2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[Tom]

It's that time of year again...who's ready for some Snow???  While Postseason Baseball is in session and Hockey season begins, I always get excited this time of year when the seasons begin to change and my favorite time of year is around the corner...Winter!

 

I've been reviewing various climate models and except for the CFSv2, the majority of them are signing the same tune.  Knowing the CFSv2's bias, I believe as we get closer to December the model will correct its typical errors.  We'll just have to see how it plays out.

 

The LRC is just beginning to unfold so I don't want to get to detailed as to where I believe the worst of winter will be or where the storm track will end up transpiring.  What we can do is use some of the modeling that we have in our arsenal and try to figure that out.

 

Below you will find the last ensemble run of the CFSv2 for the next 45 days which will basically cover the 1st cycle of the LRC.  The majority of this precip falls from the last 10 days of October through Nov 21st.  I believe once we begin to see the significant cooling which is coming around mid month, the jet will begin to energize and shift south causing storminess.  All of us would like to see some wound up systems.  Let's see if we have the blocking and systems in place to create a stormy pattern.

 

Will we get a 3-Peat of warm waters in the NE PAC that will create that wavy jet stream tugging down arctic air???  Is the Modiki El Nino going to fuel the southern branch???  Where will the long term long-wave troughs and ridges set up this Winter???  Still to early to be exact but some respected models say we may have an interesting Winter from the Plains to the Lakes.  This time, I think the Plains will have their fair share of Winter weather.

 

Let's Discuss!

 

 

 

[james1976]

Nice bullseye for Iowa in that model! Make it verify!

[Geos]

New CFS for early winter showing the warmth sucking itself up further northward. Almost predicting normal temperature near I-80.

 

 

Then colder for DJF.

 

 

Then the cold anomaly expands further.

 

And levels off towards Spring.

 

[Tom]

New CFS for early winter showing the warmth sucking itself up further northward. Almost predicting normal temperature near I-80.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

Then colder for DJF.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

Then the cold anomaly expands further.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

And levels off towards Spring.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season4.png

Geeze, that J-M period looks text book nasty!  Yup, another Winter that lasts into Spring on the way.  I learned that Modiki El Nino Winters usually have an end game in late March/April.

BTW, where do you get those NASA models?  I tried searching but with no luck.

[Geos]

Geeze, that J-M period looks text book nasty!  Yup, another Winter that lasts into Spring on the way.  I learned that Modiki El Nino Winters usually have an end game in late March/April.

BTW, where do you get those NASA models?  I tried searching but with no luck.

 

Grabbed it from a post on AMwx, then I found it here.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usNASAtmp2mSeas.html

[OKwx2k4]

It's that time of year again...who's ready for some Snow??? While Postseason Baseball is in session and Hockey season begins, I always get excited this time of year when the seasons begin to change and my favorite time of year is around the corner...Winter!

 

I've been reviewing various climate models and except for the CFSv2, the majority of them are signing the same tune. Knowing the CFSv2's bias, I believe as we get closer to December the model will correct its typical errors. We'll just have to see how it plays out.

 

The LRC is just beginning to unfold so I don't want to get to detailed as to where I believe the worst of winter will be or where the storm track will end up transpiring. What we can do is use some of the modeling that we have in our arsenal and try to figure that out.

 

Below you will find the last ensemble run of the CFSv2 for the next 45 days which will basically cover the 1st cycle of the LRC. The majority of this precip falls from the last 10 days of October through Nov 21st. I believe once we begin to see the significant cooling which is coming around mid month, the jet will begin to energize and shift south causing storminess. All of us would like to see some wound up systems. Let's see if we have the blocking and systems in place to create a stormy pattern.

 

Will we get a 3-Peat of warm waters in the NE PAC that will create that wavy jet stream tugging down arctic air??? Is the Modiki El Nino going to fuel the southern branch??? Where will the long term long-wave troughs and ridges set up this Winter??? Still to early to be exact but some respected models say we may have an interesting Winter from the Plains to the Lakes. This time, I think the Plains will have their fair share of Winter weather.

 

Let's Discuss!

Let's repeat that precip pattern in mid-late December at about 28 degrees please. I'm ready for a long hard winter. Most definitely my favorite time of year also.

[gosaints]

I am on board with the idea that the end of winter will be more normal/cold/snowy.  I have no confidence in a below normal december and january in the upper midwest.  The CFSv2 has been adamant about above normal through the winter.  Hard to ignore.

[OKwx2k4]

I am on board with the idea that the end of winter will be more normal/cold/snowy. I have no confidence in a below normal december and january in the upper midwest. The CFSv2 has been adamant about above normal through the winter. Hard to ignore.

Tom pretty well explained my thoughts on the CFSv2. At longer leads one has to admit it is pretty terrible. Example being September. It literally forecast the total opposite of what happened. I take all seasonal forecasting with a grain of salt. I have a great amount of fun looking at them though. I even still buy all of the almanacs every year. There have been cold El Nino winters but most people seem to discredit anything before 1979 nowadays. All we see are warm, warmer and warmest. Not saying I know at all what is going to happen. This is the first year in around the last 5 that I literally have no real idea. I think it will be awesome to learn from and watch it unfold.

[gosaints]

Of course all of the long range models are going to struggle at times not just the CFSv2

[Maxim]

CFSv2 Seasonals are useless. You might as well flip a coin. There's no way we're going to avoid a torch sometime this winter though.

[gosaints]

CFSv2 Seasonals are useless. You might as well flip a coin. There's no way we're going to avoid a torch sometime this winter though.

No more useless than the NASA or GGHGHKSA or any other seasonal model

[weatherfan2012]

New CFS for early winter showing the warmth sucking itself up further northward. Almost predicting normal temperature near I-80.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

Then colder for DJF.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

Then the cold anomaly expands further.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

And levels off towards Spring.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season4.png

that looks something like a 57-58 progression

[weatherfan2012]

Let's repeat that precip pattern in mid-late December at about 28 degrees please. I'm ready for a long hard winter. Most definitely my favorite time of year also.

most analogs are warm most of the nation for december january still some question could see how it gos cold like 58 played out could also see how 2007 could work to with january being a trainstion month febuary-march has the best chance for the true winter exstreams as its tends to be climo in el nino progressions.when the most blocking is favered.

[Geos]

that looks something like a 57-58 progression

 

These maps tell the tale of that winter!

 

 

That February looks like 2007.

 

Source: http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015_08_01_archive.html

[Maxim]

would be awful is that transpired.

[Tom]

1957-58 certainly looks like it could be a heavily weighted analog.  The warm pool in the N PAC is very similar, however, the only difference is this year's El Nino is much stronger.  I wonder what a stronger Modiki type El Nino will do for the U.S. this year.  Fuel stronger systems???

[Geos]

Low solar activity will play a role in our winter somehow. The winter of 1957-1958 featured very high solar activity. Now were like the complete opposite. My gut tells me a fair share of blocking will occur still regardless of an El Niño - due to low solar activity.

 

[james1976]

Low solar activity will play a role in our winter somehow. The winter of 1957-1958 featured very high solar activity. Now were like the complete opposite. My gut tells me a fair share of blocking will occur still regardless of an El Niño - due to low solar activity.

 

http://www.ips.gov.au/Images/Educational/The%20Sun%20and%20Solar%20Activity/Solar%20Cycle/Solar%20Cycle%2019.png

I would agree with that. This year isnt a typical El Nino. I think there will be powerful systems. Where will they track is the big question.

[OKwx2k4]

I would agree with that. This year isnt a typical El Nino. I think there will be powerful systems. Where will they track is the big question.

Yeah. I have to agree. I don't have any reason to be afraid it won't be a great year. I seriously doubt that this el nino will be anything like 57-58. I think a year like 1977-78 is becoming a possibility. I think it was warm through october.

[weatherfan2012]

agree geos that is a big differnce much weaker cycle solar wise then 58 which was a strong solar cycle while solar as phil stated likey won't big the big boss player as it will likey be in a few years down the road it still will be interisting to see how the over all weakness of the cycle plays with the progession blocking wise in the Ao/nao domain with this el nino.that cerlintly could very well be a surpise part that winter could induce.will be intersting to see it play out.

[Tom]

agree geos that is a big differnce much weaker cycle solar wise then 58 which was a strong solar cycle while solar as phil stated likey won't big the big boss player as it will likey be in a few years down the road it still will be interisting to see how the over all weakness of the cycle plays with the progession blocking wise in the Ao/nao domain with this el nino.that cerlintly could very well be a surpise part that winter could induce.will be intersting to see it play out.

Wonder how the AO and ENSO 1.2 Region will play in December's pull back???  Last year's sky high AO/NAO brought the torchy December.  Hopefully there will be Snow storms around just in time for the Holidays this year.

[Snowlover76]

I really need a decent winter to distract me from this total disaster of a Husker season.  Its Bill Callahan 2.0 here and if I at least get some snow it will fell better. 

[OKwx2k4]

I really need a decent winter to distract me from this total disaster of a Husker season. Its Bill Callahan 2.0 here and if I at least get some snow it will fell better.

Yeah. I feel for you guys. I wish Nebraska would have never left the Big 12. Chin up though, could be like what Arkansas is going through this year. Lol

[Snowlover76]

Yeah. I feel for you guys. I wish Nebraska would have never left the Big 12. Chin up though, could be like what Arkansas is going through this year. Lol

Mike Riley is turning out to be a worse hire than Bill Callahan.

 

You can thank the Texass Longhorns (nice to see them suck now, karma can be a mean old bittie) for the Huskers leaving the Big 12.  The Big 10 sucks too, no good rivalries like what they had with Mizzou, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Iowa State.  The Wisconsin and Iowa "rivalries" feel so fake compared to the ones of old in the Big 8/Big 12 

 

That said I'll still be at the game tomorrow. 

[clintbeed1993]

The NAO and AO will be big players this winter.  I think we might need them to go pretty negative to help get cold shots down here.  The El Nino winter of 2009 had a major negative NAO and AO.  One of the blockiest winters of all time.  If we can just get the blocking to occur up North it could be a very good winter for snow lovers.  I would imagine the jetstream will have a more favorable setup for big storms and bringing moisture up from the South.  Cold air is my biggest concern right now.

[Snowlover76]

The NAO and AO will be big players this winter.  I think we might need them to go pretty negative to help get cold shots down here.  The El Nino winter of 2009 had a major negative NAO and AO.  One of the blockiest winters of all time.  If we can just get the blocking to occur up North it could be a very good winter for snow lovers.  I would imagine the jetstream will have a more favorable setup for big storms and bringing moisture up from the South.  Cold air is my biggest concern right now.

im not expecting all that much TBH.  Heck last winter might look good with how I see this one going. 

[Geos]

2009-2010 had a moderate El Niño with a peak of 1.3 ONI index. This winter will be closer to 2.0 at peak probably. I think the region will see a few more rain systems, but I think there will be cold air around for snowstorms. Kind of expecting wild swings in temperatures this winter.

[Geos]

Was just looking at the different global model ENSO plumes for 3.4 forecasts. CFSv2 shows the index just climbing slightly then peaking and heading down come December.

 

 

CMC shows a similar trend.

 

 

All models.

 

 

Noted that the currently pitch and rise is not as steep now. If the CFS is right; were looking at a peak of 2.1 or so.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.orig.html

[OKwx2k4]

I think that looks about right. If we break the 2.0 mark, we shouldn't stay there for too long.

[Tom]

Waters are cooling significantly near Japan/East Asia and a tongue of colder waters is trying to stretch all the way across the Pacific towards Hawaii.  The majority of Global Models are pointing out that a significant trough will develop just north of Hawaii and the SST's are lining up that way.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.8.2015.gif

 

 

 

The classic winters of 1976-77 & 1977-78 had this active Pacific storm train set up.  Will be interesting if it transpires this season.

[OKwx2k4]

Waters are cooling significantly near Japan/East Asia and a tongue of colder waters is trying to stretch all the way across the Pacific towards Hawaii. The majority of Global Models are pointing out that a significant trough will develop just north of Hawaii and the SST's are lining up that way.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.8.2015.gif

 

 

 

The classic winters of 1976-77 & 1977-78 had this active Pacific storm train set up. Will be interesting if it transpires this season.

I think my heart started palpitating a little when I read 1976-77 and 1977-78. Lol. It would be my dream to live through a winter like those 2.

[OKwx2k4]

Don't know if there's anything to it at all but my nephew killed a buck yesterday. While processing it I noticed that it literally had a layer of fat over 1/2 inch thick all over it. Hadn't seen a deer that was fat like that all over before. Maybe it was getting ready for a really cold winter or it was just a sign of the incredibly long growing season we have had this year. Who knows? :-)

[Tom]

Who's ready for maps like these????  It's time to Manifest...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'll take one of those about 350 miles further south. :-)

[clintbeed1993]

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/videos/vb.148018328718825/455857424601579/?type=2&theater

 

Jim Flowers is starting his winter forecast.  Just published this video regarding the 3 year cycles he uses.

[Maxim]

I think my heart started palpitating a little when I read 1976-77 and 1977-78. Lol. It would be my dream to live through a winter like those 2.

Both 76-77 and 77-78 were weak ninos, though.

[Tom]

I'll take one of those about 350 miles further south. :-)

You may want one of these....

[gabel23]

You may want one of these....

I'll take one of those 200 miles northwest.....or one of those west/east based bombs.....

[gabel23]

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/videos/vb.148018328718825/455857424601579/?type=2&theater

 

Jim Flowers is starting his winter forecast.  Just published this video regarding the 3 year cycles he uses.

I've always liked jim flowers, he is much like Gary lezak as he looks at cyclic patterns. I'm very excited to see how things play out this winter, I'm thinking the bigger player will be the ao/nao.

[Geos]

Who's ready for maps like these????  It's time to Manifest...

 

When I first saw this I didn't look at the time stamp! I thought snow was showing up on the latest GFS run!

 

The earliest snowstorm around here was in October. Back in the late 80s I believe. About 5" fell here. So not unheard of, just really rare in October.