Deweydog Posted December 21, 2021 Report Share Posted December 21, 2021 It’s time. Bust through the hyperbole and put your weenie where your mouth is. Transcend model waffles and make this outbreak your own through the power of fore/wishcasting! The day of our savior’s birth through 12/29. Highs/lows/daily snowfall. PDX/SEA will be SCOREd, but feel free to add your own, even if you live well outside the region (Tiger…). Deadline for entry will be 11:59 p.m. on 12/23/2021. This is a winner-take-all affair. The winner will take home, in addition to forum superiority for ALL top tier blasts over the last 31 years, an all expense paid, chaperoned dinner at an establishment of your choice* with Judah Cohen and Cliff Mass. Millions will play, only ONE will win! * - must be either Carl’s Jr. or a different Carl’s Jr. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2021 Less than 60 hours until your prognosticating sh*t needs to be in one bag! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 No competitors yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: No competitors yet Go for it! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 I’ll start! SEA: 12/24: 43/36 0” 12/25: 38/29 1.5” 12/26: 31/23 2” 12/27: 25/19 0” 12/28: 23/17 0” 12/29: 22/16 0” total snow through the 29th: 3.5-4” Will do one for PDX later when I’m free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Man I need some time to study, I'll do a GEG by the deadline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Eh here we go. Just doing total snowfall and lowest temp we’ll have B-ham will get 20 inches of snow with a low of -6 Mossman: 30 inches with a low of -3 KSEA: 18 inches with a low of 4 KPLU: 23 inches with a low of -1 KPDX: 22 inches with a low of -2 TWL: 27 inches with a low of 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 SEA 12/24 40/35 0.0” 12/25 37/33 0.5” 12/26 33/25 2.0” 12/27 26/19 0.5” 12/28 25/17 0.0” 12/29 22/14 0.0” 12/30 21/10 0.0” 12/31 21/9 0.5” Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 PDX 12/25: 40/33 0.0” 12/26: 37/27 1.1” 12/27: 33/24 0.2” 12/28: 29/18 0.4” 12/29: 25/16 0.0” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 GEG (Sorry I don't know the Climate well enough on the west side) 12/24: 33/26 1.8" 12/25: 30/19 2.5" 12/26: 22/4 3" 12/27: 8/-4 1.5" 12/28: 8/-4 .8" 12/29: 5/-6 0" Bonus: 12/30: 7/0 0" 12/31: 10/2 .6" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 PDX 12/25: 41/32 0.2" 12/26: 38/30 0.8" 12/27: 32/25 1.5" 12/28: 26/18 3.5" 12/29: 25/13 0.3" Total: 6.3" SEA 12/25: 38/29 0.3" 12/26: 34/26 2.2" 12/27: 30/23 0.4" 12/28: 29/19 0.6" 12/29: 30/16 Total: 3.5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 PDX: 12/25: 43/35 0 12/26: 39/31 1.1 12/27: 34/27 T 12/28: 30/24 1.8 12/29: 31/19 0 I reserve the right to tweak! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 SEA 12/24 43/34 0.0 12/25 37/33 .5 12/26 34/28 2.0 12/27 23/23 1.0 12/28 17/11 2.5 12/29 21/14 0.0 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 16 hours ago, Deweydog said: PDX: 12/25: 43/35 0 12/26: 39/31 1.1 12/27: 34/27 T 12/28: 30/24 1.8 12/29: 31/19 0 I reserve the right to tweak! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 Down to just over 12 hours to get your entries in! Will the dream of a 06z GFS cataclysm come to fruition or will Phil’s bucket of lukewarm European acronyms leave us in the land of 21st century mediocrity??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 PDX: 12/25: 38/30 0.0" 12/26: 36/29 1.2" 12/27: 31/21 1.1" 12/28: 29/19 0.0" 12/29: 27/17 0.0" BZN: 12/25: 30/14 0.0" 12/26: 20/-2 4.2" 12/27: 0/-10 2.2" 12/28: -6/-18 1.8" 12/29: -10/-32 0.0" Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 24, 2021 Report Share Posted December 24, 2021 PDX: 12/25 - 42/35 12/26 - 40/33 1” 12/27 - 35/29 1” 12/28 - 33/25 12/29 - 34/22 Total snow 2” Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 24, 2021 Report Share Posted December 24, 2021 Almost forgot about the contest. I'll have mine in before the deadline! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2021 2 hours 19 minutes!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 24, 2021 Report Share Posted December 24, 2021 PDX 12/25: 41/34 12/26: 38/30 12/27: 32/25 12/28: 28/18 12/29: 29/20 Snow Total: 4.2” SEA 12/25: 38/30 12/26: 33/27 12/27: 30/23 12/28: 29/19 12/29: 30/18 Snow Total: 4.3” Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 24, 2021 Report Share Posted December 24, 2021 SEA: 12/25: 37/34 1.5" 12/26: 29/26 2" 12/27: 23/14 0" 12/28: 27/14 0" 12/29: 26/16 0" Snow Total: 3.5" PDX: 12/25: 40/36 0" 12/26: 36/31 3" 12/27: 31/21 1.5" 12/28: 32/21 0" 12/29: 27/19 0" Snow Total: 4.5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 24, 2021 Report Share Posted December 24, 2021 I know this is after the deadline, but I've been into data analysis lately so I wanted to see what the models were forecasting. Took longer than I thought, so I'm only posting for Seattle. Basically I used the temperature and snow forecasts off of Pivotal to look at the 4 model runs previous to the deadline. I don't have actual access to the numerical data, so I was estimating based off the maps. For the GFS these were: 12-23 06z, 12-23 12z, 12-23 18z, 12-24 00z For the Euro these were: 12-22 12z, 12-23 00z, 12-23 12z, 12-24 00z Then I weighted each run based on it's recency. This was pretty arbitrary, but I decided to choose 40% weight for the most recent and dropping 10% for each previous run because that added up to 100% pretty easily. Then I looked at the values and kind of randomly estimated how much weight I wanted to give to each model to blend them. For the temperatures this ended up being 70% Euro and 30% GFS while I did a 50-50 split for snowfall. I think it will be interesting to see how close the temperatures/snow ends up to these. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 For days one and two… PDX: 12/25: 42/35 12/26: 38/32 SEA: 12/25: 37/31 12/26: 31/20 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 So who is winning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Day three and four in all their reality, although I hear there’s some CONTROVERSY in the land of three runaways… PDX: 12/27: 34/26 12/28: 35/31 SEA: 12/27: 27/17 12/28: 28/24 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 9:52 AM, BLI snowman said: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 And that’s a wrap!!! Final verifications: PDX: 42/35 38/32 34/26 35/31 35/28 SEA: 37/31 31/20 27/17 28/24 29/22 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 hours ago, Deweydog said: And that’s a wrap!!! Final verifications: PDX: 42/35 38/32 34/26 35/31 35/28 SEA: 37/31 31/20 27/17 28/24 29/22 Who won? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Who won? Did you enter? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Did you enter? No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: No You have very little chance of winning. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Deweydog said: You have very little chance of winning. Who's da closest!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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