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2015-2016 Winter Outlook


Tom

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Thank you jaster220.

 

It wasn't extremely specific but I don't see how we don't see nearly everyone having a great time this year. The west coast is the trickiest. I think they go above average on temperatures but not nearly as much as in the past few seasons. The east will have to be patient this winter and the Northeast may end up slightly below normal in the snowfall category.

 

One of the key 'tells' in the pattern the past few years has been the active weather starting up further west in the fall than where it settles in for the winter. Seeing what is going on out west this year should have us all smiling while we wait on the pattern to settle in.

 

Yep. Mentioned by DT that October snowstorms on the EC are a harbinger of poor winters which we are not seeing at all this autumn. We'll have to be patient wrt seeing where exactly the primary storm track ends up in the Jan/Feb months. Dec 2000 aside, I never count on that month delivering much to mby. Climo says It's Christmas before winter "fun" arrives in earnest. Fun to see the CWA map light up with this storm, and I'm one of the few happy to snap a good ole November gale storm. Not sure if I can recall seeing Hurricane Warn and Bliz Warn our map at once? Anybody?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NASA is an outlier, toss it.

I don't really take the NASA model or the CFSV2 with as much seriousness as I do the other seasonals. CFSv2 just now figured out that it was going to be cold in the west this month. Lol. I enjoy looking at as many models as possible though. Even the ones I don't like. I think people have forgotten where human skill and reasoning comes in, to a certain degree, when it comes to forecasting. I see the reason behind over reliance on them though. If they're wrong, blame the model. If I'm right, go me. Lol

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I would toss the CFSv2 and the NASA model. Nothing is as warm as the CFS and nothing is quite as cold as the NASA model, except the CMC2 model does show a bit blob of cooler than normal readings in the Heartland/southern Plains.

 

My general idea of where the warmer vs. cooler temps will be this winter overall.

 

I think a weak SE ridge will be in play, so that's why I didn't extend the blue too far east. Pretty confident the NW US will be above normal and the Northeast.

There might be a bigger area of near normal temps between Nebraska and North Dakota. I think January into February there will be some decent cold spells that could help bring that area to slightly above normal or near normal.

 

post-7-0-74303600-1447388371_thumb.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CFSv2 might be sniffing out the Aleutian trough Week 3-4...why???  Siberian Air will begin to poor out of Eurasia into the Bearing Sea and the seasonal response Dec-Feb is to place the trough west of where the warmest waters are in the NE PAC.  Coincidentally, where the global models are suggesting the trough deepen during the Winter.

 

Week 3...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111418/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_4.png

 

 

Week 4...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111418/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_5.png

 

 

Also,, the trough will deepen as well from the forcing which will continue to rise near the Dateline...

 

Week 3...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111418/cfs-avg_mslpa_sd5d_cpac_4.png

 

Week 4...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111418/cfs-avg_mslpa_sd5d_cpac_5.png

 

 

 

Interesting clues as we move forward into December...

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That's awesome. Did anyone see the fantasy thanksgiving snowstorm tonight?

 

That's awesome. Did anyone see the fantasy thanksgiving snowstorm tonight?

 

Been busy, map(s) anyone?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here is a teaser put out by Gary Lezak tonight, once piece of the LRC this year. He mentions this will be one pattern we will see repeat this winter. The one caveat to the winter......near to above average temps nation wide. 

 

That would not be a boring winter is the least for either of us.

I think there will be large swings in temperatures all winter long. Kind of like 2007-2008, but maybe not quite that wet.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That would not be a boring winter is the least for either of us.

I think there will be large swings in temperatures all winter long. Kind of like 2007-2008, but maybe not quite that wet.

For sure, he mentions kc will see a wild swing with weather. If that jet stream is the dominant feature, all of us will be in for a hell of a winter and severe weather season.

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Well here is the updated CPC long range outlook (guess) for December 2015

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php

and their long range out look for DJF

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

as you can see the CPC is still thinking it will be a warmer and dryer winter in our area for the most part,
 

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Well here is the updated CPC long range outlook (guess) for December 2015

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php

and their long range out look for DJF

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

as you can see the CPC is still thinking it will be a warmer and dryer winter in our area for the most part,

 

 

 

I am going against the drier part of there forecast. Not ready to buy into that after seeing the last month's weather.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Saw this 500mb map posted in one of the sub forum on Amwx. Showing a SW flow over the Midwest on 11/28. Might this be the dominant pattern this winter? Looks like 2007-2008.

 

post-1389-0-21315800-1448049014.gif

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CFSv2 continues to show an active pattern through the west/central states into the first part of January.  Snow geese in the East may not be to thrilled about this type of pattern.

 

@ Geo's, that SW Flow pattern kicked into gear late October and hasn't quit.  I don't see it breaking down anytime soon.  This same type of pattern is also targeting East Asia with a SW flow regime which correlates to that 500mb pattern you posted above here in the U.S.

 

Forecast models are suggesting a SSW burst to develop in the next 10-15 days over eastern Siberia/Russia.  We'll have to keep an eye on how that evolves and effects the mid/late December period.

 

Check out the current cold state of the stratosphere...Polar Vortex fully in control over the North Pole...

 

 

Day 7...we see warming starting to develop over Russia and trying to dislodge the PV...

 

 

Day 15...completely dislodged...

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Was just looking at the new stratospheric vortex at 30mb. Now the GFS is showing the vortex getting elongated and shoved towards Canada.

 

post-7-0-68103500-1448243298_thumb.gif

 

post-7-0-26696200-1448243373_thumb.gif

 

30mb

 

post-7-0-82263900-1448243438_thumb.gif

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Was just looking at the new stratospheric vortex at 30mb. Now the GFS is showing the vortex getting shoved towards Canada.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015112212/NH_TMP_30mb_198.gif

 

It splits in two pieces at the 5mb level.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015112212/NH_TMP_5mb_174.gif

Images didn't post but I've seen it in another place. Some folks should enjoy what warmer than average days they have coming up.

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Images didn't post but I've seen it in another place. Some folks should enjoy what warmer than average days they have coming up.

 

Oops. Forgot about that. Will redo in a sec.

---

Fixed on last page.

 

Here's the split.

 

post-7-0-84080000-1448243518_thumb.gif

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Share on other sites

Images didn't post but I've seen it in another place. Some folks should enjoy what warmer than average days they have coming up.

 

That's got deep freeze all over it. Freezer door gonna be opened and left that way by the looks of it. We've been "stepping down" since we got active and every system it's been colder than the prior. Not the usual bunch of frost/freezes before snows set in, but stepping down none-the-less. This last step was a huge one. pre-Thanksgiving on the calendar, but looked and felt more like a nice January today. Sunshine and blue skies but below freezing and 8-10" snow depth in my yard.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wont even post the weeklies as the ripping I will take would tell it all

Let's do a case test on this one...I remember in early November it had a torch for the central states to close out November and primarily the west coast cold.  Missed that one.

 

Now, let's see how it performs again for the Week 3 & 4 period...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151122.z500.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151122.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

I'm just as curious as you are to see how well it performs Week 3 & 4 when it's own teleconnections don't agree to what the american model is advertising temp wise.

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