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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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Still looks cold for western Oregon!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

I forgot that this forum is dominated by Seattle folks that do not care about Oregon, it’s why I mostly lurk.

We need more people from Oregon to speak up as it seems there are 4:5 PDX to SEA users, but during the winter the participation swings to the north. I'll be cutting a new thread for just observations and depending on how many people from the PDX area post, we may just have split storm threads going forward.

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What do people think about this run? 11 inches for this coming system isn't reasonable, right?

 

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

To be fair to the NWS SEA, although yes they can be annoyingly conservative when it comes to snow, this is a very difficult forecast. Not only are you contending with timing the cold air for switchover but also the convective and banding nature this event might be. Models are still differing on snow amounts less than 36 hours out.

All runs have shown there will certainly be snow for the Puget Sound region though.  Worst case scenario has it cold enough for snow by late afternoon on Christmas.  Lots of moisture after that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

He’s just talking tomorrow and earlier

 

I’m liking the consistency the models seem to be showing with that enhancement just se of Seattle. Feb 21 it was showing something similar but further north of seattle. 

He literally said in that blurb 'with above-freezing air temperatures within the lowest few thousand feet... over the next few days.'

The guy may be very knowledgeable but unless he has some super secretive model that shows something no other model shows, that statement is just categorically false. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah obviously I’m really rooting for snow hard so I might be biased against what he said…but it seems like it’s looking pretty decent for lots of people to score some snow atleast on Christmas night. 

To be fair it seems like his discussion was more focused on the weather leading up to Christmas and earlier on the day of Christmas which has always been fairly marginal looking.  These things always start out slow and people start freaking out but eventually everything switches over and we get our snow. 

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My wife just got home from north Everett, was “slushy snow” down there and when she got off at our exit the snow was sticking to the road. Take that Cliff Mass. Light snow here at home. 33. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ya?

There’s no denying he’s pretty knowledgeable. However there’s a lot of people on here who know tons of stuff. I’ve honestly learned more here on this forum than anywhere.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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2 minutes ago, gusky said:

What do people think about this run? 11 inches for this coming system isn't reasonable, right?

 

Some convection is likely, good moisture feed, convergence, Arctic air / marine air interaction.  That spells a lot of snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

All runs have shown there will certainly be snow for the Puget Sound region though.  Worst case scenario has it cold enough for snow by late afternoon on Christmas.  Lots of moisture after that.

I agree and think they should have a Special Weather Statement out at least covering the possibilities and for sure mentioning the upcoming cold. I was just trying to give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to specific winter weather headlines this far out.

If models continue to look this snowy by 18z runs tomorrow, I'm sure we will see something.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Sorry there's so many of us I was trying real hard to forget anyone :(

I'm so offended right now!

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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Just hoping for a dry day on Wednesday so we can get into SeaTac and get home and dig out and settle in for a snowy New Years weekend.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

To be fair it seems like his discussion was more focused on the weather leading up to Christmas and earlier on the day of Christmas which has always been fairly marginal looking.  These things always start out slow and people start freaking out but eventually everything switches over and we get our snow. 

Slow is actually good in a case like this.  Gives more time for snow to happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

I forgot that this forum is dominated by Seattle folks that do not care about Oregon, it’s why I mostly lurk.

I would say that is true for a decent number of forum posters. But there are definitely a few that aren't like that and have kindly posted Oregon maps and have tried to wishcast up some snow for us.

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gfs-seattle-us-475n-1225 (3).png

GFS OP a warm outlier at the 850 level thru the morning of the 28th

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s no denying he’s pretty knowledgeable. However there’s a lot of people on here who know tons of stuff. I’ve honestly learned more here on this forum than anywhere.

He's smart. Is he a good forecaster? No comment.  I'd put the knowledge of some of our members up against any met around.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My wife just got home from north Everett, was “slushy snow” down there and when she got off at our exit the snow was sticking to the road. Take that Cliff Mass. Light snow here at home. 33. 

I had a feeling there would be some really early stuff...off and on at least.  Could happen just about anywhere over the next 24 hours.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

CFS is still awesome! 

In a case like this I think a lower res model may handle things better sometimes...at least as far as the big picture is concerned.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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8 minutes ago, gusky said:

What do people think about this run? 11 inches for this coming system isn't reasonable, right?

 

GFS thinks 11 inches, NWS thinks trace to 1 inch. I say lets chop it near the middle and shoot for 5 to 6. That is fallen snow, for depth maybe 3-5.

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9 minutes ago, iFred said:

We need more people from Oregon to speak up as it seems there are 4:5 PDX to SEA users, but during the winter the participation swings to the north. I'll be cutting a new thread for just observations and depending on how many people from the PDX area post, we may just have split storm threads going forward.

I don't post very often, but I do think this is a bad idea. Many of the forum members here have interacted with others from all over the PNW for years. It'll probably kill off the Oregon peeps if we are isolated.

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

He literally said in that blurb 'with above-freezing air temperatures within the lowest few thousand feet... over the next few days.'

The guy may be very knowledgeable but unless he has some super secretive model that shows something no other model shows, that statement is just categorically false. 

Ya I agree with you on his verbiage being a little too negative.  He tends to not want to change his mind and I think he mentioned the other day that he didn’t think this would be much in the way of snow.  I think he is banking on the fact that the models will  overperform on the snow most of the time because of the elevation bleeding and counting falling snow as sticking snow. 

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Plenty of opportunities for all on all model runs tonight.

00z GFS was indeed kinda eh snow wise for Portland-south this week, but then you realize that it's also the coldest model now at the surface with the initial shot and is at odds again with the GEM/UKMET on the midweek period. That period feels ripe for surprises and possible deformation zone activity. In all likelihood the less bitterly cold solution will win out, which would favor a closer brush-by for western OR with that coastal energy and a lot more lift than shown on the GFS.

It is starting to look more like a traditional, slower 21st century arctic airmass now. Which would likely favor juicier frontal boundaries.

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Just now, Dave said:

I don't post very often, but I do think this is a bad idea. Many of the forum members here have interacted with others from all over the PNW for years. It'll probably kill off the Oregon peeps if we are isolated.

I think the mix from the region is fun. I like hearing about stuff happening in Oregon. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya I agree with you on his verbiage being a little too negative.  He tends to not want to change his mind and I think he mentioned the other day that he didn’t think this would be much in the way of snow.  I think he is banking on the fact that the models will  overperform on the snow most of the time because of the elevation bleeding and counting falling snow as sticking snow. 

Yeah I think his ego is a little large...

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Now that I think about it, this run wasn't all that bad for Portland. With the GEM and UKMET going for juicier midweek systems and all models still staying cold-- there are still several possibilities.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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This could be the most amazing stretch of our lives, and kicking off on Christmas... wow. 

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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925mb temps never go above freezing for the entire GFS.  Amazing!  Weak offshore flow is maintained nearly the entire time.  That will keep the low level air dry / cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Here it comes!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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I don't think anyone should be making a snow forecast with a lot of confidence at this point, not even Cliff.  Odd thing about his snow depth model.  It shows my area with less than 5 inches of depth by the end of the weekend, yet I already have over a foot now.  Some parts of town are close to 15 inches.  So how good can that model be?

I suppose for areas that don't have snow now, maybe it is a bit more useful now.  

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  • iFred changed the title to PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands
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