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PNW December 2021 Obs - Winter Canceled Edition


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8 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

The rug pill usually happens after all the models line up and agree on a specific pattern, then the first model starts to sneak out the back door, then the other…

right now there is impressive alignment between the 00z model runs inside of day 7-8 or so.  
the rug pull happens on Tues or Wed, if at all. This thing could get colder before it happens just as well.

 

Official rug pull won't happen until 12Z 12/23, if it happens at all.

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9 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

You are a dad joke making machine.

These Arctic troughs need to get their sh*t in one bag and bend back better. Otherwise my poor Manchin won’t end up with three feet of snow on the roof.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Judging from some of those initial reactions I was expecting an absolutely horrible run-- this seems pretty okay? Maybe not as good, and certainly not as fun as the 12z in the long range, but it looks just fine.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It's OVER 🥰🌭

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@DJ Droppin what do U think? Are u not liking what u see?

Euro was fine, cold enough for snow. However, seeing the 00z GEFS, 00z CMCE, and now 00z ECMWF all want to dig the arctic trough off BC further north IF this is a precursor to that trend it's definitely bad. It would be game over for anyone south of Everett/Bellingham. It's only one run, and it doesn't take much to change the position and tilt of the block. 12z runs will probably be different, but exactly what those details who knows. 12z runs tomorrow could easily shift the block back to the east with resumed frigid/snowy runs. I'm going to sleep now.

6z GFS in 2 hour 33 minutes

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It's COMING 😱👀

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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worse.png

I think it's high time to use this again! 😱

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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I'm not gonna say if the Euro was good, bad, or ugly, or if there's any meaningful trend. Don't know.

All I'll say is that when you're looking 3+ days out, the more important things to be looking for in models are in the overall pattern...not the 850s or the snow totals, as fun as they are to imagine.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Judging from some of those initial reactions I was expecting an absolutely horrible run-- this seems pretty okay? Maybe not as good, and certainly not as fun as the 12z in the long range, but it looks just fine.

We're just having some fun and doing some mild trolling. If/when there is an actual rug pull this place ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

BTW what was your total snow last night?

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 5

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0390400.png

Can you post the operational run at the same hour?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

We're just having some fun and doing some mild trolling. If/when there is an actual rug pull this place ain't gonna be pretty. 

 

BTW what was your total snow last night?

About an inch and a half or so-- definitely a welcome surprise.

Looking forward to more fun in the coming weeks-- rug pull notwithstanding!

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  • Snow 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm not gonna say if the Euro was good, bad, or ugly, or if there's any meaningful trend. Don't know.

All I'll say is that when you're looking 3+ days out, the more important things to be looking for in models are in the overall pattern...not the 850s or the snow totals, as fun as they are to imagine.

Should we also make sure and get 16 servings of vegetables a day and floss regularly?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm going to guess that the Euro OP run was a warm outlier.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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