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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's hard to avoid a warm up without some type of inversion.

February 2019 had unbelievably sustained cold here. We went almost 6 weeks without a high above 40. From February 3-March 10th we had accumulating snow on 26 days. But we also had several days where the dominant precip type was rain, and many days that featured both rain and snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2019 had unbelievably sustained cold here. We went almost 6 weeks without a high above 40. From February 3-March 10th we had accumulating snow on 26 days. But we also had several days where the dominant precip type was rain, and many days that featured both rain and snow. 

We were just consistently cold because of the jet suppression. We'd get a few inches of snow, and then it would get colder again. It was pretty nice.

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4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We were just consistently cold, because of the jet suppression. We'd get a few inches of snow, and then it would get colder again. It was pretty nice.

February 2019 had the coldest average max of any February on record at the Silver Falls station by about 3F, pretty amazing (35.4). It beat out February 1989 for coldest monthly mean for February by 0.1F. The average max of 35.4 was a top 5 coldest average max for any month in the 1938-present period of record. The one caveat being Silver Falls does not have data from January 1950, sadly... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, xfkirsten said:

Finally just had a chance to check in after a morning of work before a deployment... I see pages and pages since last night, so that must mean good things! 😂

Now the real question: do I venture out to stores in the midst of the pre-Christmas buying panic so that I can restock on Duraflame logs before that buying panic begins?

Amazon it!

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2019 had the coldest average max of any February on record at the Silver Falls station by about 3F, pretty amazing (35.4). It beat out February 1989 for coldest monthly mean for February by 0.1F. The average max of 35.4 was a top 5 coldest average max for any month in the 1938-present period of record. The one caveat being Silver Falls does not have data from January 1950, sadly... 

Wow! Colder than February 1989, huh? Impressive stuff.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2019 had the coldest average max of any February on record at the Silver Falls station by about 3F, pretty amazing (35.4). It beat out February 1989 for coldest monthly mean for February by 0.1F. The average max of 35.4 was a top 5 coldest average max for any month in the 1938-present period of record. The one caveat being Silver Falls does not have data from January 1950, sadly... 

Also, the coldest high that month was only 31. However, the station recorded 8 sub-freezing highs and 17 highs of 35 or lower. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I kind of liked that one. Extremely wet fall, and then the faucet shut off after New Year's. 

A couple late season gasps at snow. There were a couple times 1-2" inches fell in April. 

March was just about without any snow.

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Any chances to avoiding a winter cancel for TWL? Not sure what his elevation is.

It's one run from one model for a week out. There will be plenty of chances to avoid a "winter cancel" even for the "winter cancel/this climate is horrible" king himself.

OR is actually sitting in a much better position for snowfall next week than WA, IMO. At least at this point.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I'm not saying it won't move east, but it's possible it won't, too.

Yup, agree with you, this is a quick hitter and then winter is over after that. Our friends back east are in for a treat and hopefully get some snow too. A lot better to look at pictures and watch videos than have to deal with shoveling snow and wrapping pipes.

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

February 1989 was relatively short lived.  Only lasted about 5 or 6 days in Bellingham IIRC

We had a couple days of highs in the teens and lows near 0 in 1989, but the end of the month moderated things a bit, it was still a chilly month overall and never torched, but we had a stretch of highs into the upper 40s towards the end of the month. The average low was quite a bit cooler in 1989, it's just the insanely cold average high in 2019 that caused the month to turn out so cold. Looking at the PRISM data which goes back to 1893, it looks like the only February at our location that came in colder was 1929, and 1936 might have been slightly cooler too, can't remember. But 2019 was either #2 or 3 going all the way back to 1892. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Also, the coldest high that month was only 31. However, the station recorded 8 sub-freezing highs and 17 highs of 35 or lower. 

Had lows under zero that month but in regards with highs, nothing was as cold as Dec 2013 since then. That was the last time we had a high under 10, or even under 15 I think.

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS still running but 850s have had a nice 24 hours. Renton bottoms out at the following for each

18z yesterday: -11.6

00z: -12.9

06z: -12.5

12z: -13.81AC1DB52-6A3E-4ED5-A7CB-FCF19523E8CE.thumb.jpeg.e52cc5335fc2b8444735e7c2e8a810df.jpeg

Considering there's not a single member above -10C, can I start buying in yet, or should I wait another couple days? 

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

I was wondering why he uses the SNOD change instead of just showing where the actual cold anomalies are going to be. Curious decision.

Then I took a look at the ensembles for his much-hyped "flip" in January for the east coast...

1641168000-4whOCKHacgI.png

1641405600-B7JwzsXWiUQ.png

1641297600-6eAtnXqTb38.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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The GEM wasn't amazing for PDX-south, but it wasn't bad either, individual model solutions will vary, but we have a solid pattern potentially locked in. The macro level looks great. Details will always break either way, wouldn't surprise me if we have some surprise "warm ups" and conversely some days that stay much colder than expected, over the next couple weeks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I was wondering why he uses the SNOD change instead of just showing where the actual cold anomalies are going to be. Curious decision.

Then I took a look at the ensembles for his much-hyped "flip" in January for the east coast...

1641168000-4whOCKHacgI.png

1641405600-B7JwzsXWiUQ.png

1641297600-6eAtnXqTb38.png

Dude is grasping at straws, but then again so were we a couple weeks ago. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Considering there's not a single member above -10C, can I start buying in yet, or should I wait another couple days? 

Buy in. All in.

The cold is coming, to whatever extreme that may or may not be. Snow still in question.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands
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