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PNW December 2021 Obs - Winter Canceled Edition


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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 nope

500h_anom.na.png

What's so fun* about this is that if the pattern were shifted 150 miles east it would be stellar. Probably a snowstorm Christmas day.

*maddeningly sad

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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So let's see.. We have a tanked -PNA, A slightly negative EPO about to tank in a few days, MJO phase 7, -PDO, bitter cold to the north, massive anomalous block several standard deviations above normal, NW/Okhotsk trough, Pacific shutting down, SSW reportedly about to begin, and a super typhoon. I just don't see how the models have locked in on any one given solution yet. Everything seems aligned for us.

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 1 minute

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Aren't you glad it doesn't show an epic snowstorm and cold on Christmas?  After all, if it did, when have the models EVER been exactly 100% right 9+ days out?  

So why worry about the high being 150 miles too far east or west 9+ days out?

 

 

9 days is an eternity. Change is inevitable.

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

So let's see.. We have a tanked -PNA, A slightly negative EPO about to tank in a few days, MJO phase 7, -PDO, bitter cold to the north, massive anomalous block several standard deviations above normal, NW/Okhotsk trough, Pacific shutting down, SSW reportedly about to begin, and a super typhoon. I just don't see how the models have locked in on any one given solution yet. Everything seems aligned for us.

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 1 minute

All the stars are aligned for something big.

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But Wait!....
....There's MORE!!!!

Yeah. You might want to read the last part. This sounds potentially real promising depending on how much of that bitter air digs down into our region. I was not expecting to read anything like this. I added ** so you can find it easier.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
329 AM PST Thu Dec 16 2021
 
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...Once the Bering Low has dropped down into the Pacific and deepened the system, it seems as though this low will be cutoff from the main flow and remain off the shore of the US West Coast potentially through the first half of the week, before a colder system drops down from AK toward the Pacific Northwest for the second half of the week into the weekend.
 
The frontal system seems to stall a bit over southern OR or northern CA area Sunday. At this point, increased PoPs for Sunday to account for this, but the bulk of the energy and moisture should shift south of the forecast area, so not concerned about any hydro issues at this time. Weather will remain unsettled for the first half as the low remains offshore, though models differ on shortwave energy pulses that shed off of it and towards the coast. Another shortwave is being resolved for Wednesday to drop south along British Columbia to bring another frontal system into the forecast area. The EC is the furthest west outlier and therefore holding the cutoff low the longest out of the other models. The GFS and Canadian has the flow drag the upper low back inland in the Thursday or Friday time frame.
 
** While they differ with this part of the system, the deterministic and ensembles of these models all show a much colder system dropping out of Alaska and through the Yukon down toward the Pacific Northwest for late in the week. This pattern is being shown in the multi-model ensemble solution from the cluster analysis which would start to tip the scales in favor to potentially see a white Christmas for some in the Pacific Northwest. **
/Kriederman
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Excerpt from Pendleton NWS is also interesting. They say the cut-off low will retrograde offshore.

For Monday through Wednesday ensembles are in good agreement on developing 
a split flow regime over the area with an upper low retrograding off the 
coast and the nrn branch of the jet stream moving across WA. Most of the 
concentrated moisture will be focused to the south in California but there 
will be a chance of mountain snow and a slight chance of a rain/snow mix in 
the lower elevations. By Thursday it appears that a colder upper trough will 
drop sewd across the area in NW flow aloft 
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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wanted to share something I've noticed over the past two Euro runs, starting with the 12z.

There is a boat load of cold air over on Putin's side of the pole. I think @Phil mentioned something about this a couple days ago. 12z Euro introduced the idea that a larger lobe of that cold air works between the -PNA/-EPO and -NAO blocks and onto our side of the pole, phasing better with the trough dropping down through BC. 

I got some gifs to share to demonstrate this. First, the 00z run from last night. Pay extra attention to the energy located near Siberia. The chunk that breaks off is not much to write home about. Not very impressive at 500mb, not particularly expansive cold at 850mb. Relies more on home-grown cold in Western Canada. Doesn't phase with the trough as well.

1148094430_00zlastnightnotphasing.thumb.gif.20b370d1d003b400dfc710098670fcd5.gif

100654581_00zlastnight850snotasgood.thumb.gif.5bfa54cc507ede7d8c325d74fcbdf007.gif

 

 

Now compare those to the 00z run tonight. Again, all eyes on the energy moving off Siberia and between our two blocking highs.

978371924_00ztonightlobephasing.thumb.gif.e26f4d70cfe253b5a89131063af6c06d.gif

292087085_00ztonight850scolder.thumb.gif.b92c1d91a24f0e5ff9f2a23ff11b6e82.gif

Notice the difference? A much larger chunk of cold air (by the end of the run, practically the entire original source) gets pushed onto our side of the pole and, with the upper level pattern the way it is modeled, right into our backyard. This might have been what the 18z GFS ensemble was picking up on. That's pure conjecture, but an idea that came to mind.

Anyways, I'm still sitting in the background and found I've enjoyed looking at the models a lot more when I don't have to try and persuade people that there is very good potential in this pattern. Think of it now... Cutoff low energy/moisture coinciding with cold Siberia air around Christmas time. I'm sure someone will find something wrong (160W!!!), but I remain quite optimistic. Nothing is a slam dunk (racoon rug pull!) but this is a nice new development.

Real impressive analysis. Do more of this 👍

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7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I definitely have symptoms. I can tell I have “something” but didn’t think much of it until we found out we were exposed over the weekend. Wife has it too but she feels completely fine aside from a plugged ear. Omicron???

I was exposed on a Monday. First symptom was a headache on Friday. Then mid day Saturday the chills hit and they were intense. From there the next 8 days sucked. All neurological symptoms, muscle, joint, organ pain, and total exhaustion. Never had a fever or a cough. 

Lost my smell on day 5 of Having symptoms and it came back 10 days later.  

Hope yours is mild. 

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Another 6-8" overnight. Snowpack on the level is about 30"

Also a snowy tree pick from my works parking lot yesterday cause it looked amazing when the sun came out 

20211216_054923.jpg

20211216_054952.jpg

20211215_121438.jpg

Beautiful pics Al.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Temp dropped about 40 degrees overnight here in Tulsa. Still above average.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Lost in all this was that the 06z was very wet.

  • Snow 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, snow drift said:

If you have cats, don't show them the 6z gfs. They may try to bury it. I attached a picture of my phone, which has the 6z gfs running on it.

download (7).jpeg

Thats about the nastiest picture ive ever run into during breakfast.  You should post a warning first.  I would start out with something like, "May induce vomiting."

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