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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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Just now, Chris said:

Yeah I saw that but regardless of their definition of an inch on the ground at 4 am, I think a lot of people would count it as a white Christmas if snow is falling.  Also the NAM3k doesn't go to 4 am yet.

Yeah. My thought exactly.... if any of that falls on Christmas day, I'm throwing technicality out the window and call it a white christmas! 

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow shadow will be short lived. Don't worry about it. 

Indeed.  Everyone is shown to get snow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Incredibly stormy afternoon up here. Dark as night at 3:54pm with pounding rain and the wind ripping through the trees. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm actually concerned about him, he said he was scared and hasn't been on here much, I think the stress of the models and the deep snow really freaked him out.

Are you serious? He seems so unflappable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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0.40” so far at home about to go over 4” for the month shortly. Looks like we will finish the month with just 3 +50 highs…2 of them the first 2 days of the month. Not running too big of a positive departure currently and obviously going to be negative by the end. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I present to you all my Poutine w/ Smoked Beef Short Ribs, Pork Babyback Rib Meat,  Cheese Curds and Homemade Savory Gravy!!

20211222_154254.thumb.jpg.a23236545ad1b30fef66a2313b1dcd2b.jpg

20211222_154338.thumb.jpg.6626b8b84b23874b2fd4e150f9ece915.jpg

Any recommendations on smokers?  I've had my eye on the Kamado Joe for a while but I just can't pull the trigger when I already have a gas grill and minimal space.

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Hmmm...something about this NWS point forecast for next Tuesday seems a little off...I'm not sure I can exactly place it though.

1824604556_ScreenShot2021-12-22at4_04_56PM.thumb.png.b3dd008133c17e99c023b11d112b2b15.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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47F and heavy rain.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Just now, einsteinjr said:

Any recommendations on smokers?  I've had my eye on the Kamado Joe for a while but I just can't pull the trigger when I already have a gas grill and minimal space.

I have pellet smokers right now, both Traeger, a Pro 22 and Pro 34. I am actually looking to build my own stick burn smoker next summer.  I have heard good things about the Joes, just really love the convenience of a Traeger.  No noticeable difference between them and traditional flavor wise.

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I have pellet smokers right now, both Traeger, a Pro 22 and Pro 34. I am actually looking to build my own stick burn smoker next summer.  I have heard good things about the Joes, just really love the convenience of a Traeger.  No noticeable difference between them and traditional flavor wise.

One of my high school football coaches was a co-founder of Traeger. The Traeger's actually sold the company around 2008 though, and they are no longer manufactured in Mt. Angel. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of my high school football coaches was a co-founder of Traeger. The Traeger's actually sold the company around 2008 though, and they are no longer manufactured in Mt. Angel. 

Yep, I had an opportunity to buy one of the ones built in Mt. Angel, seller decided to keep it.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have pellet smokers right now, both Traeger, a Pro 22 and Pro 34. I am actually looking to build my own stick burn smoker next summer.  I have heard good things about the Joes, just really love the convenience of a Traeger.  No noticeable difference between them and traditional flavor wise.

We also have a Traeger, and love it. Im not sure on the exact model, its a big one though. Hubbs smokes a brisket every Thanksgiving, we are doing a turkey for Christmas. We did a big pork shoulder over the summer,for our son's graduation party, for pulled pork sammiches. Every thing has always turned out amazing!

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Just noticed the Central and South valley get hit by an AR on the last 24 hours of the 18z. Snow levels don't get above 3-4,000', but that's still a ton of rain on a ton of low elevation snow. Looks like another wintry blast is barreling down the BC Coast at the same time. 

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_61.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Yep, I had an opportunity to buy one of the ones built in Mt. Angel, seller decided to keep it.

There are a couple of people around here who refurbish the old Mt. Angel ones they find and resell them. I imagine they are pretty pricy. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have pellet smokers right now, both Traeger, a Pro 22 and Pro 34. I am actually looking to build my own stick burn smoker next summer.  I have heard good things about the Joes, just really love the convenience of a Traeger.  No noticeable difference between them and traditional flavor wise.

I just looked up the prices for both of these… completely affordable. I love making jerky and would probably be a very good investment. 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are a couple of people around here who refurbish the old Mt. Angel ones they find and resell them. I imagine they are pretty pricy. 

Yes they are, his needed some refurbishing but I was willing to pay what he was asking a couple years ago, I think he researched and knew he could get more if he made it like new again.

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Wow.... Oh, and 18z GEFS is amazing. Block reorganizes quickly Day 8-9 right over the sweet spot with great amplification. A very prolonged cold wave, especially backdoor cold/low level arctic air. Colder runs ahead and people need to get ready for historic cold. It's coming. MBG.

00z GFS in 3 hours 10 minutes

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Coldest days I can remember is 2/4/19 and 12/20/08. 

Pretty sure I saw 7 at some point in 2008, at least according to weather.com.

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve been working all afternoon on trying to fuse together a cheap knock off graphite snow shovel shaft. Hasn’t gone well.

That and I updated my life insurance policy. I’ve seen The Day After Tomorrow so I know what happens when you mistakenly walk outside and breathe in the upcoming air.

I am assembling the gas cans to take in tomorrow to fill for the generator. Good thing I have been saving those Fred Meyer gas rewards points!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow.... Oh, and 18z GEFS is amazing. Block reorganizes quickly Day 8-9 right over the sweet spot with great amplification. A very prolonged cold wave, especially backdoor cold/low level arctic air. Colder runs ahead and people need to get ready for historic cold. It's coming. MBG.

00z GFS in 3 hours 10 minutes

and it wants to reset again at the very end!

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1640196000-1641168000-1641578400-10.gif

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We hit 2 just after midnight on 12/8/13. To bad we didn't get much snow on the 6th or we would have easily gone below 0. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We hit 2 just after midnight on 12/8/13. To bad we didn't get much snow on the 6th or we would have easily gone below 0. 

It was only a couple inches on the ground when I hit -20. This has me thinking if we could have threatened the all time low with a foot or more. 

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow.... Oh, and 18z GEFS is amazing. Block reorganizes quickly Day 8-9 right over the sweet spot with great amplification. A very prolonged cold wave, especially backdoor cold/low level arctic air. Colder runs ahead and people need to get ready for historic cold. It's coming. MBG.

00z GFS in 3 hours 10 minutes

Colder runs ahead...? 

Lol we already have runs in the teens and single digits... how low can we go?

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25 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Bummer we are going to lose most if not all our snowpack in Spokane thru tomorrow.  Hopeful the snow showers starting xmas eve get another good layer down before the arctic blast rolls in

We have a chance of snow between Friday and Sunday. This isn't a strong push, so there is a better shot at snow. With situations like this, surprises can show up that are not shown in the forecast models. Right now, I feel like Spokane will pick up between 2-5 inches of snow between Friday and Sunday.

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15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve been working all afternoon on trying to fuse together a cheap knock off graphite snow shovel shaft. Hasn’t gone well.

That and I updated my life insurance policy. I’ve seen The Day After Tomorrow so I know what happens when you mistakenly walk outside and breathe in the upcoming air.

How is the sense of smell?

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am assembling the gas cans to take in tomorrow to fill for the generator. Good thing I have been saving those Fred Meyer gas rewards points!

It’s beneficial knowing this was coming over the last 11 months. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The ECMWF is unquestionably cold enough for snow on Christmas afternoon with 925s at -3.  Looks like plenty of moisture around for Christmas night.  Then you have potential for typical and atypical c-zones, potential for moisture training off the Olympics in unexpected ways, and other things that could create surprises.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro looks good. Little more here , little less there

86AAE32B-7827-4DB9-96CB-9CD4D91ADD6D.jpeg

And that doesn't encompass the entire period that is likely to have snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.gif.fc8dcf9ec6b51dd308c382cfcc85b886.gif

I guess the CPC computer crashed on this 8-14 day run.

image.gif.e711263e6aa88217667a0ed36f907d0c.gif

Devastating trendz. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is unquestionably cold enough for snow on Christmas afternoon with 925s at -3.  Looks like plenty of moisture around for Christmas night.  Then you have potential for typical and atypical c-zones, potential for moisture training off the Olympics in unexpected ways, and other things that could create surprises.

Going to be fun watching this thing progress from north to south. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands
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