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The 2021 It’s Coming/It’s Over, Endless Winter Arctic Outbreak Forecast Contest


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It’s time. Bust through the hyperbole and put your weenie where your mouth is. Transcend model waffles and make this outbreak your own through the power of fore/wishcasting!

The day of our savior’s birth through 12/29.

Highs/lows/daily snowfall.

PDX/SEA will be SCOREd, but feel free to add your own, even if you live well outside the region (Tiger…).

Deadline for entry will be 11:59 p.m. on 12/23/2021.

This is a winner-take-all affair. The winner will take home, in addition to forum superiority for ALL top tier blasts over the last 31 years, an all expense paid, chaperoned dinner at an establishment of your choice* with Judah Cohen and Cliff Mass.

Millions will play, only ONE will win!

* - must be either Carl’s Jr. or a different Carl’s Jr.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Eh here we go. Just doing total snowfall and lowest temp we’ll have 
 

B-ham will get 20 inches of snow with a low of -6 

Mossman: 30 inches with a low of -3

KSEA: 18 inches with a low of 4 

KPLU: 23 inches with a low of -1

KPDX: 22 inches with a low of -2

TWL: 27 inches with a low of 6

 

 

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SEA 

12/24 40/35 0.0”

12/25 37/33 0.5”

12/26 33/25 2.0”

12/27 26/19 0.5”

12/28 25/17 0.0”

12/29 22/14 0.0”

12/30 21/10 0.0”

12/31 21/9  0.5”

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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PDX:

12/25: 38/30 0.0"

12/26: 36/29 1.2"

12/27: 31/21 1.1"

12/28: 29/19 0.0"

12/29: 27/17 0.0"

BZN:

12/25: 30/14 0.0"

12/26: 20/-2 4.2"

12/27: 0/-10 2.2"

12/28: -6/-18 1.8"

12/29: -10/-32 0.0"

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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PDX

12/25: 41/34

12/26: 38/30 

12/27: 32/25 

12/28: 28/18 

12/29: 29/20

Snow Total: 4.2”

 

SEA

12/25: 38/30

12/26: 33/27

12/27: 30/23

12/28: 29/19

12/29: 30/18

Snow Total: 4.3”

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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I know this is after the deadline, but I've been into data analysis lately so I wanted to see what the models were forecasting. Took longer than I thought, so I'm only posting for Seattle. Basically I used the temperature and snow forecasts off of Pivotal to look at the 4 model runs previous to the deadline. I don't have actual access to the numerical data, so I was estimating based off the maps.

For the GFS these were: 12-23 06z, 12-23 12z, 12-23 18z, 12-24 00z
For the Euro these were: 12-22 12z, 12-23 00z, 12-23 12z, 12-24 00z

Then I weighted each run based on it's recency. This was pretty arbitrary, but I decided to choose 40% weight for the most recent and dropping 10% for each previous run because that added up to 100% pretty easily.

Euro_GFS_20211223_weightedForecast.png.73768f6b3c4e15e068545abac19d2e3a.png

Euro_GFS_snow_weight.png.ef67c6b025c17691a7465c23a23fd3cc.png

Then I looked at the values and kind of randomly estimated how much weight I wanted to give to each model to blend them. For the temperatures this ended up being 70% Euro and 30% GFS while I did a 50-50 split for snowfall. I think it will be interesting to see how close the temperatures/snow ends up to these.

final_sea_temp_forecast.png.b7595255b96504e409830375b45d41d4.png

final_SEA_snow_fcst.png.cec32345f3c476dddaa8fb5211e613ca.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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