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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think Saturday PM could definitely havbe some shadowing issues. Most models seem to be showing enhancement Sunday as the really cold air swings out over the Pacific and rolls back in. I think Shadowing may become less of an issue for a time. 

There should be at least some banding with more of a convective property to things. I can see Sunday having some decent graupel accumulations here at the peasant elevations.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm telling you guys...the way the Arctic front gets hung up on the models says the Central Puget Sound will have a decent amount of snow.  The models have been trending better on that in fact.

I agree. This is exactly the kind of pattern where we tend to get more snow than modeled along that hung up arctic boundary. Amounts will certainly vary a lot and there will probably be places that get very little snow, but I think most of the Sound will end up getting 2-4” between Saturday evening and Monday morning. The lucky ones will almost certainly get over 6”.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

the Hedge is real

 

Kxly going with highs around 15 next mid next week lows -1.   models would suggest of possible sub zero high next week.  probably meet in middle with high single digit highs i'm guessing

I'd say highs of 10°F-20°F from Monday through Friday at KGEG. The 850 mb temperatures aren't really that cold.

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8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I agree. This is exactly the kind of pattern where we tend to get more snow than modeled along that hung up arctic boundary. Amounts will certainly vary a lot and there will probably be places that get very little snow, but I think most of the Sound will end up getting 2-4” between Saturday evening and Monday morning. The lucky ones will almost certainly get over 6”.

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see some 12-14 inch totals. The last trough was parked over the area for 2 days produced 2 inches of rain around here. Going to be fun for sure.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Almost GFS time....

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

ICON has some really heavy snow over the central sound during the day Sunday.... Bullseye's my house!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

East valley might do better with upsloping? For example, southerlies with DPs in the upper 20s and temps at 32F after Kalapuya downsloping. Compression up against the Coburg Hills from there. Could be some bands that hang up here in the SE valley.

You should be in a decent spot this weekend relative to most of the valley. Rule of thumb is that the closer to the Cascades you are in the valley, the better you'll do in an onshore flow setup.

Just for fun, the 00z NAM output shows EUG at 32 with decent precip rates on Saturday evening. Looks like a pretty decent chance you'll see your first technically white Christmas.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Keug.txt

image.png.6d1b947c2275ad26575cc9fa9fd3a912.png

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Joanne The Scammer Running GIF by Super Deluxe

00z GFS is running!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I hope Western Washington and Western Oregon get buried, and the Weather Channel is forced to retire a winter storm name.

Do they do storm names for the PNW?

I thought they only named the ones that bury Atlanta with an inch and completely devastate their infrastructure.

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1 minute ago, Chief77 said:

Just want to induce myself my name is Chris I’m from the East Coast specifically just north of Philly just wanted to wish you guys good luck I hope you guys get buried with snow I believe this will be going down in history books for you guys

Nice to see an east coaster who’s not salty about us getting a nice winter event

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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trend-gfs-2021122300-f030.500h_anom.na.gif

Pretty sharp improvement in the home stretch.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 minute ago, overcast said:

I'm a longtime forum lurker jumping on the bandwagon; the emotional swings these arctic events trigger on this forum are so fun and entertaining, and it's great to see models trending right and holding tight as we approach the main event.

It looks like the south sound could do quite well in this pattern. I don't expect a full transition to snow in the Puyallup Valley until Christmas night but Sunday and beyond look incredible for the swamp. This WILL be a once in a generation event and hopefully be a proportionate response to June's heatwave. Lock it in!

You used to post as John, right?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

48/38 today with rain showers at times and south winds. Maybe the warmest day for the next few weeks or longer

Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a stretch of 10-14 days consecutively below 40 with quite a few sub freezing highs. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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trend-gfs-2021122300-f045.500h_anom.na.gif

I can't find anything to complain about this run. Improvements literally everywhere. Big cave to the Euro.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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4 minutes ago, overcast said:

I'm a longtime forum lurker jumping on the bandwagon; the emotional swings these arctic events trigger on this forum are so fun and entertaining, and it's great to see models trending right and holding tight as we approach the main event.

It looks like the south sound could do quite well in this pattern. I don't expect a full transition to snow in the Puyallup Valley until Christmas night but Sunday and beyond look incredible for the swamp. This WILL be a once in a generation event and hopefully be a proportionate response to June's heatwave. Lock it in!

I just found out about this site the other day and I feel the same way!

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Chief77 said:

Just want to induce myself my name is Chris I’m from the East Coast specifically just north of Philly just wanted to wish you guys good luck I hope you guys get buried with snow I believe this will be going down in history books for you guys

Hey what town are you from? My dad grew up in Pennsauken which I guess isn't exactly the same area as you maybe.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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Nice snow event on the ICON for the Willamette Valley on Tuesday. Then more cold air pours in. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Moderate snow for much of the Willamette Valley. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png

Nice slider at the end, this one should nail W. Washington too. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands
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