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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

lol average highs this time of year are in the mid 40s, and winter snowfall averages around 6" for most near sea level

This upcoming event looks to drop 4-12" for most, and widespread subfreezing highs, with locally much colder and snowier weather. Hard to be anything but excited right now.

I know I sound hypocritical because I was freaking out the other day over model trends, but that was b/c at the time they were trending worse in the 80-100hr range. Now the closer range is trending better almost every run in terms of cold and snow. "whittling down" the 100-150hr period still means snow chances and highs around 27-35. And keep in mind that being in the bullseye around hr 150 means that the route to get to that point is unlikely.

Remember, good trends in the short term generally beget good trends in the long term. Just give it time. Euro and GFS are very, very close to a solid snowfall pattern hr100-150.

Good way to put it. Don't love how much the EURO "neutered" the cold down here (and by neutered, I mean shifting our lows from the teens into the low 20s) but I'm hoping that this weekend will give us some nice snowcover in spots and maybe things will trend a bit colder. 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

A tale of two events here. January 2020 we completely wasted a -10c midwinter airmass after almost everything that could go wrong for us did and the building crumbled on the models one brick at a time. February 2021 we had to thread the needle almost perfectly but scored a massive snow thump on what turned out to almost entirely be a low level event.

This event is extremely likely to fall somewhere in the middle of those, which I am fine with.

Those are poor comparisons to this event. Blocking was piss poor both those snow events and there was hardly any forcing. Solid NPAC and -NAO blocking this go around. Not saying there will be widespread subzero lows and ten feet of hoarfrost but it definitely looks a lot better than either of those two years.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Had to go AFK and phone...  wasn't able to watch the run as it rolled out but catching up now. Not really the best but at the same time, I'm not too worried yet... especially when it's 100-120+ hours out. The 00 suite hasn't exactly been model of consistency either. 

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Real talk.

Most of us know this will change again in twelve hours, and some of us know that given the past 2-3 years, the skill of the GFS and Euro is pretty similar inside five days. A few of us remember how the GFS and the NAM have out performed in situations where the Euro was quick to revert to the mean (Feb 2019 and Jun 2021). It doesn't mean that the Euro or the EPS should be discounted, but a single run or even a couple runs in a row, do not a trend make.

Then there is Feb 2021 and 2019, in both instances with multi day snow events in the Puget Sound region, and both instance where the Euro pulled back one day, even doing so for a couple runs in a row (iirc, it was how the block wasn't driving the trough deep enough, and we thought it meant upper 30s at best). The UKie and GEM were on board, then the GFS, then we lost the UKie a couple days out, but the NAM and ICON double downed, then the Euro was on board only a day or two, then we lost the GFS but then it came back. It waffled between extreme and that climo expectation that someone would condescendingly would always point out, but it found something closer to a memorable event.

To me, this event feels like the first of a few, provided that the Euro isn't picking up on something that would deform or displace the block (its 00z data on Christmas Eve, it probably isn't). We've seen the 12z go in strong for multiple days, and the 00z play weak, so something is up with the initialization. Then are the months of upper level models that have driven this consensus that DJF in this area would be cold and the driver of it would be Pacific blocking. So far, that is playing out as expected.

To the new people here and to the handful of old timers, if anyone has an issue with someone getting emotionally invested, someone being enthusiastic about an outcome, someone jumping up and down over the final snow depth frame of a 16 day forecast, or with how non professionals are using professional data sets wish cast their own solutions, I have one request of you:

Kindly send me a DM with your views so that I may personally tell you to **** off and delete your account.

I want people to enjoy the weather and forecasting it in the ways that they want to. Sure, I personally might get annoyed with some people who seemingly love weather and conditions that I abhor, but I do enjoy their enthusiasm in this hobby. This should be a place where the professionals can let their hair down (probably under pseudonyms), and mix with the armchair experts, the curious, and the 12 year old hoping for an ice storm.

Couldn't have said it better myself (obviously). And to the last part, I apologize if my message came across wrong; I have no problem with run-to-run emotional changes, I'm in the same boat as those people. I love that this forum is a safe place for people to say how they feel about the runs. I recognize that I'm new and don't know everything (or really most things), and in the end, I defer to the experts here.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

looks like its tripping balls

What's weirder is it's been doing this all day, I've been watching it develop.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Those are poor comparisons to this event. Blocking was piss poor both those snow events and there was hardly any forcing. Solid NPAC and -NAO blocking this go around. Not saying there will be widespread subzero lows and ten feet of hoarfrost but it definitely looks a lot better than either of those two years.

IF this neutered version is in fact the new reality, the post mortem on this will be the unusual nature of trying to introduce a major Arctic outbreak into an aging 160w block. There just aren’t too many examples of that out there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

I’m still so confused as to how there’s not even a statement for Western WA about the upcoming pattern change. 

I think you're way too hung up on why the NWS don't send out statements. I mean, they made a 5 tweets thread on the cold today, so I don't know what else is there to be said. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

I think you're way too hung up on why the NWS don't send out statements. I mean, they made a 5 tweets thread on the cold today, so I don't know what else is there to be said. 

I think the issuance of any statement is confirmation for him that an event is coming.  He's just excited.  No big deal for me.  Now where is my street light?

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

IF this neutered version is in fact the new reality, the post mortem on this will be the unusual nature of trying to introduce a major Arctic outbreak into an aging 160w block. There just aren’t too many examples of that out there.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png

Call me insane but when did we start calling this "neutered"?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png

Call me insane but when did we start calling this "neutered"?

Not neutered per se on the GFS, but those EURO temps are certainly neutered compared to what they were only a few runs ago.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, ArcticSnow said:

Anyone know when the next GFS rolls out? Considering sleeping but might hold out till that.

Around 1:40 AM

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Not neutered per se on the GFS, but those EURO temps are certainly neutered compared to what they were only a few runs ago.

Euro is probably running too warm. Turns the Puget Sound into the Adriatic Sea and keeps the Tri-Cities above freezing for an extra 6 hours despite NW winds and thickness values below 516dm.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

HRRR consistency has been catching my eye today

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Mark thinks 1-2 inches is likely for most people in PDX and WV. His official forecast is now going for T-3 inches.

I would happily take and enjoy that along with the impressively cold days early next week. Any prolonged cold and overrunning later would just be a bonus if it happens at all.

image.thumb.png.da2b6088f7b93251c71811b1cd8fa1e0.png

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Arctic front itself will likely be delayed (climo) but that shouldn't really matter since freezing levels crash to sea level around the turn to midnight Christmas night via CAA wrapping around the low. Euro has DP's in the upper 20s by 06z Monday (10pm Christmas day)

Also that "mild" euro run still shows afternoon temps Boxing day in the low 20s. Low temps in the single digits away from water.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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19 minutes ago, gusky said:

So... are we just not gonna talk about what the HRRR has been doing? 

hrrr1.gif

Not big on the HRRR for too long into the future. It's more or less a glorified future radar that should only be used for a few hours out at most.

It's given too much stock in the wawx community and other places, IMO. I've found if it can't currently see what it's trying to project, it won't really do all that great. Maybe I'm wrong and it's actually a fantastic model but I've personally never witnessed it.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png

Call me insane but when did we start calling this "neutered"?

The initial shortwave is an intense one, but there has been a short term shift to a more of a progressive wave as it ejects. If that’s the case, the tap just isn’t there for an intense cold snap.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not big on the HRRR for too long into the future. It's more or less a glorified future radar that should only be used for a few hours out at most.

It's given too much stock in the wawx community and other places, IMO. I've found if it can't currently see what it's trying to project, it won't really do all that great. Maybe I'm wrong and it's actually a fantastic model but I've personally never witnessed it.

Either way I appreciate the input!

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Arctic front itself will likely be delayed (climo) but that shouldn't really matter since freezing levels crash to sea level around the turn to midnight Christmas night via CAA wrapping around the low. Euro has DP's in the upper 20s by 06z Monday (10pm Christmas day)

Also that "mild" euro run still shows afternoon temps Boxing day in the low 20s. Low temps in the single digits away from water.

I noticed that the ECMWF showed snow well south of the arctic boundary on Sunday... its a situation of cold turning colder.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Those are poor comparisons to this event. Blocking was piss poor both those snow events and there was hardly any forcing. Solid NPAC and -NAO blocking this go around. Not saying there will be widespread subzero lows and ten feet of hoarfrost but it definitely looks a lot better than either of those two years.

Blocking was definitely there in February, just in an uncharacteristic position for the West Coast to succeed. But you had 564dm heights well into Nunavut with that. That thing was just such a low level CAA monster that it wrapped all the way around the block enough to say hi to us.

Unfortunately the Euro really is moving towards a pretty fleeting sweet spot setup at 500mb. The block pretty quickly skimps down before the complete retrograde by New Years. The forcing is still there to get us arctic air, but it's looking decidedly more like a rather routine event from an upper level standpoint..

The big tangible difference from the last two years is that we won't have an undercutting STJ to screw with us anytime soon, so we're going to stay on the chilly to cold side at the surface regardless of the exact fate of our North Pacific friend.

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Upward snowfall trend on both GEFS and EPS tonight... y'all can say what you want but I see nothing but improvements today.1640304000-vv9kUlTR4hQ.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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trend-gfs-2021122400-f072.500h_anom.na.gif

"Fleeting" "Negative trends"

 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Jaya...

 

 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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trend-ecmwf-2021122400-f072.500h_anom.na.gif

We can play this game with the Euro, too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I noticed that the ECMWF showed snow well south of the arctic boundary on Sunday... its a situation of cold turning colder.   

It looked good for the WV, just not PDX. Maybe that’s all phantom snow though. I didn’t dig to deep into the details. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

trend-gfs-2021122400-f072.500h_anom.na.gif

"Fleeting" "Negative trends"

 

 

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

trend-ecmwf-2021122400-f072.500h_anom.na.gif

We can play this game with the Euro, too.

The 00z Euro was pretty clearly a rather large step back in the upper levels even within 5-6 days. Not sure how one would manage to come to a different conclusion....

This is Monday at 10pm.

00zeuro.gif.ef56d9ac1102eb5c107b0337302a7a2c.gif

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