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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

They all do.  Wouldn't call this a large pullback either.

I remember at one point we would have killed to have ensembles looking half as good as they do right now only a week or so off from the event.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Didn't February 2019 have several of these pullbacks? Like pretty large scale, too? 

It kind of materialized out of nowhere. Most people had written the winter off at that point after another piss poor January. I think Tim was the only one to lock onto it after the EPS jumped onboard. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Someone thought this comparison made them sick.  Why?  Very slight differences.  Am I wrong? More cold air off the Oregon coast on 12z, but not a huge difference.

I meant to hit the scream emoji tbh😱 I’ll wait until the 0z Thursday to use the 🤮 if this continues😂😂😂

I am multi tasking and not paying attention tbh  @Brian_in_Leavenworth

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6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I remember at one point we would have killed to have ensembles looking half as good as they do right now only a week or so off from the event.

You just gotta roll with it. This is the hazard of models peaking too soon and it’s a pretty typical psychological effect. If you’re promised a free Mercedes E Class a week away and two days later you’re promised a free Ford Focus instead, you’re pissed about a free car.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

The recent GFS runs have really clouded our expectations. 

Euro has spit out some gaudy numbers too.  I think the big change has been the fact the GFS actually called out those redic values from June's heatwave and we correlated that success with the possibility that this could happen again.  Time will tell.

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The models won’t be exactly the same run to run 5-6 days out. Seeing the same general pattern run after run is good news.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Forget who mentioned it (@Meatyorologist?) but there definitely seems to be something in the 00z suite initialization that is picking up less of an punch with the initial cold air. All 00z ensembles changes went that direction through Christmas.

Too soon to say what might become of it but it's something to note. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_c_dprog-0476800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_c_dprog-0476800.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_c_dprog-0455200.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Forget who mentioned it but there definitely seems to be something in the 00z suite initialization that is picking up less of an punch with the initial cold air. All 00z ensembles changes went that direction through Christmas.

Too soon to say what might become of it but it's something to note. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_c_dprog-0476800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_c_dprog-0476800.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_c_dprog-0455200.png

is me 🙋‍♂️

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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This looks incredibly promising to be an awesome event.  This ECMWF run had 5 consecutive max temps of 33 or below for SEA and ends with epic cold.  The GEFS has a mean of -7 over Seattle at the end of the run.  Everything shows this being a long run of cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

JAYA said he could see this going two ways. A warmer but snowier solution or more of a cold dry blast. We’ll have to see 

We could pull off both if there is a quick hitting moderation during the reign of cold weather.  Also going into the cold is always a good bet with a Fraser River event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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We are talking dramatically colder at day 9.  Incredible for an ensemble mean.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Shocking!  Highs in the low 20s on an ensemble mean 10 days out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Colder air filters into the Columbia River Basin. Nice!!!!

We don't need the Columbia Basin with this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We don't need the Columbia Basin with this.

Would definitely make me more confident-- easiest route to getting appreciable cold and snow in Portland at least.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands
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