typhoon's in October this would only increase the probability of a cooler month.

 

I think we will see our first Frost/Freeze advisories of the season right around mid month (ish).  The coldest air of this autumn season on the way!

[james1976]

Take a look at the map again, from mid Dec - mid March it has primarily all snow events suggesting another cold winter.  It has done well giving us guidance over the previous 2 winters.  Adding to the other Climate Models, including the JAMSTEC/JMA, there is some agreement amongst them that this winter could end up being cold/snowy.

 

Will post later on what I'm seeing on the Euro Ensembles and the correlation with the Typhoon re-curving east of Japan.

Yes, I did not catch that. It is indeed showing mainly snow events for that time frame.

[james1976]

I had no doubt that we would have a re-appearance of the Hudson Bay low this Fall/Winter season.  As the new LRC takes shape, we set the stage for the Hudson Bay low to develop next Monday and continue to spin all through next week into the following week.  If this vortex does in fact become a common theme this Autumn into the Winter, I expect to see from time to time pieces of energy sliding on the southern end this weather phenomenon which can create bouts of Clippers, possibly hybrid systems.  Back in 2013-14 we saw multiple bouts of the so-called "Clipper Train" that dumped snows near the Lakes.  Now, this is just one piece of the puzzle.

 

What I'm more interested in seeing this season are healthier storm systems coming out of the W/SW.  Hopefully we see more of the Pacific Jet this season and a Split Flow pattern that could energize systems hitting the Rockies and ejecting out into the central CONUS.  The CFS model has been hinting at an active late October/November period of such systems.  Time will tell if this materializes.

 

 

In the near term, 12z Euro Ensembles starting to hone in on  a chillier pattern next week into the following.  Typhoon Cho-wan is expected to track north of Japan and eventually meander eastward into the Bearing Sea by Day 7.  The response will be for the Alaskan Ridge to blossom and that is exactly where the Euro Ensembles are heading.  I remember touching on this topic in Aug or Sept that if we should see re-curving Typhoon's in October this would only increase the probability of a cooler month.

 

I think we will see our first Frost/Freeze advisories of the season right around mid month (ish).  The coldest air of this autumn season on the way!

We had so many clippers that year here in Iowa! I was in the bullseye on a lot of them. We always do well with Clippers over here and many times they seem to over perform.

[Geos]

Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago...

 

 

Slow start to winter, but it picks up in January! Nice.

 

@ your Hudson Bay Low post.

That'll turn the north flow back on in force. (Well actually that started again today) Breezy, cloudy conditions will return then.

 

High of 64° today, which is pretty normal. Cooling off quicker tonight with clear skies.

[Tom]

Go Cub's Go!  Wow, what a dominating pitching performance by Jake Arrieta!  Looks like the weather will cooperate in both St. Louis and Chicago for the first 3 games.  This city is in a Frenzy!

[gabel23]

Go Cub's Go!  Wow, what a dominating pitching performance by Jake Arrieta!  Looks like the weather will cooperate in both St. Louis and Chicago for the first 3 games.  This city is in a Frenzy!

I would do anything to be there and experience the frenzy! Jake pitched an amazing game, I'm looking forward to the rest of the postseason. I'm doing my best to secure postseason tickets in the nlcs should they make it there......today was the deadline to apply for those tickets.

[Tom]

The annual strengthening of the Polar Vortex is beginning to show itself over the North Pole...here is the current 10mb status, then Day 10....

 

 

[gosaints]

Looks like model consensus is for at least a couple more weeks of prime fall weather

[Tom]

Can someone tell me what the GFS has been smoking lately? Has ridiculously warm 850 mb temps of up to 23C for a good chunk of the midwest next Monday. Then after that shows 0C 850 mb temps 48 hours later. Yeah, okay.... lol.

12z Euro practically has the same thing but instead of 23C 850's, more like 16-17C, then 0C 850's crash into the Lakes next Tuesday.  You could say the GFS had the right idea but to warm on the front end.

[Tom]

I am really excited about a change to cooler weather.  We were teased here with much cooler weather over last weekend with some rain and temps in the 40's for highs.  I can't not believe how few trees have changed color.  Some are still very green.  I don't ever remember the amount of green on the trees this time of year.

 

I mentioned it to my father who is 75 years of age and has lived in Central Nebraska his entire life.  He remembers a few falls in the 50's and 60's but he thinks it is very odd.  I was just thinking that 2 years ago all of the leaves on the 3 trees in my yard had fallen by the 24th of Oct.  Today only 1 of them has any color change and 2 are completely green.

Last year's cold September probably had a lot to do with it, especially here near the Lakes.  Check out the Global temp anomalies.  That year's LRC pattern was quite cold and consistently cold.  In July 2014, we even had the PV make a very rare visit in July which then cycled through in September.

[james1976]

12z Euro practically has the same thing but instead of 23C 850's, more like 16-17C, then 0C 850's crash into the Lakes next Tuesday.  You could say the GFS had the right idea but to warm on the front end.

Today's 12z GFS is pretty much a torch. The big cool shot it was showing for the weekend of the 17th is gone. Maybe it will flip flop cuz thats over a week away. But even the cool down for Tuesday next week is almost gone on this run.

[OKwx2k4]

Storm Oho crashing into southern Alaska kinda has us screwed for the time being. Putting the cool down into late month now.