2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[BrianJK]

MODS - I asked once before but didn't get a response...  Can a "block user" function be added so we have the ability block certain user(s) posts from being displayed?

[Tom]

MODS - I asked once before but didn't get a response...  Can a "block user" function be added so we have the ability block certain user(s) posts from being displayed?

I'll let you know as soon as I get some answers.  Will keep you posted.

[Geos]

Very nice update by light in the storm blog. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Discussing the pattern change happening.

 

Author put up a chart showing the weakening of the wind in the polar vortex.

 

[Tom]

Very nice update by light in the storm blog. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Discussing the pattern change happening.

 

Author put up a chart showing the weakening of the wind in the polar vortex.

 

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/zonal-winds-jan.png

Very interesting article as it mentions the winter of 1977-78.  The flip that is forecast to occur with the PNA later this month is indeed impressive and doesn't happen often, but when it does, we all know what history has been written in the past.

 

 

 

The reversal of the RNA pattern / -PNA into a predominately +PNA regime is occurring essentially in tandem with similar past El Nino episodes. The PNA in 1977, 1957, and 1965 shifted from negative to positive (in a sustained fashion) in the first week of January. This year should feature that transition around New Year’s Day, which is not unexpected given the available statistics and tropospheric pattern progression.

[OKwx2k4]

That's very interesting guys. Going to give it a read when I get a chance.

[Tom]

CanSIPS still advertising a wild looking February for much of the nation from the Rockies to the East...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016010100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016010100/cansips_z500a_us_1.png

 

MSLP anomaly indicating a good probability of a continuation that the LRC's storm track should continue but may shift farther S/SE in time as blocking takes over the pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016010100/cansips_mslpa_us_1.png

[OKwx2k4]

Solid points and definitely agree.

[Tom]

Well, well, well...AER just updated their Jan-Mar Temp Forecast...very similar look to the JAMSTEC model...NW NAMER torches, the cold will spill south/east into the lower 48.  I think someone on here had concerns about how the SE can get so cold while Canada torches...well, here is how...cross Polar Flow.  I think this is a great illustration of where the pattern is heading and the presence of the Alaskan ridge along with the Greenland Block look solid.

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/tfcstJFM16_model_degC_NH.png

[Maxim]

LOL, if you're gonna post the cansips, then I'll go ahead and throw in the CFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160102.201602.gif

[Tom]

LOL, if you're gonna post the cansips, then I'll go ahead and throw in the CFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160102.201602.gif

LOL...ok...I'm going to be waiting for the mid month Torch to show up in January...I'm going to joyfully wait and see how this model starts flipping colder as time goes on...

 

I'd put more money on AER's forecast than anything...they called the PV begin to weaken weeks in advance when there were no models showing it until the 2nd week in December.

[gosaints]

LOL...ok...I'm going to be waiting for the mid month Torch to show up in January...I'm going to joyfully wait and see how this model starts flipping colder as time goes on...

 

I'd put more money on AER's forecast than anything...they called the PV begin to weaken weeks in advance when there were no models showing it until the 2nd week in December.

Vortex still well intact...

[Tom]

Vortex still well intact...

It's going to weaken farther as we move along this month.  It's like a boxer in a ring taking a hit from his opponent...the fight is still young.

[gosaints]

It's going to weaken farther as we move along this month. It's like a boxer in a ring taking a hit from his opponent...the fight is still young.

Its one strong boxer. maybe success sometime later in february on that front.

[Tom]

SST's in the N PAC are heading towards the Jan-Mar Analogs.  Waters continue to cool off north of Hawaii and south of the Aleutians while the waters are still above normal near NW NAMER coastline.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Significant cooling just north of Hawaii where the main trough will set up going forward...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Watch the GEFS weakness in the long range while all the other global models seem to be having a better handle on it.

[Tom]

Recent January run of the NASA model for Feb-Apr...Spring is not coming early this year...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

[gosaints]

Recent January run of the NASA model for Feb-Apr...Spring is not coming early this year...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

Doesnt that show average in your backyard. So its not.coming early its coming normal according to that

[Tom]

Doesnt that show average in your backyard. So its not.coming early its coming normal according to that

Yup, but I bet April is the warm month that off set's the temps.  Feb/Mar look like they will be the colder months around here.

[gosaints]

Yup, but I bet April is the warm month that off set's the temps. Feb/Mar look like they will be the colder months around here.

Yes I agree