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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

That's what happened in Feb 2011. The difference between 0 and 12"+ was less than 20 miles in some places, very spotty but substantial amounts where it did work out

In February 2011 we had 7” of snow…like a dusting on the south side of town just 5 miles away. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

They’ll probably issue one sometime tomorrow afternoon. Usually it’s about 24 highs out. Pretty likely it snows Christmas night and Boxing Day. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the advisory criteria allows for issuing one more than 24hrs out. I could be wrong though. 

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1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the advisory criteria allows for issuing one more than 24hrs out. I could be wrong though. 

I’m not sure if there’s a criteria or not…just typical they wait until the day before before issuing it.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m not sure if there’s a criteria or not…just typical they wait until the day before before issuing it.

Found it! https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf

 

Quote

Winter Weather Advisories are issued for events that have a high likelihood of occurrence, are imminent, or are already occurring. However, advisories are issued for wintry weather that creates a considerable inconvenience while not posing an immediate or direct threat to life or property, nor a widespread disruption of commerce. Winter Weather Advisories are usually issued in the period of 12 to 24 hours before the storm starts, and occasionally beyond that as much as 36 hours before the storm moves into the region.

 

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11 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I think it's too soon.  These things can absolutely bust.  Maybe they don't want to freak people out who are planning to travel the state for Christmas?

On the flip side, it might be wise to at least mention it and provide an outlook for when they might issue a warning.

They don't want to get burnt.

I disagree. Every ensemble/op is on board for snow, some serious. If thing thing busts, decommission every model cause I'll lose all trust. 

If they get burned, the sobeit. They need to get the word out and discuss the possibilities. Either that or have their website redirect to here. 

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7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I disagree. Every ensemble/op is on board for snow, some serious. If thing thing busts, decommission every model cause I'll lose all trust. 

If they get burned, the sobeit. They need to get the word out and discuss the possibilities. Either that or have their website redirect to here. 

I understand but that's not how they operate at Seattle NWS.

I expect, as another poster posted a few minutes ago, they will come out with more details and perhaps an advisory tomorrow late in the day.

This could still bust.  It's happened before.  Then they just sit back and sip on their coffee and smile.

They could care less about cold and snow at the Seattle NWS.  Probably a bunch of global warming believers running that office.

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Roll call! It's a pretty big night, do I have everyone here?

@DJ Droppin@Meatyorologist@hawkstwelve@RentonHillTC@Brian_in_Leavenworth@BLI snowman@Phishy Wx@Phil@Christensen87@snow_wizard@Deweydog@Cloud@GHweatherChris @The Swamp @iFred

And I don't care of your on vacay!

@TT-SEA@TacomaWaWx

Lets go boys, time to make history! 

 

Present

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1 minute ago, The Swamp said:

I understand but that's not how they operate at Seattle NWS.

I expect, as another poster posted a few minutes ago, they will come out with more details and perhaps an advisory tomorrow late in the day.

This could still bust.  It's happened before.  Then they just sit back and sip on their coffee and smile.

They could care less about cold and snow at the Seattle NWS.  Probably a bunch of global warming believers running that office.

More like sitting back, sipping coffee, and going, "LOL but climatology."

They absolutely do not believe the extreme model runs. They have weather forecasting PTSD. 

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Just now, KingstonWX said:

More like sitting back, sipping coffee, and going, "LOL but climatology."

They absolutely do not believe the extreme model runs. They have weather forecasting PTSD. 

Oh and I should add to this, the PTSD works both ways. If they forecast 2" and we get 12", then next time a model paints a picture of snow, they will go to the opposite extreme, forecast 8" and have it end up being a dusting.

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Portland is looking like the big loser in the snow department at this moment. We’ll see how it shakes out. I’m thinking <=2” total by the time we dry out Monday morning. 

I wouldn't say this at all.  The potential exists for a decent dusting of snow.

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4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Roll call! It's a pretty big night, do I have everyone here?

@DJ Droppin@Meatyorologist@hawkstwelve@RentonHillTC@Brian_in_Leavenworth@BLI snowman@Phishy Wx@Phil@Christensen87@snow_wizard@Deweydog@Cloud@GHweatherChris @The Swamp @iFred

And I don't care of your on vacay!

@TT-SEA@TacomaWaWx

Lets go boys, time to make history! 

 

Not on the list, but present. 

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4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Roll call! It's a pretty big night, do I have everyone here?

@DJ Droppin@Meatyorologist@hawkstwelve@RentonHillTC@Brian_in_Leavenworth@BLI snowman@Phishy Wx@Phil@Christensen87@snow_wizard@Deweydog@Cloud@GHweatherChris @The Swamp @iFred

And I don't care of your on vacay!

@TT-SEA@TacomaWaWx

Lets go boys, time to make history! 

 

Been here since late 08. Not going anywhere. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Roll call! It's a pretty big night, do I have everyone here?

@DJ Droppin@Meatyorologist@hawkstwelve@RentonHillTC@Brian_in_Leavenworth@BLI snowman@Phishy Wx@Phil@Christensen87@snow_wizard@Deweydog@Cloud@GHweatherChris @The Swamp @iFred

And I don't care of your on vacay!

@TT-SEA@TacomaWaWx

Lets go boys, time to make history! 

 

You could include the newbie too 😉

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

NWS Spokane has issued a WSW for areas North of Spokane and Coeur d'Alene. 10-20 inches of snow are expected by Monday with locally higher amounts.

I think we have a good shot at some decent convective snow showers over the next few days even in the valley

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6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Roll call! It's a pretty big night, do I have everyone here?

@DJ Droppin@Meatyorologist@hawkstwelve@RentonHillTC@Brian_in_Leavenworth@BLI snowman@Phishy Wx@Phil@Christensen87@snow_wizard@Deweydog@Cloud@GHweatherChris @The Swamp @iFred

And I don't care of your on vacay!

@TT-SEA@TacomaWaWx

Lets go boys, time to make history! 

 

image.gif.72869e0c1d40b50d5a5da5e5a7272c01.gif

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Massive night incoming!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Run Running GIF

00z GFS running!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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trend-gfs-2021122400-f015.500h_anom.na.gif

Arctic air further SW, again!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Roll call! It's a pretty big night, do I have everyone here?

@DJ Droppin@Meatyorologist@hawkstwelve@RentonHillTC@Brian_in_Leavenworth@BLI snowman@Phishy Wx@Phil@Christensen87@snow_wizard@Deweydog@Cloud@GHweatherChris @The Swamp @iFred @Bryant@MR.SNOWMIZER@gusky

And I don't care of your on vacay!

@TT-SEA@TacomaWaWx

Lets go boys, time to make history! 

PS: Sorry if I missed anyone! 

I'm ready! ☃️

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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Portland is looking like the big loser in the snow department at this moment. We’ll see how it shakes out. I’m thinking <=2” total by the time we dry out Monday morning. 

This entire event is going to be reduced to flurries in the air and just a bit colder than normal for us here in the Portland region. I'm not being cranky and negative.....I truly believe that's what will happen. It happens to someone during every cold setup and this feels like our turn to be disappointed. Personally, I am planning on zilch so I'm just going to focus on family and friends for the holidays. This will probably be my last check of the forums until after the new year. I hope everyone else gets buried in snow!!

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36 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Same here. I'm just south of Kingston, near the park, so my property is literally on the zone border. For every hood canal advisory, half my property is included and the other half isn't. I get so tired of explaining to people that the advisory isn't for us even though it popped up on your phone and seems to cover your house. 

Zone Boundaries are not always that great. Mine at 1850 ft is the same as a city 1100 ft lower than mine. Often they get warnings when the zone across the river (which matches theirs better) will not have any.

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trend-gfs-2021122400-f054.500h_anom.na.gif

-NAO is improved and trough is digging deeper and further offshore. PV is closer too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands
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