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PNW December 2021 Obs - Winter Canceled Edition


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Even with the N/S gradient problem at the end, this is still the best EC run in a while.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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Snow for northern areas.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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I am currently watching Pacific Northwest Weather Chasers by Michael Snyder. (You Tube) Very interesting, the overall theme is that snow chances for Western Washington is above the 6 percent chance for Christmas. The main gist is that all the players are present for a White Christmas as many of the posters here have mentioned in the past two weeks. So, I am not an expert but it does seem the theme of colder weather has been fairly consistent.

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00z ECMWF Tonight: Block slightly further east, more amplified, not nearly as much digging off of the coast.ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.thumb.png.767cb279f9d850b2b3dc20cbca2589dc.png

00z ECMWF last night: just looks messy

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.thumb.png.ad37656fd93094e9bc7d3d7d987bfabc.png

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Lynnwood Snowfall (2021-2022)

12/14/21: Snowflakes in the air for 5 mins

12/26/21: 6"

12/27/21-12/28/21: 2"

12/29-12/30: 3.5”

1/2: 2”

1/5: 0.5”

Total: 14”

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Christmas to New Years is gonna be cold!!!!!!! 🥶

You may be right. It’s coming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This is what MJO 7 should yield.  Normally a 7 MJO wave makes the block a hair too far east if anything.  Let's hope we can build on this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Wow! Anti science weather and meteorology enthusiasts. I thought I'd seen it allJimmy Fallon Reaction GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

You must be new here?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Have a feeling you’re gonna be in a good spot.

Yeah...Hard to imagine extreme southern BC not scoring.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The end of the run shows a few more inches here on Christmas Day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Things sure look poised for another shot a couple of days after the end of the run as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The EPS has at least moved some toward handling the cutoff like the operational, but probably not quite there fully yet.  We'll see how it unfolds.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't say I was expecting that!  Amazing what just a slightly different evolution yields on this ECMWF run.

We're dealing with a very complex pattern with the cut-off low. So it would make sense for the EURO to show this if it's data assimilation algorithms have a different output. Hopefully it is correct and we see colder runs ahead. 🙏🏻

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All the way down to 59 here in Tulsa. Brrrrr

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The control goes bananas on this run.  PV ends up over extreme southern BC and noses into WA with very cold air.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wanted to share something I've noticed over the past two Euro runs, starting with the 12z.

There is a boat load of cold air over on Putin's side of the pole. I think Phil mentioned something about this a couple days ago. 12z Euro introduced the idea that a larger lobe of that cold air works between the -PNA/-EPO and -NAO blocks and onto our side of the pole, phasing better with the trough dropping down through BC. 

I got some gifs to share to demonstrate this. First, the 00z run from last night. Pay extra attention to the energy located near Siberia. The chunk that breaks off is not much to write home about. Not very impressive at 500mb, not particularly expansive cold at 850mb. Relies more on home-grown cold in Western Canada. Doesn't phase with the trough as well.

1148094430_00zlastnightnotphasing.thumb.gif.20b370d1d003b400dfc710098670fcd5.gif

100654581_00zlastnight850snotasgood.thumb.gif.5bfa54cc507ede7d8c325d74fcbdf007.gif

 

 

Now compare those to the 00z run tonight. Again, all eyes on the energy moving off Siberia and between our two blocking highs.

978371924_00ztonightlobephasing.thumb.gif.e26f4d70cfe253b5a89131063af6c06d.gif

292087085_00ztonight850scolder.thumb.gif.b92c1d91a24f0e5ff9f2a23ff11b6e82.gif

Notice the difference? A much larger chunk of cold air (by the end of the run, practically the entire original source) gets pushed onto our side of the pole and, with the upper level pattern the way it is modeled, right into our backyard. This might have been what the 18z GFS ensemble was picking up on. That's pure conjecture, but an idea that came to mind.

Anyways, I'm still sitting in the background and found I've enjoyed looking at the models a lot more when I don't have to try and persuade people that there is very good potential in this pattern. Think of it now... Cutoff low energy/moisture coinciding with cold Siberia air around Christmas time. I'm sure someone will find something wrong (160W!!!), but I remain quite optimistic. Nothing is a slam dunk (racoon rug pull!) but this is a nice new development.

Awesome post!! Great stuff!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Pics plz

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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