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PNW December 2021 Obs - Pt 3 - No Winter For Low Lands


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Merry Christmas Eve you weather geeks!

Looks like about 4" of snow here overnight. Still coming down so might pick up another inch or so. Currently 22F with about 10" on the ground.

607082359_ScreenShot2021-12-24at9_01_46AM.thumb.png.d5137a4fcc344a6cca7b4a7db66ed474.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Let’s face it. Sunriver isn’t seeing subzero. Gonna have to go to ID/MT someday.

The lowest temp I've ever observed was in Sunriver at -17F. The subzero notch in your belt is pretty useless IMO. Just enjoy Bachelor and hike around the snow covered Sunriver paths and find some sledding. Makes for a great time. I've done it a few times including when it was at least 30" deep. 

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40 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Do you believe the models?

Some do and some don't.

The models all this last week showed various amounts of snow around the sound that didn't  happen.

You DONT EVEN want to start s*** with someone like Brennan or Bryant.

 

They are old timers on this board going all the way back to TOFA forum boards (myself included).

 

Trust me, you DONT want "that" fight.

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49 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Man, every single model shows between 5-18” of snow for Whatcom County by Monday, and nobody is talking about it. I’m surprised there’s not a WSW or something out at this point. Do they not know from past experience with this area????

Yeah, I have no idea what they're thinking. There must be some reason that we're not seeing. The most recent forecast update from them actually cut the snow forecast for Skagit County in half.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw the 06z. Not sure why everyone was whining so much about it. Plenty of chilly air through the run. I guess this coming week has been watered down a little. To bad, but still looking at some real winter. 

coming from a guy who just said is getting 2-3 feet of snow in the next week?

The warming trend in the models have been pretty dramatic given how consistent all the models were only 1 day ago.

12z GFS showing a slop fest after this weekend for anyone south of Snohomish county.

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GFS 12z looks overdone Saturday morning and isn't supported by the higher resolution models which are relying on strong forcing through the dendritic growth zone to overcome boundary layer temperatures. The cold bias is really playing a factor here and things look more marginal than it shows. I do think snow will fall on Saturday in the W. WA lowlands but not where near the extent to which the GFS shows a dusting to 1-2 in especially at night. Better chances on Sunday with better dynamics as the Arctic front moves through.

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